20200311, 15:29  #111  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
3·7·443 Posts 
Quote:
As I said, I /don't/ understand the maths. But my meta understanding, based on what has been written here by those who do understand the underlying ***theory***, is we've seen more MPs than expected. This might just be outliners. Or... And, to put out there... Those who are theorists keep saying we should find about 1 factor every "bit level" TF'ed (e.g. 1/77 when going from 76 to 77). And yet, the empirical data suggests it's closer to 1/100. Last fiddled with by chalsall on 20200311 at 15:32 Reason: Clarification. 

20200311, 18:35  #112  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
3·13·113 Posts 
Quote:
I suggest that ratio, not difference, would be the way to go. And it's fairly moot, since all prediction methods for where is the next Mersenne prime are in practice no better than throwing darts blindfolded. 

20200311, 18:58  #113  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
1137_{16} Posts 
Quote:
Quote:
Checking my own last 297 TF bit level results, over 7276 bits, for an assumed average x=73.5 level, 1/x=0.136 x 297 = 4.04 factors expected. And I have 4 factors found. It's a small sample and could easily have been unlucky at 2 or lucky at 6 found. One of those found was in the first 25 results. These were produced mostly by new presumably reliable hardware. There are few error checks in TF. False factors will get detected at the server, but computation errors that lead to missing factors may go undetected. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20200311 at 18:59 

20200311, 19:05  #114  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
3×7×443 Posts 
Quote:
But... We're getting more data every few years. And the theorists must always be willing to examine compelling empirical data. They have been known to occasionally be incorrect on some matters... Last fiddled with by chalsall on 20200311 at 19:09 Reason: Smelling mistake. 

20200313, 03:28  #115  
Jan 2019
Pittsburgh, PA
231_{10} Posts 
Quote:
Hopefully we will see a prime by this Christmas. 

20200313, 08:09  #116 
Romulan Interpreter
Jun 2011
Thailand
2·11·397 Posts 
Only if all travel bans are lifted. Otherwise, George may decide to stay home...
Last fiddled with by LaurV on 20200313 at 08:09 
20200317, 03:11  #117 
Jan 2019
Pittsburgh, PA
3×7×11 Posts 

20200409, 17:22  #118 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2·4,297 Posts 
I just noticed that is guess just got passed:
Code:
Uncwilly 12/29/2018 89999999 4/15/2020 Oh, BTW, Ken has found a factor or completed a first time check on every guess in this thread. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20200409 at 17:28 
20200409, 18:10  #119  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
3×13×113 Posts 
Quote:
Another possible game is to make guesses as to when the remaining dubious claims or last M50 guess standing may fall. I won't participate, partly because I know the estimated schedules for some of these. See https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...04&postcount=5 To spice it up a bit, you could add the requirement for some of the larger ones that the guesser must still be alive to win, or allow that guesses can be passed on to an heir, perhaps only above a certain exponent size. But don't wait too long, or there will be fewer to choose from. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20200409 at 18:26 

20200726, 06:08  #121 
"AMD YES!"
Jan 2020
Bellevue, WA
7^{2} Posts 
My First Guess
111906173 on Jan.2nd, 2021.

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