mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Fun Stuff > Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2021-11-06, 15:16   #1497
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

23·7·109 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
"The easiest way to get a boy to do something stupid is a girl."
Ah yes. Powerful drugs in certain age brackets, those hormones are.
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-08, 08:59   #1498
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

10111110110002 Posts
Default

Dramatic drop in effectiveness of all 3 vaccines available to USA residents over 6 months. (J&J worst of all.) Results for March vs September, so they've had ~2 months to drop further.
http://coronavirusuptodate.com/study...nes-over-time/
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-08, 13:39   #1499
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2×2,677 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Dramatic drop in effectiveness of all 3 vaccines available to USA residents over 6 months. (J&J worst of all.) Results for March vs September, so they've had ~2 months to drop further.
http://coronavirusuptodate.com/study...nes-over-time/
The article cited was originally published in the Los Angeles Times.

I'm not sure it's realistic to expect the complete prevention of any symptomatic infection at all.

The article indicates that protection against severe illness and death also declined, but held up much better than ability to prevent symptomatic infection altogether.

The interview quoted in this post may be pertinent.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-08, 14:41   #1500
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

23·7·109 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I'm not sure it's realistic to expect the complete prevention of any symptomatic infection at all.
I'm not sure anyone here claimed it was.
The LA Times article is better than others I've seen.
Including a functioning link to the original Science report.
Delta variant (eg pathogen evolution) is thought to be more causative of the effectiveness decline, than antibody fade.
If the application for emergency use authorization were made today, J&J would be rejected, & Pfizer might be also, based on limited effectiveness.
It's a good thing Merck & Pfizer's treatments have been developed.

The arms race will continue on both sides.
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-08, 15:55   #1501
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2·2,677 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I'm not sure it's realistic to expect the complete prevention of any symptomatic infection at all.
I'm not sure anyone here claimed it was.
It's in the definitions [my emphasis].
Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Dramatic drop in effectiveness of all 3 vaccines available to USA residents over 6 months.
The "effectiveness" of a vaccine is its ability to prevent new cases of the disease, relative to unvaccinated people "in the real world." (The corresponding term for results in studies under controlled conditions is "efficacy.")

I don't know any term for a vaccine's ability to reduce the severity of a disease, relative to unvaccinated people.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-08, 16:48   #1502
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

23×7×109 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
It's in the definitions [my emphasis].The "effectiveness" of a vaccine is its ability to prevent new cases of the disease, relative to unvaccinated people "in the real world." (The corresponding term for results in studies under controlled conditions is "efficacy.")

I don't know any term for a vaccine's ability to reduce the severity of a disease, relative to unvaccinated people.
The Science article distinguishes between effectiveness of prevention of infection, and prevention (really substantial postponement) of death, and notes they did not attempt to determine changes in effectiveness in preventing hospitalization. Hospitalization and death seem like pretty well defined severity thresholds to me.
Thanks for the LA Times link BTW.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-11-08 at 16:49
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-09, 00:57   #1503
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2·2,677 Posts
Default

Couple of COVID-19 related items in the news...

Chinese journalist imprisoned over Covid reporting in desperate need of medical care, says family
Quote:
Hong Kong (CNN) Zhang Zhan, a citizen journalist imprisoned for reporting on China's initial Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan in early 2020, is in desperate need of medical care, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW).

The US-based rights group is calling on authorities in Beijing to release Zhang, a former lawyer, who was detained in May 2020 and sentenced in December to four years in prison for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble" -- a charge commonly used by the Chinese government to target dissidents and human rights activists.

The 38-year-old has been on multiple hunger strikes since being detained and was briefly hospitalized but was sent back to prison despite her worsening health.
Zhang's mother, who had a video visit with her in October, said her daughter could not hold her head up for lack of strength -- she is 5 feet, 10 inches tall (1.78 meters), yet now weighs under 88 pounds (about 40 kilograms), and urgently needs medical treatment.
The U.S. lifts the pandemic travel ban and opens the doors to international visitors
Quote:
The U.S. lifted restrictions Monday on travel from a long list of countries including Mexico, Canada and most of Europe, allowing tourists to make long-delayed trips and family members to reconnect with loved ones after more than a year and a half apart because of the pandemic.

Starting Monday, the U.S. is accepting fully vaccinated travelers at airports and land borders, doing away with a COVID-19 restriction that dates back to the Trump administration. The new rules allow air travel from previously restricted countries as long as the traveler has proof of vaccination and a negative COVID-19 test. Land travel from Mexico and Canada will require proof of vaccination but no test.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-09, 17:48   #1504
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2·2,677 Posts
Default

An article in Military.com mentioned something I had wondered about WRT military personnel seeking a religious exemption from the COVID-19 vaccine mandate: Military Chaplains Weighing Religious Exemptions Ahead of Vaccine Deadlines
Quote:
With the coronavirus vaccine, some Christians, for example, have objected to accepting shots tested on laboratory-grown cells that descended from fetal cells aborted decades earlier, according to Eve Schatelowitz, an attorney based in Round Rock, Texas. The vaccines themselves contain no aborted fetal cells, according to the FDA.

That issue complicates the sincerity determination for chaplains when the same service members objecting to the coronavirus vaccine for fetal-cell reasons did not object to other military-mandated vaccines that used the same process, such as the chickenpox and hepatitis A vaccines.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-10, 00:31   #1505
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2×2,677 Posts
Default

This AP story about Romania seemed all too familiar...

Morgues, hospitals struggle with COVID-19 deaths in Romania
Quote:
BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) - The morgue in Romania's main hospital has no space for the dead any more. In a stark illustration of the human cost of the coronavirus surge sweeping the nation, bodies of COVID-19 victims, wrapped in black plastic bags, line a hallway of the hospital in the capital, Bucharest.
<snip>
Frustrated and overworked, Romania's doctors have been struggling to cope.

"A village vanishes daily in Romania!" gasped Dr. Catalin Cirstoiu, the head of the Bucharest University Emergency Hospital. "What about in a week or a month? A larger village? Or a city? Where do we stop?"

Experts have blamed the soaring deaths on the low vaccination rate in Romania where about 40% of the population has been fully vaccinated - far lower than the European Union's average of 75%.

The low rates here and elsewhere in the region are believed to be the result of a general mistrust in the authorities and institutions, education gaps and deeply-rooted anti-vaccination movements, that even include some top doctors.
<snip>
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-12, 16:48   #1506
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2×2,677 Posts
Default

The Coronavirus: DOD Response site has some interesting figures. The number of doses administered exceeds doses delivered. This is explained in the Notes:
Quote:
The total doses administered rate can be higher than the total doses delivered rate because for inventory purposes mRNA vaccine vials have a set number of doses, but in practice additional doses may be extracted.
Also, the "Service Member" total includes Reserve and National Guard.

Approximately 1.8 million service members have been either partially or fully vaccinated. As of November 10 there have been 251,698 cases of COVID-19 among service members, with 2,272 hospitalized and 75 deaths. That's a huge incidence rate, with very low hospitalization and death rates.

I haven't tracked down all the DOD Civilian figures, but apparently the vaccination status of at least 400,000 DOD civilian employees is unknown. The site lists 71,520 civilian cases with 2,046 hospitalizations and 366 deaths. For Contractors, the figures are 24,423 cases, 682 hospitalizations, and 125 deaths.
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-11-12, 17:32   #1507
Dr Sardonicus
 
Dr Sardonicus's Avatar
 
Feb 2017
Nowhere

2·2,677 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
How long until the Moderna COVID vaccine gets full approval? I don't know, but Moderna put in its application about a month after Pfizer did, so my best guess would be about a month.
<snip>
Gee, that worked out well. Almost three months and nothing in prospect that I could find.

It seems that Moderna's submission for full use authorization was not complete until August 25, two days after the FDA approved the Pfizer 2-dose vaccine. I don't know where that puts the time line other than "later."

EDIT: Plowing through this story, I got a time frame. Approval of the Pfizer vaccine took 97 days after it completed its submission. If the FDA moves as expeditiously on the Moderna vaccine as it did with the Pfizer vaccine, full approval for the Moderna vaccine could come in early December. But it seems that that's 40% of the "normal" time required. At "normal" speed, it would be late April.

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-11-12 at 20:58 Reason: As indicated
Dr Sardonicus is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


All times are UTC. The time now is 00:18.


Sat Jan 22 00:18:04 UTC 2022 up 182 days, 18:47, 0 users, load averages: 1.60, 1.45, 1.39

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.

≠ ± ∓ ÷ × · − √ ‰ ⊗ ⊕ ⊖ ⊘ ⊙ ≤ ≥ ≦ ≧ ≨ ≩ ≺ ≻ ≼ ≽ ⊏ ⊐ ⊑ ⊒ ² ³ °
∠ ∟ ° ≅ ~ ‖ ⟂ ⫛
≡ ≜ ≈ ∝ ∞ ≪ ≫ ⌊⌋ ⌈⌉ ∘ ∏ ∐ ∑ ∧ ∨ ∩ ∪ ⨀ ⊕ ⊗ 𝖕 𝖖 𝖗 ⊲ ⊳
∅ ∖ ∁ ↦ ↣ ∩ ∪ ⊆ ⊂ ⊄ ⊊ ⊇ ⊃ ⊅ ⊋ ⊖ ∈ ∉ ∋ ∌ ℕ ℤ ℚ ℝ ℂ ℵ ℶ ℷ ℸ 𝓟
¬ ∨ ∧ ⊕ → ← ⇒ ⇐ ⇔ ∀ ∃ ∄ ∴ ∵ ⊤ ⊥ ⊢ ⊨ ⫤ ⊣ … ⋯ ⋮ ⋰ ⋱
∫ ∬ ∭ ∮ ∯ ∰ ∇ ∆ δ ∂ ℱ ℒ ℓ
𝛢𝛼 𝛣𝛽 𝛤𝛾 𝛥𝛿 𝛦𝜀𝜖 𝛧𝜁 𝛨𝜂 𝛩𝜃𝜗 𝛪𝜄 𝛫𝜅 𝛬𝜆 𝛭𝜇 𝛮𝜈 𝛯𝜉 𝛰𝜊 𝛱𝜋 𝛲𝜌 𝛴𝜎 𝛵𝜏 𝛶𝜐 𝛷𝜙𝜑 𝛸𝜒 𝛹𝜓 𝛺𝜔