
View Poll Results: How long will GIMPS take to test all exponents <79.3M?  
Less than 10 years  7  17.07%  
10 to 15 years  14  34.15%  
15 to 20 years  6  14.63%  
More than 20 years  14  34.15%  
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll 

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20040727, 13:56  #1 
Sep 2002
Oeiras, Portugal
2650_{8} Posts 
How long will the project take?
I consider the project "finished" when all exponents up to 79.3M have been tested and DCed and/or factored. I know it is difficult to make an educated guess, as the hardware and algorithms will most likely change dramatically in the next couple of years, but I thought it would be interesting to know your feeling as hardcore GIMPSters...

20040727, 15:52  #2 
Sep 2002
Austin, TX
3×11×17 Posts 
it almost feels like the project is finished right now. we've explored the planets and now we are going into the depts of space.

20040727, 16:35  #3 
Oct 2003
Australia, Brisbane
470_{10} Posts 
I would probably consider the project "finished" when we find the 10mil digit prime. Unless another cash prize was offered again. I think that there is a cash prize for a 100mil digit prime, but that is too far away (as far as I am concerned) to look for. It would take FAR to long to test a 100mil digit prime with todays hardware (assuming that no new algorithims are developed that are faster than the LL test).

20040727, 18:33  #4 
Oct 2003
Croatia
710_{8} Posts 
I vote 1015 years, but everything is possible.
I only hope that GIMPS will not end once we TF, LL and DC all available exponents in current range. I hope we will be able to extend current range and test above current max exponent. Last fiddled with by edorajh on 20040727 at 18:41 
20040727, 20:28  #5 
Jul 2003
2·3·5 Posts 
I'll be onboard until George kicks the bucket or he losses interest.

20040727, 23:56  #6 
Cranksta Rap Ayatollah
Jul 2003
641 Posts 
what exactly is the cause of the limitation? is it something that will be overcome by technology in the next decade or so?
Aside from that .. I'd say we would have to look at how many CPUyears it would take to finish all the exponents in the range and look at the trends of how many CPUyears are completed every year or so. Since I have no idea what either of those are .. I can't give an answer :D Also, I think it would depend on whether or not GIMPS wins the EFF prize. I think if it does, there will be a marked (but not necessarily dramatic) increase in the number of CPUyears completed every year Another surprise factor would be whether or not there is a big upheaval in computer technology (along the lines of quantum computing or something) I'd guesstimate (and I'm sure someone with industry knowledge could give more accurate estimates) that if some new technology is in R+D right now, it'll take 35 years to make it commercially viable and 35 more years before it makes any impact on GIMPS, and then maybe 24 years to make a significant impact, so that's looking at 814 years to make a signifcant impact 
20040728, 00:45  #7  
Sep 2003
Borg HQ, Delta Quadrant
2·3^{3}·13 Posts 
Quote:
I find your estimate of R+D to big impact on GIMPS to probably be about right. DDR2 RAM is now finally available, though few people are using it. It'll be a while before lots of people in GIMPS will replace their computers with new DDR2based machines, so it'll be a few years before that tech has a major impact on GIMPS, as you said. DDR2 should have a large impact; memory performance has historically been a major bottleneck. 

20040728, 09:36  #8  
Aug 2003
2^{4}·3 Posts 
Quote:


20040728, 13:27  #9  
Sep 2003
Borg HQ, Delta Quadrant
2×3^{3}×13 Posts 
Quote:


20040728, 17:16  #10 
May 2004
Seattle, Washington, US
2^{3} Posts 
Well, i know we don't yet have a proof that there are an infinite number of Mersenne primes, but ya know, there's lots and lots of candidates. lots and lots and lots. lots and lots and lots and lots...
otoh, i'd be interested in a poll asking how long we think Moore's Law will hold up 
20130103, 06:45  #11 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3×5×7×89 Posts 
Reviving this necrothread, rather than starting a new one or tapping into either of these 2 ("Milestones" or "3 years trend").
So, when do you all figure that we will complete LL on all of the exponents under 79.3? I have been looking at the rates of change in some of the numbers being reported. Looking at the trend of the deltas in P90 years. And projecting forward, it looks like the P90 years number could go to zero by the end of March 2015, sometime around July 2015 using a larger data set. Over the long haul the estimated date (with out trend projection) has approached 1/1/2021 several times, but we have been going firmly below that for a while. 
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