Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[Dr Sardonicus]

There's a couple in my neighborhood that has been through trying times of late. The husband has had dementia (Alzheimer's) for some years, and recently it began progressing more rapidly than it previously had been. But he still knew his two little dogs, and still doted on them. When the weather was good, I was able to get him out with the dogs to walk. I'd hold one leash, he'd hold the other.

At his most recent checkup, he was having difficulty speaking, and was experiencing some respiratory distress. The most recent occasion when I got him out with the dogs, he was wheezing and struggling to draw breath. We didn't walk very far.

His respiratory distress became worse. He was also becoming more lethargic. His wife, sensing it was something serious, repeatedly tried to get him in for diagnostic testing and possibly treatment. But as long as his blood pressure, temperature, and blood oxygen weren't too bad, it was nothing doing -- because of the danger from COVID-19.

A few days ago, she couldn't wake him up. His blood oxygen was dangerously low. She called the doctor and told him the readings. The doctor told her to have him transported to the hospital by ambulance. He was put on oxygen and transported. At the hospital, he was placed in the ICU and put on a ventilator.

Next day, his vitals were looking better. He was responding to verbal commands. They were talking about discharging him in a couple of days. Nobody was allowed into the hospital, of course, but family members could speak to him by phone to let him know he wasn't alone. A COVID-19 test came back negative. Cultures indicated bacterial pneumonia.

Yesterday, the wife returned from visiting her daughter who lives nearby. I was talking with someone when she arrived. She was in tears and at the point of collapse. Her husband was dying. She had returned home to change into some nicer clothes. Me and my company, fearing she might not make it in time, both urged her to go immediately. "It's come as you are." But she just had to change her clothes. Before she left I told her I'd take care of the dogs while she was gone.

She took off, driving a bit shakily. But she made it intact and with hours to spare.

As her husband's death became imminent, family members were permitted, one by one, to go to his side. They managed video calls to relatives in other states. Their son drove in from out of state.

I talked to the son this morning. One of the things he said was, "COVID killed him, but he didn't have COVID."

[kladner]

Originally Posted by retina

Haha. So what are the other 25% of women if they aren't female?

Aliens! Run for your life!

I, for one, welcome our new alien overlords.

Does the Reaper count as an alien overlord?

https://mashable.com/article/daniel-...orida-beaches/

Reopening worries some citizens, medical professionals, and elected officials, but one Florida man is dedicated to doing what he can to flatten the curve. Attorney Daniel Uhlfelder said he will tour the state's beaches on May 1 to remind fellow Floridians to stay home.

On May 1 I will be touring Florida in Grim Reaper attire reminding Floridians to stay home during the pandemic. pic.twitter.com/VvWqxI48Ec
— Daniel Uhlfelder (@DWUhlfelderLaw) April 25, 2020

But wait! There's still more! The Onion proves yet again that it has become Real News!
https://local.theonion.com/man-just-...e-t-1842493766

EVANSTON, WY—Throwing bottles of bleach, ammonia, and Drano into a cart at his local grocery store, area man Troy Mitchell was reportedly stocking up on one of every cleaning product he could find Wednesday in case President Donald Trump announces it is a coronavirus cure. “I got toilet bowl cleaner, carpet cleaner, Swiffer WetJet refills—you name it—just so me and my family will be ready if the president announces one of these things can treat Chinese virus,”

Published 3/25/20.

[LaurV]

Haha, you guys, I had to read that 3 times
So, you actually have women there which are not female?

(no issue, here we have them too!)

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by VBCurtis

That's great news- we expect only 50x as many people to get infected by this virus as get the flu each year, so fatalities might only be 50x as bad if we just go back to business as usual.

Infecting 50 times as many people in the US with Covid19 as the flu does normally would be a neat trick, given that https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html shows 9.3 million to 45 million infected for a flu year in the US, and the population of the US is about 328 million; 9.3M to 45M x 50 is 465M to 2.25 Billion(1.42 to 6.86 times the total population)

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by kladner

tRump's cover story is that he was being sarcastic, because the reporters were being sarcastic. I wonder who thought it up for him.

EDIT: So much for the sarcasm tale.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mp-coronavirus

Re chlorine dioxide,

they'll probably be using chlorine dioxide to disinfect the existing large halls in which temporary hospitals were created and later dismantled, before returning them to their prior public use. I doubt it is also applicable for air supply disinfection for occupied space such as hospitals. I suspect 254nm UV in the air handling units, well baffled is a better way to go. Aggressive chemicals in the air seem like a bad idea for people already suffering from lung damage. (See the bleach based mask thread.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlori..._public_crises
Chlorine dioxide has many applications as an oxidizer or disinfectant.[11] Chlorine dioxide can be used for air disinfection and was the principal agent used in the decontamination of buildings in the United States after the 2001 anthrax attacks.[32]
(link for [11] is only general; link for [32] failed to show related content)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlori...nd_supplements
Chlorine dioxide is toxic, hence limits on exposure to it are needed to ensure its safe use. The United States Environmental Protection Agency has set a maximum level of 0.8 mg/L for chlorine dioxide in drinking water. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), an agency of the United States Department of Labor, has set an 8-hour permissible exposure limit of 0.1 ppm in air (0.3 mg/m3) for people working with chlorine dioxide.
https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxfaqs/tf.asp?id=581&tid=108
https://web.archive.org/web/20121204...cognition.html

[chalsall]

Originally Posted by kriesel

I suspect 254nm UV in the air handling units, well baffled is a better way to go.

Can anyone point me to some scientifically (read: empirically) based information on how good UV is at killing this (and many other) thing(s)?

Being 13.2 degrees above the equator, I think leaving (for example) delivered documents of unknown provenance in the sun for an hour should be more than sufficient -- both the heat and the high-energy photons would break up the RNA really well within that time.

However, Linda doesn't trust that, and refuses to accept my (based on physics assumptions) modeling in my head. If anyone could provide data to settle this "discussion" between us, it would be appreciated. (Seriously.)

P.S. Barbados has only had 77 confirmed cases (with reasonably rational testing), and six deaths (population ~250K). The heat has (?) to have something to do with this -- we didn't shut-down until after there had already been confirmed community transfer.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by kriesel

Infecting 50 times as many people in the US with Covid19 as the flu does normally would be a neat trick, given that https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html shows 9.3 million to 45 million infected for a flu year in the US, and the population of the US is about 328 million; 9.3M to 45M x 50 is 465M to 2.25 Billion(1.42 to 6.86 times the total population)

I suggest we focus on deaths - 61,000 is highest seasonal-flu death count in last 10 years, so Covid-19 death count will surpass that in the coming week. 2 added key differences:

1. We have reasonably effective vaccines against flu, and many of the annual flu deaths could be prevented by wider use of same;

2. AFAWK, asymptomatic and multi-mode transmission are *way* higher for Covid-19, one of the reasons the global economy is in wide-scale shutdown mode. The attendant mass job losses as in the U.S. carry their own mortality and wellness risks. Those flu-death counts are with people doing their usual thing, including going to work sick because of job and income pressure - had we not done wide-scale shutdown and unprecedented social-distancing measures, the current Covid-19 death count would likely be several times higher.

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

I suggest we focus on deaths - 61,000 is highest seasonal-flu death count in last 10 years, so Covid-19 death count will surpass that in the coming week. 2 added key differences:

1. We have reasonably effective vaccines against flu, and many of the annual flu deaths could be prevented by wider use of same;

2. AFAWK, asymptomatic and multi-mode transmission are *way* higher for Covid-19, one of the reasons the global economy is in wide-scale shutdown mode. The attendant mass job losses as in the U.S. carry their own mortality and wellness risks. Those flu-death counts are with people doing their usual thing, including going to work sick because of job and income pressure - had we not done wide-scale shutdown and unprecedented social-distancing measures, the current Covid-19 death count would likely be several times higher.

Conversely, often without even testing for the presence of Covid19, deaths are being attributed to it based on symptoms. There's a lot of symptom overlap. And in the case where there had not been a Covid19 virus at all, some number of those with comorbidities would have died anyway of one or more of their comorbidities, although the timing might be a little different. Even gauging which of several diseases is the primary issue is a judgment call. If the patient had Covid19, or was thought to have Covid19, Covid19 apparently is presumed to be the primary disease. The woman I rented a room from during college died of pneumonia at 92 (years ago). Someone in a similar situation in the same jurisdiction now would probably be counted toward Covid19. We'll never know what the net effect of Covid19 was on deaths. But we will know after the fact whether the net annual rate was higher or lower than the year before. And as Dr. Sardonicus' neighbor story shows, denial or postponement of medical care to people without Covid19 has a role in elevating the total death rate. Some fraction of the pandemic-period death rate is due to that, not the usual causes or the new cause. Meanwhile medical caregivers are being furloughed, cancer patients are going without biopsies, chemo or other procedures, etc.
Sweden and Israel are commonly referenced as cases where more measured responses were used. Sweden has about 2/3 the case rate per million population as the US currently does. Israel has about 2/3 the case rate and a considerably lower death rate per million. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Overall, from all causes, 8.88/1000 death rate is expected for the US in 2020. https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/death-rate On a population of 328 million, that's about 2,912,640 Americans dying in 2020, about 48. times the flu rate you gave. Shifts in counting as cause A vs. cause B won't affect the total at all. Small percentage shifts in attribution to Covid19 instead of pneumonia or heart disease can affect (inflate) the Covid19 stats by a considerable percentage.
There was a prominent spike recently in pneumonia and influenz-like mortality. And also two years earlier. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[VBCurtis]

Originally Posted by kriesel

Infecting 50 times as many people in the US with Covid19 as the flu does normally would be a neat trick, given that https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html shows 9.3 million to 45 million infected for a flu year in the US, and the population of the US is about 328 million; 9.3M to 45M x 50 is 465M to 2.25 Billion(1.42 to 6.86 times the total population)

I had 10 million in mind for 'normal' flu, and a nonzero reinfection rate for Covid. That is not what I said, as I used "people" rather than "cases". Mea culpa.

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by chalsall

Can anyone point me to some scientifically (read: empirically) based information on how good UV is at killing this (and many other) thing(s)?

Being 13.2 degrees above the equator, I think leaving (for example) delivered documents of unknown provenance in the sun for an hour should be more than sufficient -- both the heat and the high-energy photons would break up the RNA really well within that time.

However, Linda doesn't trust that, and refuses to accept my (based on physics assumptions) modeling in my head. If anyone could provide data to settle this "discussion" between us, it would be appreciated. (Seriously.)

P.S. Barbados has only had 77 confirmed cases (with reasonably rational testing), and six deaths (population ~250K). The heat has (?) to have something to do with this -- we didn't shut-down until after there had already been confirmed community transfer.

Start with a discussion of what level of reduction she would find acceptable, given that higher reduction ratios will take longer/cost more. If her position is that nothing less than 100.0000000% will do, it's over, surrender.

[ugly2dog]

Originally Posted by chalsall

Can anyone point me to some scientifically (read: empirically) based information on how good UV is at killing this (and many other) thing(s)?

Here is a start 1, 2, 3. These are PDFs on the ASHRAE [American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers],
I work at an MEP engineering firm doing control design. UV lights have been standard in AHUs for hospitals, either at day one or for future installation.
One recent news release advises against home UV wands for home use [can't find the link ATM]. Normally they don't want untrained people causing more harm than good. Also you must us the correct type [UV-C].
Good luck and stay safe.