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View Poll Results: When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
By the end of 2004 2 3.64%
First half of 2005 9 16.36%
Second half of 2005 14 25.45%
First half of 2006 13 23.64%
Second half of 2006 or later. 17 30.91%
Voters: 55. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 2004-06-03, 22:01   #1
Uncwilly
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Question When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?

When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?

We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the e-mail to George by a non-PrimeNet searcher.

Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2004-06-03 at 22:04
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Old 2004-06-03, 22:12   #2
jeff8765
 
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My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.
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Old 2004-06-04, 02:01   #3
Uncwilly
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40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.
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Old 2004-06-04, 02:52   #4
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Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT

Prime Monster will find it.
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Old 2004-06-04, 04:21   #5
Ivan Semenov
 
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Can't see the leader
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Old 2004-06-04, 15:54   #6
ET_
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I noticed two things:

1 - People is working hard on pre-factoring
2 - Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size

I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime.

Luigi
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Old 2004-06-04, 19:00   #7
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I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some non-GIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit non-Mersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...
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Old 2004-09-15, 20:45   #8
Uncwilly
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bump
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Old 2004-09-16, 11:36   #9
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I vote "Second half of 2005". We will see...
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Old 2005-02-04, 00:06   #10
Uncwilly
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Bump

At least 2 people were wrong.
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Old 2005-02-05, 06:29   #11
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My record on publicly-posted predictions is just awful -- really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...
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