mersenneforum.org The Official "When will Element 126 Be Discovered?" Thread
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 2007-03-08, 18:35 #1 ewmayer ∂2ω=0     Sep 2002 República de California 3×53×31 Posts The Official "When will Element 126 Be Discovered?" Thread Post your guess as to when Element 126, the doubly-magic member of the hypothesized "Island of Stability", will be discovered, specifically give your guesses for the following three data: D := Date of discovery (the eventually accepted "official" discovery date, not the "first alleged sighting" date, as the latter is often disputed and later revoked in the field of heavy-element synthesis); H := Half-life of longest-lived isotope; M := Atomic Mass (#protons + #neutrons) of longest-lived isotope (predicted to be 334, but ya just never know until there's some if the stuff around to measure). The metric for "who wins by having the closest guess?" will be the following, where all of the deltas (delta (X) := |Xactual - Xguess|) will be normalized in years, i.e. nondimensionalized with a standard unit of 1 year: Code: Error := delta(D) + |log10(Hactual/Hguess)| + delta(M) So, for instance, if I guess [15 March 2010, 1 million years, 333] and things turn out as [15 March 2015, 1 year, 335], my guess has an Error = 5+6+2 = 13. My guess: 15 March 2020 10000 years 334
 2007-03-09, 01:37 #2 jasong     "Jason Goatcher" Mar 2005 3×7×167 Posts Had to Google "island of stability." I really, REALLY need to go back to college.
2007-03-09, 02:36   #3
Xyzzy

"Mike"
Aug 2002

24×503 Posts

Quote:
 I really, REALLY need to go back to college.

2007-03-09, 02:53   #4
Mini-Geek
Account Deleted

"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA

102538 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Xyzzy We'd be happy to have graduated the third grade.
Seriously, what's with the "we"? are you a schizo or something?

Smeagol: ...and take it for ME.
Gollum: For us.
Smeagol: Yes, we... we meant for us.

2007-03-09, 03:58   #5

"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA

1E0C16 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mini-Geek Seriously, what's with the "we"? are you a schizo or something?
For my explanation, see

http://mersenneforum.org/showpost.ph...8&postcount=37

and

http://mersenneforum.org/showpost.ph...7&postcount=41.

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2007-03-09 at 04:02 Reason: Just trying to help.

 2007-03-09, 17:43 #6 ewmayer ∂2ω=0     Sep 2002 República de California 3·53·31 Posts Gosh, anyone care to actually stay on-topic? C'mon - I gave a link to the wikipage for Element 126, all ya gotta do is check that out, then guess a date, half-life and mass - how hard can that be? Of course, I was also hoping to generate some at least semi-interesting discussion from people who are interesting in this sort of thing, but so far I see a couple of snarky comments followed by some borderline ad hominem flamelets. Sheesh. If ya got nothin' worthwhile to say...
 2007-03-09, 18:07 #7 Xyzzy     "Mike" Aug 2002 24×503 Posts D: 19 Jan 2038 H: 1,000,000,000 M: 666
2007-03-09, 20:01   #8
davieddy

"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England

2·3·13·83 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ewmayer Gosh, anyone care to actually stay on-topic? ...
Yes.
Does anyone think the element might actually be stable?
I don't see the reason for "doubly" magic if the magic numbers
>126 are unknown.
BTW the magic numbers for nucleons are analogous to the
atomic numbers of inert gases. (Complete shells)

 2007-03-09, 20:02 #9 philmoore     "Phil" Sep 2002 Tracktown, U.S.A. 100010111112 Posts You didn't specify any units for your half-life, Xyzzy! My guess is: D: 1 April 2014 H: 10 milliseconds M: 310 How long do we have to wait to find out which isotope has the longest half-life, Ernst? I mean, we could go on for years without finding them all.
 2007-03-09, 20:23 #10 Spherical Cow     Nov 2004 10348 Posts Half-life: 1,257,787 years Discovery Date: 1-March-2049 Atomic Mass: 337 Norm
2007-03-09, 20:43   #11
Xyzzy

"Mike"
Aug 2002

24·503 Posts

Quote:
 You didn't specify any units for your half-life, Xyzzy!
Who cares? It's a billion!
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