Predict M52 - Page 37

congsz · 2022-08-24, 15:11

I pick
1. M115230449, Date: May 1, 2023. (A randomly-picked near one)
2. M141421417, Date: Jan 1, 2027. (Picked this because this is close to the decimal expansion of sqrt(2))
3. M173205119, Date: Dec 1, 2030. (Picked this because this is close to the decimal expansion of sqrt(3))

(I haven't read the rules carefully, so please point me out if I violated any of the rules.)

Uncwilly · 2022-08-24, 15:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by congsz

I pick
...
(I haven't read the rules carefully, so please point me out if I violated any of the rules.)

All are prime, without factor, not yet verified, the dates are all in the future, no one has previously guessed those dates. You are ok.

<edit> Expect kriesel to start testing those soon

Uncwilly · 2022-08-24, 15:57

Time to update this.

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date. All except those guessed in the last 24 hours have been tested and shown not to be a prime.

Code:

Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
MattcAnderson	9/11/2019	84000013	4/1/2020
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1  	12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	87668491	3/14/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel  	12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	89065523	3/14/2020
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
MattcAnderson	2/25/2021	90000049	12/25/2022
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
Viliam Furik	12/3/2019	91305491	1/18/2020
patrik  	12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	91761547	3/14/2021
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn     	12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
sweety439	8/30/2019	94539113*	5/9/2021	*factored
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer  	12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	96052357*	5/21/2021	*factored
Dylan14  	12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
dcheuk  	3/10/2020	98350193	6/1/2020
Uncwilly	2/11/2020	99998441	7/31/2020	
Uncwilly	7/24/2020	100002751	10/6/2020
lukerichards			101834393*	8/1/2020	*factored
Primeinator	2/25/2021	102218101	3/1/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685711	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685769	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	103037743	2/4/2021
Primeinator	2/25/2021	103103437	3/31/2022
Raydex		2/15/2021	103237441	4/26/2021
tuckerkao	11/24/2020	103305173	
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	103347613
Primeinator	2/25/2021	104115637	8/31/2024
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	106456279	10/31/2021
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn    	 	12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95 	12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Spherical Cow	2/11/2020	107448791*	2/9/2021	*factored
Zhangrc		8/4/2021	108765463	11/1/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287103	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287119	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287131	12/14/2021	<==FTC complete above this
Kvasir		12/9/2021	110235199	12/2/2022
Batalov   	12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
dannyridel	7/26/2020	111906173	1/2/2021
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	111999799	5/27/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	114034099	12/24/2022
congsz		8/24/2022	115230449	5/1/2023
masser  	8/3/2019	115856161	7/4/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	118034167	5/24/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64  	12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel  	12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn	        12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
Petrw1  	10/13/2020	123456841	4/3/2021
Raydex		12/5/2020	125000089	5/2/2021
Jan S		12/10/2021	126551093	10/15/2023
sweety439	8/4/2021	127027489	4/21/2023
moebius		12/19/2020	131508427	1/1/2026
congsz		8/24/2022	141421417	1/1/2027
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
masser  	10/13/2020	149929849	9/2/2024
Ensigm  	10/13/2020	150714349	12/11/2024
congsz		8/24/2022	173205119	12/1/2030
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004047	8/15/2022
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004049	8/15/2022
tuckerkao	12/8/2021	196828523	
Brian-E  	12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
GP2     	1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	310347613
Dobri		8/2/2021	332192957	8/23/2024
dcheuk  	9/1/2019	333898333	11/1/2019
kriesel  	12/21/2018	402143633*	3/12/2052	*factored
ONeil		12/5/2020	852348659	12/31/2024
moebius  	12/14/2018			1/13/2020
tServo  	12/14/2018			12/31/2019
greenskull	10/12/2021			2/10/2022

congsz · 2022-08-25, 00:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

Time to update this.

Code:

Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
......
congsz		8/24/2022	141421417	12/1/2030
......
congsz		8/24/2022	173205119	1/1/2027
......

It seems that you mis-inputted my date of guess... In my post yesterday, the date of M141421417 should be 1/1/2027, and M173205119 corresponds to 12/1/2030.

Uncwilly · 2022-08-25, 02:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by congsz

It seems that you mis-inputted my date of guess...

I think I messed up my transcribing. Will fix that once I get back to the computer I was using. BTW, the date of the guess is the time and date stamp on the message on the forum.

<edit>fixed

kruoli · 2022-08-25, 09:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

BTW, the date of the guess is the time and date stamp on the message on the forum.

…which might not be the same for everyone. For example, your post is dated "2022-08-25 04:24" for me. Do not forget that you can change your time zone settings in the User CP.

Uncwilly · 2022-08-25, 13:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by kruoli

…which might not be the same for everyone. For example, your post is dated "2022-08-25 04:24" for me.

But, if I have mine set to UTC and use the time stamp from the forum, as opposed to when I first see the post, it provides a consistent basis to judge whose prediction was sooner.

kriesel · 2022-08-25, 16:37

UTC time is a good choice, as it avoids the widespread standard time / daylight time tomfoolery. And in the rare case of a timing tie to the UTC second by participants, the post numbering in the thread assigned by the forum server provides a tiebreaker for which participant submitted a prediction first. The posted game rules make reference both to posting first and to UTC time specifically.

Time zones worldwide are a bit of a mess. Transition date & time between standard and daylight do not coincide between zones, or stay constant over time within a political boundary, getting revised from time to time. And sometimes the political boundaries get shifted on the earth's surface. Offsets from UTC in some cases include fractional hours (so there are more than 24 offset values to consider). Last I checked, these areas include Afghanistan; Australia's Northern Territory, South Australia, and Cocos (Keeling) Islands; Canada's St John's; France's Marquesas Islands; India; Iran; Nepal; New Zealand's Chatham Islands. So quite an appreciable fraction of the human population lives in non-integer offset zones, at nearly 20%, much higher than I thought it was before investigating. See https://www.worldtimezone.com/

retina · 2022-08-25, 22:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by kriesel

Time zones worldwide are a bit of a mess.

Your suggested improvement being ... ?

UTC also has the problem of leap seconds. Perhaps TAI is a better choice.

kriesel · 2022-08-25, 23:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by retina

Your suggested improvement being ... ?

UTC also has the problem of leap seconds. Perhaps TAI is a better choice.

You and your minions conquer the world, erasing the previous political boundaries, and then draw 24 time zones an hour apart that minimize deviation between clock time and local solar time and possess simple relatively straight boundaries? Not an easy or cheap project, nor is defending the status quo, as Russia and Europe know. The current more complex time zone layout has some practical advantages for the status quo. Single time zones containing entire nations or large subdivisions of them (states or provinces) in some cases. Probably traffic patterns constrained by terrain (lakes, mountain ranges etc.) influenced the boundaries.
Russia has particularly complex boundaries between its various time zones.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Time
https://opentextbc.ca/projectmanagem...time-zones.png

chalsall · 2022-08-26, 00:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by kriesel

You and your minions conquer the world, erasing the previous political boundaries, and then draw 24 time zones an hour apart that minimize deviation between clock time and local solar time and possess simple relatively straight boundaries? Not an easy or cheap project, nor is defending the status quo, as Russia and Europe know.

Sincerely amusing. 8^)

2022-08-25, 16:37	#404
kriesel "TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17" Mar 2017 US midwest 1110011010000₂ Posts	UTC time is a good choice, as it avoids the widespread standard time / daylight time tomfoolery. And in the rare case of a timing tie to the UTC second by participants, the post numbering in the thread assigned by the forum server provides a tiebreaker for which participant submitted a prediction first. The posted game rules make reference both to posting first and to UTC time specifically. Time zones worldwide are a bit of a mess. Transition date & time between standard and daylight do not coincide between zones, or stay constant over time within a political boundary, getting revised from time to time. And sometimes the political boundaries get shifted on the earth's surface. Offsets from UTC in some cases include fractional hours (so there are more than 24 offset values to consider). Last I checked, these areas include Afghanistan; Australia's Northern Territory, South Australia, and Cocos (Keeling) Islands; Canada's St John's; France's Marquesas Islands; India; Iran; Nepal; New Zealand's Chatham Islands. So quite an appreciable fraction of the human population lives in non-integer offset zones, at nearly 20%, much higher than I thought it was before investigating. See https://www.worldtimezone.com/ Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2022-08-25 at 17:11

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2022-08-24, 15:11	#397
congsz "Cong Shengzhuo" Sep 2021 Nanjing, China 3²×5 Posts	I pick 1. M115230449, Date: May 1, 2023. (A randomly-picked near one) 2. M141421417, Date: Jan 1, 2027. (Picked this because this is close to the decimal expansion of sqrt(2)) 3. M173205119, Date: Dec 1, 2030. (Picked this because this is close to the decimal expansion of sqrt(3)) (I haven't read the rules carefully, so please point me out if I violated any of the rules.)