20220826, 00:42  #408 
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10101010001011_{2} Posts 
Please keep posts specific to the topic of the thread.

20220826, 00:56  #409 
Feb 2017
Nowhere
5×11×113 Posts 
If two or more predictions for M52 are verified, and if there is any question of which prediction was made first, the potential time stamp issue might become a real issue.
Until then,... 
20220826, 01:24  #410 
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
2·7^{2}·113 Posts 
Many believe that trying to manage the MF is a bit like Herding Cats.
At the same time, Humor is such a subjective thing. Sorry for "taking the piss". But, come on... It's fun playing with really smart people (along with a few 'bots)... Last fiddled with by chalsall on 20220826 at 01:29 Reason: s/to MF/the MF/; # Smelling mistake... 
20220826, 04:23  #411  
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
1A18_{16} Posts 
Quote:
This whole thread is just for bragging rights. The best guesser (i.e. the "winner") isn't going to be sent money, the nuclear launch codes^{0}, or indeed anything at all. ^{0} Psst, the launch code is '00000000'. Don't tell anyone. 

20220826, 13:19  #412 
Feb 2017
Nowhere
5×11×113 Posts 

20220827, 09:59  #413 
"51*462^4631"
Jul 2022
Fujian Prov, China
1000_{2} Posts 
The 52nd Mersenne Prime maybe among 2^578851611(I don't know whether any other prime exists except 2^578851611, 2^742072811, 2^77232917 and 2^825899331) or not) to 2^1587298031(158729803 is the largest prime which smaller than 158729866)
I calculated exponent of each prime divides that of previous one, and I cut the 5 biggest quotients and 5 smallest ones, got remained 40 quotients. I continued to calculate the average(avg, 1.3936846) and standard deviation(stdev, 0.3073011) of remained 40 quotients. From them I got 82589933*(avg3*stdev)=38964385.1, 82589933*(avg+3*stdev)=158729866.1 See the pdf given. Last fiddled with by Paimon2005 on 20220827 at 10:04 
20220827, 10:02  #414  
"51*462^4631"
Jul 2022
Fujian Prov, China
2^{3} Posts 
Quote:
Last fiddled with by Paimon2005 on 20220827 at 10:04 

20220827, 12:58  #415 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
1CC6_{16} Posts 
By definition, because of magnitude sorting, Mp#52 > Mp#51* (M(82589933) assuming no more are found below p=82589933, which is very likely the case). Its probability distribution is therefore highly asymmetric; there is zero probability of Mp#52 < Mp#51. (See skewness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness)
The normal distribution is symmetric. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution It is also unbounded. And continuous. The normal distribution does not apply to Mersenne primes' exponents or ln(Mp exponent). It's thought the Poisson distribution does. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution Plus or minus four standard deviations contains ~0.9999366 of the normal distribution's population. But 4 times the standard deviation you computed ~ 4 * .3073 ~ 1.2292, admitting a 0.00317% chance of <1.2292, or for Mp#52, p < 18,929,612. That's a long ways from > 82589933. Mersenne numbers by definition are integers that might be primes, and so only occur for integer exponent p > +1. Further, GIMPS verification is complete up to almost M(61475119) currently. That's within 1 SD of M(82589933). Below 1 SD of mean is ~ 0.158655 chance of Mp#52 < Mp#51, a contradiction. And there's near zero chance of a missed Mersenne prime below there (at p < 61475119). Computation of standard deviation may make sense for data that are normally distributed or close to it. This is not. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20220827 at 13:13 
20220909, 19:04  #416 
Nov 2006
SW Virginia USA
4_{10} Posts 
yet another
110687989
May 11 2023 
20220909, 21:36  #417 
Nov 2020
Massachusetts, USA
3^{3} Posts 
Reminder and new prediction
As a reminder, there were 1331 days between the discovery of M_{42643809} and M_{57885161}.
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/dur...&d2=25&y2=2013 We are now at 1372 days since December 7, 2018, so we have long surpassed that record. Anyway, for my prediction: 115,200,023 December 25, 2022 
20220909, 21:54  #418  
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10,891 Posts 
That date was already guessed.
Quote:
Quote:


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