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Old 2022-08-26, 00:42   #408
Uncwilly
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Please keep posts specific to the topic of the thread.
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Old 2022-08-26, 00:56   #409
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If two or more predictions for M52 are verified, and if there is any question of which prediction was made first, the potential time stamp issue might become a real issue.

Until then,...
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Old 2022-08-26, 01:24   #410
chalsall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Please keep posts specific to the topic of the thread.
Many believe that trying to manage the MF is a bit like Herding Cats.

At the same time, Humor is such a subjective thing.

Sorry for "taking the piss". But, come on... It's fun playing with really smart people (along with a few 'bots)...

Last fiddled with by chalsall on 2022-08-26 at 01:29 Reason: s/to MF/the MF/; # Smelling mistake...
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Old 2022-08-26, 04:23   #411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
... the potential time stamp issue might become a real issue.
What issue?

This whole thread is just for bragging rights. The best guesser (i.e. the "winner") isn't going to be sent money, the nuclear launch codes0, or indeed anything at all.

0 Psst, the launch code is '00000000'. Don't tell anyone.
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Old 2022-08-26, 13:19   #412
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
What issue?

This whole thread is just for bragging rights.
<snip>
There is a sentiment (variously formulated) known as Sayre's Law, q.v.
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Old 2022-08-27, 09:59   #413
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The 52nd Mersenne Prime maybe among 2^57885161-1(I don't know whether any other prime exists except 2^57885161-1, 2^74207281-1, 2^77232917 and 2^82589933-1) or not) to 2^158729803-1(158729803 is the largest prime which smaller than 158729866)
I calculated exponent of each prime divides that of previous one, and I cut the 5 biggest quotients and 5 smallest ones, got remained 40 quotients. I continued to calculate the average(avg, 1.3936846) and standard deviation(stdev, 0.3073011) of remained 40 quotients. From them I got 82589933*(avg-3*stdev)=38964385.1, 82589933*(avg+3*stdev)=158729866.1

See the pdf given.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Mers.pdf (42.3 KB, 20 views)

Last fiddled with by Paimon2005 on 2022-08-27 at 10:04
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Old 2022-08-27, 10:02   #414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paimon2005 View Post
The 52nd Mersenne Prime maybe among 2^57885161-1(I don't know whether any other prime exists except 2^57885161-1, 2^74207281-1, 2^77232917 and 2^82589933-1) or not) to 2^158729803-1(158729803 is the largest prime which smaller than 158729866)
I calculated exponent of each prime divides that of previous one, and I cut the 5 biggest quotients and 5 smallest ones, got remained 40 quotients. I continued to calculate the average(avg, 1.3936846) and standard deviation(stdev, 0.3073011) of remained 40 quotients. From them I got 82589933*(avg-3*stdev)=38964385.1, 82589933*(avg+3*stdev)=158729866.1

See the pdf given.
Well, 3-Sigma Guidelines told us that values are almost all(99.73%) between μ-3σ to μ+3σ

Last fiddled with by Paimon2005 on 2022-08-27 at 10:04
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Old 2022-08-27, 12:58   #415
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By definition, because of magnitude sorting, Mp#52 > Mp#51* (M(82589933) assuming no more are found below p=82589933, which is very likely the case). Its probability distribution is therefore highly asymmetric; there is zero probability of Mp#52 < Mp#51. (See skewness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness)

The normal distribution is symmetric. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
It is also unbounded. And continuous.
The normal distribution does not apply to Mersenne primes' exponents or ln(Mp exponent).
It's thought the Poisson distribution does. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

Plus or minus four standard deviations contains ~0.9999366 of the normal distribution's population. But -4 times the standard deviation you computed ~ 4 * -.3073 ~ -1.2292, admitting a 0.00317% chance of <-1.2292, or for Mp#52, p < -18,929,612. That's a long ways from > 82589933.
Mersenne numbers by definition are integers that might be primes, and so only occur for integer exponent p > +1.

Further, GIMPS verification is complete up to almost M(61475119) currently. That's within 1 SD of M(82589933).
Below -1 SD of mean is ~ 0.158655 chance of Mp#52 < Mp#51, a contradiction. And there's near zero chance of a missed Mersenne prime below there (at p < 61475119).

Computation of standard deviation may make sense for data that are normally distributed or close to it.
This is not.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2022-08-27 at 13:13
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Old 2022-09-09, 19:04   #416
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Old 2022-09-09, 21:36   #417
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Default Reminder and new prediction

As a reminder, there were 1331 days between the discovery of M42643809 and M57885161.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dur...&d2=25&y2=2013

We are now at 1372 days since December 7, 2018, so we have long surpassed that record.

Anyway, for my prediction:

115,200,023

December 25, 2022
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Old 2022-09-09, 21:54   #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raydex View Post
Anyway, for my prediction:

115,200,023

December 25, 2022
That date was already guessed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MattcAnderson View Post
I want to add another guess. My second exponent is 90000049. (a prime number) It's corresponding date is December 25, 2022.
Therefore rule 3 applies:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
3 You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
...
6 You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
You can guess the number again in 60 days.
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