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Old 2020-09-15, 12:59   #1068
storm5510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel
...Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55)...
The figures above seem backwards...

What is it that make a person "old?" Is it just a number based on how many years they have been alive? I will be 65 in 15 days. My doc tells me that I am in much better condition than some in their 40's. The state of a persons' health should be factored in somehow.
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Old 2020-09-15, 14:12   #1069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Re fatalities, Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55) https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23...age-race-14863
Life expectancy without Covid19, worldwide is ~73 years. https://www.worldometers.info/demogr...fe-expectancy/
In the US, ~79 years, with a death rate in recent years of about 2.8 million annually.
So you are saying it is ok for old people to die needlessly?
Based upon data from here: https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia
In 2017 in the USofA the 70+ crowd accounted for 75.6% of the deaths from lower respiratory infections and 50-69 adds 20.2% more.
So COVID falls in line with the others.

Quote:
The twenty leading causes of death worldwide: http://deathmeters.info/
Compare the list of underlying conditions in the 94% of US covid19 deaths with comorbidities, to the top 20 causes of deaths list. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ns/ar-BB18wrA7
Consider also to what extent some of those conditions are substantially self inflicted, by choices to eat too much, exercise too little, smoke, abuse alcohol or other substances, drive recklessly, engage in crime and violence, etc.
You obviously don't understand the idea of a comorbidity. If you are on blood thinners and get attacked by a bear and bleed to death, the blood thinners may contribute, but you died from a bear attack. No bear attack and you would not have died. Also, the 94% that you quote is not what you understand. Normally the death certificate would say something like:

Cause of death: acute respiratory failure
Which was caused by: pneumonia
Which was caused by: SARS CoV-2

Complicating illness: diabetes

The last "which was caused by" line is the cause of death, even if the other lines are filled out. Listen to this show, the example above is taken it at about 34:20 ff Sawbones: episode 340: Death-certificates
So the 6% of the time the Dr. just hasn't done their job thoroughly enough (they are likely being run ragged during the pandemic).


And of course this is the standard "blame the victim" mentality. "She was wearing a short dress, so rape was likely". You are trying to make them an "other", not a fellow human that you have to care about. Making people "other" is what spreads all sorts of evil.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2020-09-15 at 14:15
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Old 2020-09-15, 15:36   #1070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Re fatalities, Covid19 is mostly an old person's disease.(60% over 75, 80.7% over 65, 92.6% over 55)
Well, as long as it's mostly old people, who cares? Their lives obviously aren't sacred.

I think it was one of the "Feiffer's fables" cartoons back in the day, with the conclusion, "The pre-born are innocent and deserve our love. The post-born are guilty and deserve what they get." A variant on "Life begins at conception and ends at birth." Or, "Most of the pre-existing health problems of people who die of COVID-19 are due to smoking, drinking, poor diet, and lack of exercise. So screw 'em."

I am reminded of something I watched on PBS way back in <Google Google> 1973. It was a series entitled The Ascent of Man. The passage that came to mind is online. It is Jacob Bronowski at Auschwitz.

Quote:
There are two parts to the human dilemma. One is the belief that the end justifies the means. That push-button philosophy, that deliberate deafness to suffering has become the monster in the war machine. The other is the betrayal of the human spirit. The assertion of dogma that closes the mind and turns a nation, a civilization into a regiment of ghosts — obedient ghosts, or tortured ghosts.

It's said that science will dehumanize people and turn them into numbers. That's false — tragically false.

Look for yourself.

This is the concentration camp and crematorium at Auschwitz. This is where people were turned into numbers. Into this pond were flushed the ashes of some four million people. And that was not done by gas — it was done by arrogance, it was done by dogma, it was done by ignorance.

When people believe that they have absolute knowledge, with no test in reality, this is how they behave. This is what men do when they aspire to the knowledge of gods.

Science is a very human form of knowledge. We are always at the brink of the known; we always feel forward for what is to be hoped. Every judgment in science stands on the edge of error and is personal. Science is a tribute to what we can know although we are fallible…

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2020-09-15 at 15:38 Reason: xignif ostpy
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Old 2020-09-15, 16:49   #1071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Lockdown was chosen as an intrusive government policy so politicians could be seen to be doing something, in March, until more was known about the virus.
Lockdown seems to have an effect.

US numbers went down after lockdown and then back up when you reopened too early.

Italy locked down completely and numbers went down dramatically with a slight rise recently as things open back up.

Denmark's numbers went down after lockdown, and now back up after we reopened too much.

Sweden never locked down and numbers did not go down until July when some stricter measures were implemented with less people allowed to gather at once etc.
But their total numbers: 87,345 infected and 5,851 deaths are way higher than for Denmark: 21,008 infected and 633 deaths even though Sweden only have ~75% more people (10.3M vs 5.8M), and this might be related to not implementing lockdowns.
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Last fiddled with by ATH on 2020-09-15 at 16:50
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Old 2020-09-15, 17:13   #1072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATH View Post
Lockdown seems to have an effect.

US numbers went down after lockdown and then back up when you reopened too early.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Here is the update of my graph with this weeks numbers. The last 2 weeks numbers are not plotted as they are vastly incomplete. I expect the week 31 number to go up to closer to 10,000 (maybe even 11,000) before it settles down.
USA election day is on week 45.
Looking at the chart that I have been producing, remember that this deaths from all causes. Deaths from COVID infections lag after the diagnosed infection. (Someone who worked for the organization that I work for was on a ventilator for 45 days before dying. That with days before being on it make that a 7 week lag.) So yes the lockdown dropped the spread and the easing of restrictions allowed it to flourish. 4 weeks after the easing of restrictions the death toll started rising again noticeably.

And about my prediction, week 31 is at 10,426 (above the mean) and saw a delta of ~1,200 last week. This week it should go up by about 650 as the data continue to accumulate. This is an independent death metric (not tied into an metric directly about C19). This is deaths above the 6 year previous mean for that week.

And for handy comparison here are the previous version of the chart so one can see how the data developed over time. (note the y-axis scale change a few times.)
https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...1&d=1588874260
https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...8&d=1589561940
https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...6&d=1591370361
https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...1&d=1595022767
https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...9&d=1598024787
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Old 2020-09-25, 22:20   #1073
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
And about my prediction, week 31 is at 10,426 (above the mean) and saw a delta of ~1,200 last week. This week it should go up by about 650 as the data continue to accumulate.
I have updated the chart and added a simplistic prediction line.
This week + (this week-last week)*0.75 + (week before last - last week)*0.25
Again the last 2 weeks are not plotted because the data are vastly incomplete.
The peak is now just over 25,000.
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Old 2020-09-25, 23:07   #1074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xyzzy View Post
That is easy to say when you are in a position where you really aren't putting yourself at risk.
That's an odd rebuttal, given that I gave an example where I did exactly that, and had consequences.
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Old 2020-09-25, 23:27   #1075
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There are numerous charts by nation of death rate and excess death rate, about midway down the page at https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-...c-cbdf5b386938
The covid19-attributed excess deaths range widely as percentages. Sweden without lockdown fared better in percentage terms than the US with lockdown, but not as well as some of its neighbors. There are many confounding effects on these numbers. Overcounting covid19 deaths as in cases where acute trauma occurred but the death certificate said covid19. Overall death rate increase observed is higher than covid19-attributed in some nations,and that may relate to the significant shutdown of many types of medical treatment for several months. (I'm waiting 9 months for a rescheduled appointment with one doctor, and waited several months for another. And it's clear that is not unusual these days.) Some are actively avoiding medical care out of fear of being exposed to covid, and some of them are dying of heart attacks etc that might have been avoided or treated with more access to care. From the FT page, "Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries also have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period." Is this mostly from an inadequate healthcare system, culture, government response, what?
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Old 2020-09-25, 23:42   #1076
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
There are numerous charts by nation of death rate and excess death rate, about midway down the page at https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-...c-cbdf5b386938
Sweden without lockdown fared better in percentage terms than the US with lockdown, but not as well as some of its neighbors.
The U.S. lockdown was incomplete and considerable amount of the states reopened up too early which didn't follow the health guidelines.

Sweden is definitely performing better recently while USA is expecting the surge as soon as the first major cold front arrives to the Midwest regions.
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Old 2020-09-25, 23:44   #1077
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Suicide rate was seen to increase related to the spanish flu epidemic a century ago. Also in Hong Kong related to SARS in 2003. Effects are projected to last for years. Likely mechanisms are discussed. https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/advan...caa202/5857612

On counting all the deaths, not just the covid19, as significant: https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-mus...m-coronavirus/

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2020-09-25 at 23:45
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Old 2020-09-25, 23:49   #1078
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Suicide rate was seen to increase related to the spanish flu epidemic a century ago. Also in Hong Kong related to SARS in 2003. Effects are projected to last for years. Likely mechanisms are discussed. https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/advan...caa202/5857612

On counting all the deaths, not just the covid19, as significant: https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-mus...m-coronavirus/
All lockdowns had significant economic damages, thus it's critical for the people to follow the orders during the meantime. The stimulus bills are only the temporary solutions, the schools and business have to open up eventually, if the resurgence of the virus keep stand on the way of the middle class groups, lot of unemployment and foreclosures will be expected which ultimately lead to the increasing of the suicidal rates.
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