20181212, 20:07  #1 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
5·2,179 Posts 
Predict M52
With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)
THE RULES OF THE GAME:
All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated. Absurd guesses may be ignored it any statistical reports or graphs. Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread. Make your guess clear in your post. GAME ON! [edit]This is the area for additional info to clarify and document. In part this is to improve the post for the next Predict Mxx thread. The goal of the game is to guess the next Mersenne Prime to be found and the date it will be found. The winner of the exponent part of the game is the person with currently active exponent guess that is closest to the exponent of the next MP to be found. The winner of the game's date component is the person with the currently active date guess that is the closest to the 'discovery' date (and defined in the rules). Exponent guesses shall be expressed as integer decimal constants, without punctuation (no embedded comma, period, or space). Mxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx, or 2^{xxxxxxxxx}1 are clear formats and may be used. Using the [M][/M] or [CA][/CA] tags is encouraged. Dates need to be expressed in one of the following formats: YYYYMMDD, MM/DD/YYYY, [mmm, DD YYYY], or DD mmm YYYY (where mmm indicates the month name {or 3 letter abbreviation} in English). Guesses below below the current FTC milestone are allowed, but guesses below the DC milestone are not and will incur the standard 60 day wait. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified." will be changed to 5 hours. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6." will be amended to state guess can not have a matching DC or a verified PRP (at the time of the guess). That is because those numbers can not be the next MP. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it." Will be amended to indicate "first" refers to the first in sequence of the posting to the forum. Edits of posts will be judge on a case by case basis. Discovery of a factor or an LL or PRP result for an exponent that has been guessed does not invalidate it. That guess can still be the closest to the next MP. WRT to previous discoverers: They are granted only 1 extra guess, not 1 guess per MP discovered. Guesses with a linked exponent and date that are invalid in either part at the time of the guess are rejected in both parts. The 60 day wait applies to both parts. When a date or exponent guess becomes passe, after the 60 day wait, the other component may be reused (subject, of course, to it being currently valid.) Guesses can not be changed, modified, or updated after they are made. Edits of posts to change the guess may cause a ban from the current game. A person may chose to guess: solely dates, solely exponents, exponents linked to dates, or exponents and dates that are not linked. If they guess only dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess only exponents, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess linked exponents and dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess unlinked exponents and dates, they may have 3 exponent and 3 date guesses active. If they initially guessed only dates or exponents, they may added the other at a later time. This added guesses are unlinked. Linked guesses are expired/made passe/etc. when either part expires. The 60 day wait applies. This is a frivolous game with no signed contracts nor actual compensation or consideration. It is only slightly more rigorous than Calvin Ball (q.v.). If the post for the guess includes some sort of numerology or other off kilter method of selecting the exponent and the exponent guessed would invoke a 60 day wait for an invalid guess, a 10x multiplier to the 60 days will be applied. The reasoning is that the poster went through some effort to select a guess and is so hung up on "their method" that they didn't bother to touch base with reality. "Expect in the next version of this, for range guesses to impose a wait to. Also, waits because of improper guesses will be longer than for expired guesses." The intent in the next game is for post #2 to contain a summary of the current and past guesses. To be continued... Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20230122 at 07:53 Reason: edit section 
20181212, 20:07  #2 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10101010001111_{2} Posts 
Predict M52
List up to date as of 2300 Sept 28, 2022 UTC
This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date. All except those guessed guessed by those assigned the exponents guessed have been tested and shown not to be a prime. Code:
Who When guessed Exponent When found MattcAnderson 9/11/2019 84000013 4/1/2020 Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20230119 at 22:59 Reason: Up dated 
20181212, 20:19  #3 
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
3×1,759 Posts 
87,654,361
December 25, 2019 
20181212, 21:43  #4 
∂^{2}ω=0
Sep 2002
República de California
5×2,351 Posts 
96000193, May 1st 2021.

20181212, 22:15  #5 
"Serge"
Mar 2008
Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2
2749_{16} Posts 
110691517
6192022 (optimistic, I know) 
20181212, 22:37  #6  
Jul 2003
Behind BB
3663_{8} Posts 
Recycling an M50 prediction...
Quote:
Last fiddled with by masser on 20181212 at 22:38 

20181214, 13:43  #7 
"Dylan"
Mar 2017
1001010010_{2} Posts 
Exponent: 97,200,647
Date: February 2, 2021 
20181214, 18:10  #8 
"Marv"
May 2009
near the Tannhäuser Gate
2^{2}×3×67 Posts 
December 31, 2019
I am betting that the as the new PRP checking is adopted by more folks, the rate of exponents being tested for compositness will greatly accelerate. 
20181214, 22:25  #9 
Jul 2009
Germany
11×61 Posts 
87885437
March 30 th 2019 Last fiddled with by moebius on 20181214 at 22:39 
20181214, 22:32  #10 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2A8F_{16} Posts 
That is not a valid guess. Your guess must be a specific prime number. No expressions or ranges. If you decide after M51 is announced to post the equivalent value, you may. But, this counts against your 3 potential guesses. The 60 rule is thus invoked.

20181214, 22:43  #11 
Jul 2009
Germany
11×61 Posts 
Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.

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