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Old 2021-04-21, 20:17   #408
firejuggler
 
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Would the sub 100k exponent(those with no know factors) get any help with PP1 (those which were ecm-ed to T60 or above)?
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Old 2021-04-21, 20:19   #409
Prime95
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15.75M expo, 2^69 TF

Code:
[Apr 21 16:14] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=5000000
[Apr 21 16:14] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.366%

[Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=10000000
[Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.441%

[Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.52%

[Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=10000000
[Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.56%

[Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.666%

[Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=40000000
[Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.779%

[Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.811%

[Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000
[Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.957%

[Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000
[Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.11%
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Old 2021-04-21, 20:29   #410
Prime95
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4.7M expo, TF to 2^68

On further thought exponent size does not affect probability calculations. Only TF,B1,B2.

Code:
[Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=5000000
[Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.419%

[Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=10000000
[Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.503%

[Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.593%

[Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=10000000
[Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.633%

[Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.753%

[Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=40000000
[Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.879%

[Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000
[Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.91%

[Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000
[Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.07%

[Apr 21 16:27] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000
[Apr 21 16:27] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.24%
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Old 2021-04-21, 20:31   #411
chalsall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prime95 View Post
On further thought exponent size does not affect probability calculations. Only TF,B1,B2.
Do you have any gut feeling for how accurate the estimates are?
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Old 2021-04-21, 20:36   #412
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firejuggler View Post
Would the sub 100k exponent(those with no know factors) get any help with PP1 (those which were ecm-ed to T60 or above)?
One P+1 run would be just like running one more ECM curve. The P+1 "curve" stands little chance of success just like running one ECM curve. But at least P+1 would be faster than the one ECM curve.

So, no, you're not likely to find a factor, but yes it is worth doing. Again, if the current ECM level is B1=44M then I'd do at least P+1 B1=500M to take advantage of P+1's faster stage 1. Also, stay away from the really small exponents (say sub-50K) where GMP-ECM with its FFT stage 2 would be the better choice.
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Old 2021-04-21, 20:40   #413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
Do you have any gut feeling for how accurate the estimates are?
Unless, I've misunderstood the math (not an insignificant possibility) or there is a bug, then the estimate should be spot on. I'm using Mihai's P-1 smoothness probability estimator. Whereas, P-1 get 20+ free bits of smoothness due to the known 2*p in factors, P+1 gets only a couple of free bits due to Peter Montgomery's ingenuity.
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Old 2021-04-21, 21:05   #414
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Code:
Architects Cubed	rdt1	42600139	NF-PP1	2021-04-21 18:53	0.0	3.2837	Start=2/7, B1=400000, B2=16800000
Architects Cubed	GCE_2	42600221	NF-PP1	2021-04-21 19:09	0.0	4.0777	Start=2/7, B1=500000, B2=22000000
Architects Cubed	GCE_1	42600289	NF-PP1	2021-04-21 19:28	0.0	5.0302	Start=2/7, B1=600000, B2=27600000
Architects Cubed	GCE_3	42600367	NF-PP1	2021-04-21 19:50	0.0	5.9485	Start=2/7, B1=700000, B2=32900000
Architects Cubed	GCE_4	42600379	NF-PP1	2021-04-21 19:59	0.0	6.8896	Start=2/7, B1=800000, B2=38400000
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Old 2021-04-21, 21:08   #415
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Heinrich View Post
This is crude, but I have created a placeholder page to list what known P+1 efforts have been recorded:
https://www.mersenne.ca/pplus1.php

Note of course that my data will always be up to 24h out of date (synch'ed just after midnight UTC).
Will get a better report on mersenne.org (at least if George can email me where to find the P+1 data).
There is now a version on mersenne.org with access to live data. Still needs to be prettied up with filtering parameters and such, but it's a start:
https://www.mersenne.org/report_pplus1/
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Old 2021-04-21, 21:49   #416
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Thanks for the page! Maybe you could add a NF/F column? I'm eager to see when the first new factor gets found with P+1.
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Old 2021-04-21, 21:57   #417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kruoli View Post
Thanks for the page! Maybe you could add a NF/F column? I'm eager to see when the first new factor gets found with P+1.
The mersenne.ca page includes factors, if any.
The mersenne.org data table George pointed me to does not include information about factors, I'll have ask him about that.
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Old 2021-04-22, 00:13   #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Heinrich View Post
There is now a version on mersenne.org with access to live data. Still needs to be prettied up with filtering parameters and such, but it's a start:
https://www.mersenne.org/report_pplus1/
Coolness! Thanks!!!

And you know where this leads, don't you...?

You'll now have to do a cost/benefit analysis to determine where the economic cross-over points are between ECM, deep TF'ing, deep P-1'ing, and this new P+1!!! As a function of 0.1M range, please...
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