Oops, expect flash prices to jump

lavalamp · 2022-02-10, 01:32

"Western Digital, Kioxia Lose 'At Least' 6.5 Exabytes of 3D NAND Due to Contamination"
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/we...st-65-exabytes

This reminds me of the floods in 2011 that knocked out a lot of HDD production. While the companies seemed to recover from that, I don't think prices ever did. I bought some 2TB drives for £65 before that happened and you'd still pay a similar price for them today.

Edit: Corrected date of Thailand floods.

JWNoctis · 2022-02-10, 04:54

No idea 3D-VNAND chips took that long to produce... I suspect that 6.5EB are mostly in various stages of fabrication when yield went to oblivion. That's a lot of ruined silicon.

How much HDD production capacity was lost over those 2011 floods? I wonder if this might be a supply chain issue which may well impact other fabs and companies too.

lavalamp · 2022-02-11, 15:40

No idea on the capacity loss back then, or even a fair way to compare it since capacities were lower back then.

Seems like the current flash contamination is worse than first reported though:
https://appleinsider.com/articles/22...rices-may-rise

Quote:

A Wells Fargo analyst says when combined with Kioxia's loss of production, the number would be about 16 exabytes lost.

2022-02-10, 01:32	#1
lavalamp Oct 2007 Manchester, UK 2×5×137 Posts	Oops, expect flash prices to jump "Western Digital, Kioxia Lose 'At Least' 6.5 Exabytes of 3D NAND Due to Contamination" https://www.tomshardware.com/news/we...st-65-exabytes This reminds me of the floods in 2011 that knocked out a lot of HDD production. While the companies seemed to recover from that, I don't think prices ever did. I bought some 2TB drives for £65 before that happened and you'd still pay a similar price for them today. Edit: Corrected date of Thailand floods. Last fiddled with by lavalamp on 2022-02-10 at 01:35

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2022-02-10, 04:54	#2
JWNoctis "J. W." Aug 2021 100011₂ Posts	No idea 3D-VNAND chips took that long to produce... I suspect that 6.5EB are mostly in various stages of fabrication when yield went to oblivion. That's a lot of ruined silicon. How much HDD production capacity was lost over those 2011 floods? I wonder if this might be a supply chain issue which may well impact other fabs and companies too.