Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that?

Stargate38 · 2012-09-02, 22:29

Can someone please give me a formula for calculating the chance of living N years, given your current age? I really want to know so I can calculate the probability of living to the age of 1000 years or maybe even 4198862272127 years (if the formula holds for that high a number). Also, I need a table to check against the formula.

cheesehead · 2012-09-02, 22:33

Google "actuarial tables life expectancy".

Stargate38 · 2012-09-02, 22:36

What's the formula used on those?

jeebee · 2012-09-02, 22:40

If you're asking for God's formula, I'm afraid we won't see it in this lifetime.

Otherwise, actuarial science uses empirical evidence along with probability measures to compute these values.

Since no one firm uses the same data, there is no consensus on these statistical measures. The day will come when data will be centralized but insurance is still a capitalist game and historical data is still considered a private asset.

Furthermore, one can argue that historical data should be given less and less weight as the years go by. Think of the advancement of medical science but also environment contingencies which along with many other influences modify significantly the observed mortality.

On topic, the usual notation is npx, which means the probability that a person of age x survive at least n years. It is computed precisely using a mortality table and will therefore match the 'expected' result...It should also be clear at this point what the probability of what you're asking is.

You may want to search for public domain mortality tables to get some practice.

Stargate38 · 2012-09-02, 22:53

If you were to remove diseases, accidents, suicide, and cancer, what would the chance of living to each of these ages be (assuming you were 21 years old right now and you aged at an inverse-logrithmic rate with respect to your age)? What's left to cause death?

Code:

100 years
200 years
600 years
2400 years
12000 years
72000 years
504000 years
4032000 years
36288000 years
3628800000 years
M127 years
M43112609 years
MM127 years
10^10[sup]100[/sup] years

retina · 2012-09-02, 23:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stargate38

What's left to cause death?

The Big Rip?
The Big Freeze?
The Big Crunch?
The Big Bounce?
Boredom?

Stargate38 · 2012-09-02, 23:05

Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more?

retina · 2012-09-02, 23:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stargate38

Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more?

Depends upon how you define 'live'. If it is merely for existing and keeping your heart beating then IMO that is not living. Without Mini-me to complete me I would not be living regardless of whether my physical body is still in good working condition.

firejuggler · 2012-09-02, 23:32

*insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*

Xyzzy · 2012-09-03, 00:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by firejuggler

*insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*

Axel Rudi Pell FTW!

Xyzzy · 2012-09-03, 00:36

.

2012-09-02, 22:29	#1
Stargate38 "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 2²×3×59 Posts	Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that? Can someone please give me a formula for calculating the chance of living N years, given your current age? I really want to know so I can calculate the probability of living to the age of 1000 years or maybe even 4198862272127 years (if the formula holds for that high a number). Also, I need a table to check against the formula.

2012-09-02, 22:40	#4
jeebee Sep 2011 6₁₆ Posts	If you're asking for God's formula, I'm afraid we won't see it in this lifetime. Otherwise, actuarial science uses empirical evidence along with probability measures to compute these values. Since no one firm uses the same data, there is no consensus on these statistical measures. The day will come when data will be centralized but insurance is still a capitalist game and historical data is still considered a private asset. Furthermore, one can argue that historical data should be given less and less weight as the years go by. Think of the advancement of medical science but also environment contingencies which along with many other influences modify significantly the observed mortality. On topic, the usual notation is npx, which means the probability that a person of age x survive at least n years. It is computed precisely using a mortality table and will therefore match the 'expected' result...It should also be clear at this point what the probability of what you're asking is. You may want to search for public domain mortality tables to get some practice. Last fiddled with by jeebee on 2012-09-02 at 22:42

2012-09-02, 22:53	#5
Stargate38 "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 2²×3×59 Posts	If you were to remove diseases, accidents, suicide, and cancer, what would the chance of living to each of these ages be (assuming you were 21 years old right now and you aged at an inverse-logrithmic rate with respect to your age)? What's left to cause death? Code: 100 years 200 years 600 years 2400 years 12000 years 72000 years 504000 years 4032000 years 36288000 years 3628800000 years M127 years M43112609 years MM127 years 10^10[sup]100[/sup] years

2012-09-02, 23:05	#7
Stargate38 "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 2²×3×59 Posts	Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more? Last fiddled with by Stargate38 on 2012-09-02 at 23:07

2012-09-03, 00:36	#11
Xyzzy Aug 2002 5×1,697 Posts	. Attached Thumbnails

2012-09-02, 22:33	#2
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 1E0C₁₆ Posts	Google "actuarial tables life expectancy".

2012-09-02, 22:36	#3
Stargate38 "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 1304₈ Posts	What's the formula used on those?

2012-09-02, 23:32	#9
firejuggler "Vincent" Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 2845₁₀ Posts	insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song

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