mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Fun Stuff > Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2021-09-16, 15:59   #1442
chalsall
If I May
 
chalsall's Avatar
 
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados

100111001111002 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Quoting the quote: Crisis care standards mean that scarce resources like ICU beds will be allotted to the patients most likely to survive. Other patients will be treated with less effective methods or, in dire cases, given pain relief and other palliative care.
I regularly work with people who work at this level. It puts a psychological toll on them.

"God helps those who help themselves" is little comfort to a Doctor or Nurse et al who has to make a decision like that.
chalsall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-16, 16:26   #1443
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

53·41 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
I regularly work with people who work at this level. It puts a psychological toll on them.

"God helps those who help themselves" is little comfort to a Doctor or Nurse et al who has to make a decision like that.
And it's not just COVID-19 patients that are affected.
Quote:
"The situation is dire - we don't have enough resources to adequately treat the patients in our hospitals, whether you are there for COVID-19 or a heart attack or because of a car accident," Idaho Department of Welfare Director Dave Jeppesen said in statement.
So these unfortunate doctors and nurses will probably have to explain to relatives of an accident victim or cardiac patient that their loved one died because of COVID-19, even if they didn't have COVID-19.

Quote:
On Wednesday, nearly 92% of all of the COVID-19 patients in St. Luke's hospitals were unvaccinated. Sixty one of the hospital's 78 intensive care unit patients had COVID-19.
That 92% is somewhat lower than I might have expected, but IIRC recent studies have indicated that vaccine immunity might be wearing off as time goes on.

Of course, as more people get vaccinated, the percentage of patients with "breakthrough" infections will likely go up. But if it's a higher percentage of a higher number, that ain't good.
Dr Sardonicus is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-16, 23:28   #1444
a1call
 
a1call's Avatar
 
"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Remote to Here/There

87E16 Posts
Default

COVID-19 has now killed 1 in 500 Americans


https://www.popsci.com/health/one-in...ad-from-covid/

Hard to grasp the enormous pain and suffering of the souls who have perished.
May they Rest-in-Peace.
a1call is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 00:04   #1445
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

22·7·192 Posts
Default

That is more than the population of Detroit, Las Vegas, Portland (OR), or Pittsburgh and Cincinnati put together.
Next stop Boston.
Uncwilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 00:06   #1446
chalsall
If I May
 
chalsall's Avatar
 
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados

22×34×31 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by a1call View Post
Hard to grasp the enormous pain and suffering of the souls who have perished.
This isn't meant as flippant, nor heartless... The greater pain is felt by those left behind.
chalsall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 06:33   #1447
wblipp
 
wblipp's Avatar
 
"William"
May 2003
New Haven

23×103 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
overall, all vaccines:
death, 20 ppm
overall, All Americans
death by Covid 2,000 ppm

I wonder which reasoning errors are predominant in deciding against the Covid vaccine. Is it innumeracy? Or perhaps base effect? Most of my liberal friends blame ignorant succumbing to intentionally false demagoguery in support of political agendas. But at least one of these liberals is an antivaxxer on advice of her homeopathic "physician."
wblipp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 08:19   #1448
kruoli
 
kruoli's Avatar
 
"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE

2·383 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
This isn't meant as flippant, nor heartless... The greater pain is felt by those left behind.
The question is if you can compare physical and psychological pain directly. At least one could say that (generally speaking) a single person who suffered from COVID and died will likely leave multiple left behind griefing.
kruoli is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 15:17   #1449
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

2×11×269 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wblipp View Post
overall, All Americans
death by Covid 2,000 ppm

I wonder which reasoning errors are predominant in deciding against the Covid vaccine. Is it innumeracy? Or perhaps base effect? Most of my liberal friends blame ignorant succumbing to intentionally false demagoguery in support of political agendas. But at least one of these liberals is an antivaxxer on advice of her homeopathic "physician."
None of the following should be mistaken as an antivax position. It is a position in favor of rational independent decision making.

There seems to be an implicit assumption in your post that deciding against vaccination shows a reasoning error has occurred.
It's not as simple as comparing 20 ppm vs 2000 ppm fatality rates.

The 20ppm is an avoidable risk. The 2000 ppm is modified, not eliminated, by vaccination. It is also to varying degrees an avoidable risk.

For many of the 2000 ppm, it's if one thing doesn't get you, another will, in a short time frame.
Comorbidities matter. In pre-covid times, death rate was ~3M annually in the US, and flu often nudged over the brink those whose health was already precarious. Now it's often covid does the nudging. Increased mortality is much less than the covid19 count.

I know someone who's 96. He's fully vaccinated, fit, healthy, alert, and active. The actuarial tables say he has a ~50% chance of becoming 98. He's rational, understands, does not make long term plans.

Who's to say that someone in his position is not reasoning correctly, to refuse vaccination, leaving a set of doses for someone else with perhaps decades more life expectancy to protect? (I don't think his choice to be vaccinated was a reasoning error. But I also don't think a sober consideration of how few years or months vaccination might extend his life and choosing to let someone younger and at greater risk, because they're still working a job that presents exposure risk and they have a comorbidity or two, receive those doses instead or sooner and live perhaps much longer, would have been an error. It can come down to personal moral values. We are a very long way from full vaccination globally, and limited supply is part of that. Vaccinating essential workers before the bulk of the geriatric population was correct in my view.)

In the long term, mortality for most multicellular organisms is 100%. The actuarial tables for American humans end at 119 or 120. The last few years in the table, the values are the same for male and female, at least partly because there's so little data in that age range.
kriesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 16:19   #1450
a1call
 
a1call's Avatar
 
"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Remote to Here/There

1000011111102 Posts
Default

That is kind of like saying: It's a losing battle anyway, why prolong the misery when we are all going to die sooner or later? In that regards being 97 or 7 makes no difference. However we have a built in instinct to avoid the Game-Over at all most costs. Regardless of your/our religious beliefs (or lack thereof) none of us really knows what's yet to come, hence the logic and the evolutionary programmed-instinct at avoiding the end as much as possible regardless of one's age.
My 2 cents.
a1call is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 16:31   #1451
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

2×11×269 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by a1call View Post
the logic and the evolutionary programmed-instinct at avoiding the end as much as possible regardless of one's age.
At what cost to someone else? That consideration appears on both sides of the ledger, covid-wise.
There's a Darwinian gain sometimes to risking harm to self for a sufficiently worthwhile chance to save someone else (a descendant, cousin, sibling, or more than one). Or some other part of one's community. 343 NYFD firefighters died 2001-09-11, and around 14,000 occupants of the World Trade Center lived.

Some things are literally worth dying for, in that sense. Choose well. And may such awful choice situations be rare.
kriesel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-17, 16:46   #1452
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

53×41 Posts
Default

Even the most impeccably reasoned conclusions are no better than the assumptions they're based on. Garbage in, garbage out.

From a Forbes article:
Quote:
Why People Refuse Vaccines
Why are people not getting vaccinated? These disparate groups of people who are refusing the vaccine have a variety of reasons, but here are some commonalities between them.

75% OF ADULTS REFUSING VACCINATION ARE SKEPTICAL OF BOTH COVID AND ITS VACCINES
The vast majority - 90% - of this group say they are not worried about getting sick from Covid-19 and are less convinced the vaccines work, according to Kaiser polling.

Those with no plans to get vaccinated also expressed distrust in companies making vaccines (17%) and against vaccines more generally (12%).

36% OF ADULTS ON THE VACCINE FENCE ARE MOSTLY WORRIED ABOUT SIDE EFFECTS
Concerns about side effects were consistently the top concern for different groups open to taking the vaccine, according to polling by Morning Consult.

Fears the vaccines moved through clinical trials too quickly was another top concern among, reported by 31% surveyed.


22% OF UNVACCINATED ADULTS DON'T THINK VACCINES PREVENT DYING FROM COVID-19
14% of unvaccinated people believe the shots are minimally effective at preventing death from Covid-19 and 19% say they do nothing to prevent serious illness, hospitalization or becoming infected if exposed, according to polling by Kaiser. Only 2% of vaccinated adults hold similar opinions.

According to a recent U.K.study, vaccines drastically lower the odds of severe illness, hospitalization and death among the few vaccinated people infected with Covid-19.
Dr Sardonicus is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


All times are UTC. The time now is 23:51.


Tue Nov 30 23:51:24 UTC 2021 up 130 days, 18:20, 0 users, load averages: 1.64, 1.37, 1.37

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.