[Mission Accomplished] Let's finish primality verification through Mp#48*, M(57 885 161)

[kriesel]

From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
(last updated 2021-03-11 23:30:07 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

All exponents below 54 480 799 have been tested and verified.
Countdown to verifying all tests below 55 million: 40 (2 available)
Countdown to verifying all tests below 56 million: 2 600 (1 737 available)
Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161): 20,643

(A RadeonVII running relatively current gpuowl can chew through these at a rate of ~3.5-4 per day, as LL DC, or PRP with proof generation)
20643 * ~112 GHD adds up though.
It could use any help from the PRP-CF-DC team that becomes available, now that that effort is wrapping up.
People running Google Colab and feeling the pinch of the 15GB Google drive limit for larger exponents could help too.

The odds of completing verification through M(57885161) and settling if it is indeed Mp#48 this year are good.
Verification milestones have averaged progress of 4M per year the past few years. It's been over 8 years since its discovery.
A little extra push should get the verification done in time for George's year end vacation (and the next prime discovery?)

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by kriesel

It could use any help from the PRP-CF-DC team that becomes available, now that that effort is wrapping up.

I have 8 workers comprising around 20 cores doing DCs'. Some are a little beyond the range because of some targeted work and reboots while I have not been able to touch the machines. But they will slowly move back down to the lower Cats.

[kriesel]

From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
(last updated 2021-03-16 11:30:06 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

All exponents below 54 480 799 have been tested and verified.
Countdown to verifying all tests below 55 million: 35
Countdown to verifying all tests below 56 million: 2 343 (1 581 available)
Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161): 19 918

Relative to post 1, 4.5 days, 20643-19918 = 725; 161.11.../day.
An optimistic extrapolation indicates ~ 124 days (4 months) to go. Approximately late July 2021.
(Optimistic for at least these reasons:
as p increases, each is more work, estimated as about 7% more effort per exponent for 57.88M compared to 56M;
as a milestone is approached, more of the DC effort lands above the milestone, lowering rate of exponents/day below the milestone;
to the extent that effort is a function of school or vacation schedules, summer can show lower throughput;
to the extent effort is affected by air conditioning cost, summer can have lower throughput)

[pinhodecarlos]

ID type of work please? TIA.

[slandrum]

Originally Posted by kriesel

From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
as a milestone is approached, more of the DC effort lands above the milestone, lowering rate of exponents/day below the milestone;

This reason is going to be the big one that the estimate is optimistic

[kriesel]

And, waiting for stalled exponents to expire and reissue. Some have no expiration date at all, and ETAs of months or years. (Click on ETA (days) twice to see that.) Something will need to be done about that.

[slandrum]

Expiration dates for the assignments currently not showing an expiration will get attached as soon as they move about halfway into cat 1. Any exponent that's been assigned for over 360 days will instantly expire when that happens. If you notice right now, every double check assignment below 56000000 has an expiration date on it.

Waiting for years for an exponent to expire is really a non-issue. Cat 1 is never fully assigned, every day the range for cat 1 moves and more old assignments pick up their expiration dates. The assignments that will hang around the longest are the ones that are checking in every day/week/month, but are making hopelessly slow progress, so they won't expire until their full 360 days has run out and they've moved sufficiently far into cat 1 or even into cat 0.

[kriesel]

From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-04-17 13:30:06 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

All exponents below 55 133 759 have been tested and verified.
Countdown to verifying all tests below 56 million: 917 (373 available)
Countdown to verifying all tests below 57 million: 6 708 (3 751 available)
Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161): 15 132

Relative to post 3 status, 32 days 2 hours, 19918-15132=149.17/day
So, at least 101.4 days to go estimated, approximately 27 July 2021, and that is optimistic for several reasons previously stated. Probably by at least a month.

[slandrum]

My estimate is that all exponents below Mp#48 will be cleared approximately 4 months after it moves into cat 1 DC range. Unless someone at some point starts poaching lagging assignments, there will be some cat 2 assignments that will have to age out completely and expire and get reassigned and cleared.

It's going to take some time for that to happen, the upper bound of cat1 is currently 57109304.

This puts the likely date sometime after September.

[kriesel]

https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/

Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-05-15 20:30:06 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

    All exponents below 55 645 729 have been tested and verified.
    All exponents below 102 717 821 have been tested at least once.

    Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 103 million: 3
    Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 104 million: 1 813 (5 available)

    Countdown to verifying all tests below 56 million: 93
    Countdown to verifying all tests below 57 million: 2 380 (1 064 available)

    Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161): 9 456
    Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): 304 382
    Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77 232 917): 359 929
    Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82 589 933): 458 642

[moebius]

I'm also working on it, currently doing LL-DC's in the 5711XXXX range with my Ryzen 7 3700X CPU!