mersenneforum.org Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that?
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 2012-09-02, 22:29 #1 Stargate38     "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 22×3×59 Posts Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that? Can someone please give me a formula for calculating the chance of living N years, given your current age? I really want to know so I can calculate the probability of living to the age of 1000 years or maybe even 4198862272127 years (if the formula holds for that high a number). Also, I need a table to check against the formula.
 2012-09-02, 22:33 #2 cheesehead     "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 1E0C16 Posts Google "actuarial tables life expectancy".
 2012-09-02, 22:36 #3 Stargate38     "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 13048 Posts What's the formula used on those?
 2012-09-02, 22:40 #4 jeebee   Sep 2011 616 Posts If you're asking for God's formula, I'm afraid we won't see it in this lifetime. Otherwise, actuarial science uses empirical evidence along with probability measures to compute these values. Since no one firm uses the same data, there is no consensus on these statistical measures. The day will come when data will be centralized but insurance is still a capitalist game and historical data is still considered a private asset. Furthermore, one can argue that historical data should be given less and less weight as the years go by. Think of the advancement of medical science but also environment contingencies which along with many other influences modify significantly the observed mortality. On topic, the usual notation is npx, which means the probability that a person of age x survive at least n years. It is computed precisely using a mortality table and will therefore match the 'expected' result...It should also be clear at this point what the probability of what you're asking is. You may want to search for public domain mortality tables to get some practice. Last fiddled with by jeebee on 2012-09-02 at 22:42
 2012-09-02, 22:53 #5 Stargate38     "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 22×3×59 Posts If you were to remove diseases, accidents, suicide, and cancer, what would the chance of living to each of these ages be (assuming you were 21 years old right now and you aged at an inverse-logrithmic rate with respect to your age)? What's left to cause death? Code: 100 years 200 years 600 years 2400 years 12000 years 72000 years 504000 years 4032000 years 36288000 years 3628800000 years M127 years M43112609 years MM127 years 1010[sup]100[/sup] years
2012-09-02, 23:00   #6
retina
Undefined

"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair

2×3×1,093 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Stargate38 What's left to cause death?
The Big Rip?
The Big Freeze?
The Big Crunch?
The Big Bounce?
Boredom?

 2012-09-02, 23:05 #7 Stargate38     "Daniel Jackson" May 2011 14285714285714285714 22×3×59 Posts Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more? Last fiddled with by Stargate38 on 2012-09-02 at 23:07
2012-09-02, 23:12   #8
retina
Undefined

"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair

2·3·1,093 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Stargate38 Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more?
Depends upon how you define 'live'. If it is merely for existing and keeping your heart beating then IMO that is not living. Without Mini-me to complete me I would not be living regardless of whether my physical body is still in good working condition.

 2012-09-02, 23:32 #9 firejuggler     "Vincent" Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 284510 Posts *insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*
2012-09-03, 00:35   #10
Xyzzy

Aug 2002

5×1,697 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by firejuggler *insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*
Axel Rudi Pell FTW!

 2012-09-03, 00:36 #11 Xyzzy     Aug 2002 5×1,697 Posts . Attached Thumbnails

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