Predict M52

Uncwilly · 2018-12-12, 20:07

With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
All guesses received within the 48 hours before M52 is reported (by or to anyone by any method) are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.
The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified.
If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.
For the sake of this game, we will use the date (in UTC) that the prime is reported to and recorded by the PrimeNet server as the date (PRP or LL result). This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. If M52 is not first reported to PrimeNet, the judgement of the date to be used will be left up to George or his designee.
Previous discoverers (not the noticers) of M Primes are granted an extra guess (4 vs. the standard 3). This means the person who used the machine that first reported the prime.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignored it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.
Make your guess clear in your post.

GAME ON!

[edit]This is the area for additional info to clarify and document. In part this is to improve the post for the next Predict Mxx thread.
The goal of the game is to guess the next Mersenne Prime to be found and the date it will be found.
The winner of the exponent part of the game is the person with currently active exponent guess that is closest to the exponent of the next MP to be found.
The winner of the game's date component is the person with the currently active date guess that is the closest to the 'discovery' date (and defined in the rules).
Exponent guesses shall be expressed as integer decimal constants, without punctuation (no embedded comma, period, or space). Mxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx, or 2^xxxxxxxxx-1 are clear formats and may be used. Using the [M][/M] or [CA][/CA] tags is encouraged.
Dates need to be expressed in one of the following formats: YYYY-MM-DD, MM/DD/YYYY, [mmm, DD YYYY], or DD mmm YYYY (where mmm indicates the month name {or 3 letter abbreviation} in English).
Guesses below below the current FTC milestone are allowed, but guesses below the DC milestone are not and will incur the standard 60 day wait.
For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified." will be changed to 5 hours.
For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6." will be amended to state guess can not have a matching DC or a verified PRP (at the time of the guess). That is because those numbers can not be the next MP.
For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it." Will be amended to indicate "first" refers to the first in sequence of the posting to the forum. Edits of posts will be judge on a case by case basis.
Discovery of a factor or an LL or PRP result for an exponent that has been guessed does not invalidate it. That guess can still be the closest to the next MP.
WRT to previous discoverers: They are granted only 1 extra guess, not 1 guess per MP discovered.
Guesses with a linked exponent and date that are invalid in either part at the time of the guess are rejected in both parts. The 60 day wait applies to both parts.
When a date or exponent guess becomes passe, after the 60 day wait, the other component may be reused (subject, of course, to it being currently valid.)
Guesses can not be changed, modified, or updated after they are made. Edits of posts to change the guess may cause a ban from the current game.
A person may chose to guess: solely dates, solely exponents, exponents linked to dates, or exponents and dates that are not linked. If they guess only dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess only exponents, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess linked exponents and dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess unlinked exponents and dates, they may have 3 exponent and 3 date guesses active. If they initially guessed only dates or exponents, they may added the other at a later time. This added guesses are unlinked. Linked guesses are expired/made passe/etc. when either part expires. The 60 day wait applies.
This is a frivolous game with no signed contracts nor actual compensation or consideration. It is only slightly more rigorous than Calvin Ball (q.v.).
If the post for the guess includes some sort of numerology or other off kilter method of selecting the exponent and the exponent guessed would invoke a 60 day wait for an invalid guess, a 10x multiplier to the 60 days will be applied. The reasoning is that the poster went through some effort to select a guess and is so hung up on "their method" that they didn't bother to touch base with reality.
"Expect in the next version of this, for range guesses to impose a wait to. Also, waits because of improper guesses will be longer than for expired guesses."
The intent in the next game is for post #2 to contain a summary of the current and past guesses.
To be continued...

Uncwilly · 2018-12-12, 20:07

List up to date as of 2300 Sept 28, 2022 UTC

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date. All except those guessed guessed by those assigned the exponents guessed have been tested and shown not to be a prime.

Code:

Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
MattcAnderson	9/11/2019	84000013	4/1/2020
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1  	12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	87668491	3/14/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel  	12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	89065523	3/14/2020
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
MattcAnderson	2/25/2021	90000049	12/25/2022
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
Viliam Furik	12/3/2019	91305491	1/18/2020
patrik  	12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	91761547	3/14/2021
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn     	12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
sweety439	8/30/2019	94539113*	5/9/2021	*factored
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer  	12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	96052357*	5/21/2021	*factored
Dylan14  	12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
dcheuk  	3/10/2020	98350193	6/1/2020
Uncwilly	2/11/2020	99998441	7/31/2020	
Uncwilly	7/24/2020	100002751	10/6/2020
lukerichards			101834393*	8/1/2020	*factored
Primeinator	2/25/2021	102218101	3/1/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685711	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685769	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	103037743	2/4/2021
Primeinator	2/25/2021	103103437	3/31/2022
Raydex		2/15/2021	103237441	4/26/2021
tuckerkao	11/24/2020	103305173	
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	103347613
Primeinator	2/25/2021	104115637	8/31/2024
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	106456279	10/31/2021
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn    	 	12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95 	12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Spherical Cow	2/11/2020	107448791*	2/9/2021	*factored
Zhangrc		8/4/2021	108765463	11/1/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287103	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287119	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287131	12/14/2021	
Kvasir		12/9/2021	110235199	12/2/2022
billymac00	9/9/2022	110687989	5/11/2023
Batalov   	12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
dannyridel	7/26/2020	111906173	1/2/2021	<==FTC complete above this
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	111999799	5/27/2022
Uncwilly	1/19/2023	113998301	4/15/2023
firejuggler	5/8/2021	114034099	12/24/2022
MPrimeFinder	9/25/2022	114464843	Bad date	* posted after test started
Neil		9/28/2022	114670243	6/20/2023	* posted after test started
congsz		8/24/2022	115230449	5/1/2023
masser  	8/3/2019	115856161	7/4/2023
Uncwilly	1/19/2023	117003127	12/24/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	118034167	5/24/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64  	12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel  	12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn	        12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
Kvasir		1/19/2023	123249319	12/21/2023
Petrw1  	10/13/2020	123456841	4/3/2021
Raydex		12/5/2020	125000089	5/2/2021
Jan S		12/10/2021	126551093	10/15/2023
sweety439	8/4/2021	127027489	4/21/2023
ZFR		1/19/2023	128335301	11/29/2023
ZFR		1/19/2023	128335369	11/29/2023
ZFR		1/19/2023	128335429	11/29/2023
moebius		12/19/2020	131508427	1/1/2026
congsz		8/24/2022	141421417*	1/1/2027	*factored
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
masser  	10/13/2020	149929849	9/2/2024
Ensigm  	10/13/2020	150714349	12/11/2024
congsz		8/24/2022	173205119*	12/1/2030	*factored
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004047	8/15/2022
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004049	8/15/2022
tuckerkao	12/8/2021	196828523	
Brian-E  	12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
GP2     	1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	310347613
Dobri		8/2/2021	332192957	8/23/2024
dcheuk  	9/1/2019	333898333	11/1/2019
kriesel  	12/21/2018	402143633*	3/12/2052	*factored
ONeil		12/5/2020	852348659	12/31/2024
tServo  	12/14/2018			12/31/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018			1/13/2020
greenskull	10/12/2021			2/10/2022

petrw1 · 2018-12-12, 20:19

87,654,361

December 25, 2019

ewmayer · 2018-12-12, 21:43

96000193, May 1st 2021.

Batalov · 2018-12-12, 22:15

110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)

masser · 2018-12-12, 22:37

Recycling an M50 prediction...

Quote:

118,788,157

August 8th, 2020.

... and an M51 prediction:

Quote:

Originally Posted by masser

117003179

November 24, 2022

Dylan14 · 2018-12-14, 13:43

Exponent: 97,200,647

Date: February 2, 2021

tServo · 2018-12-14, 18:10

December 31, 2019

I am betting that the as the new PRP checking is adopted by more folks, the rate of exponents being tested for compositness will greatly accelerate.

moebius · 2018-12-14, 22:25

87885437
March 30 th 2019

Uncwilly · 2018-12-14, 22:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by moebius

(2^(M51+2000238))-1

That is not a valid guess. Your guess must be a specific prime number. No expressions or ranges. If you decide after M51 is announced to post the equivalent value, you may. But, this counts against your 3 potential guesses. The 60 rule is thus invoked.

moebius · 2018-12-14, 22:43

Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.

2018-12-12, 20:07	#1
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 5·2,179 Posts	Predict M52 With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.) THE RULES OF THE GAME: Post your guess here, no PM'ing. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it. You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M52 is reported (by or to anyone by any method) are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed. The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored. For the sake of this game, we will use the date (in UTC) that the prime is reported to and recorded by the PrimeNet server as the date (PRP or LL result). This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. If M52 is not first reported to PrimeNet, the judgement of the date to be used will be left up to George or his designee. Previous discoverers (not the noticers) of M Primes are granted an extra guess (4 vs. the standard 3). This means the person who used the machine that first reported the prime. All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated. Absurd guesses may be ignored it any statistical reports or graphs. Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread. Make your guess clear in your post. GAME ON! [edit]This is the area for additional info to clarify and document. In part this is to improve the post for the next Predict Mxx thread. The goal of the game is to guess the next Mersenne Prime to be found and the date it will be found. The winner of the exponent part of the game is the person with currently active exponent guess that is closest to the exponent of the next MP to be found. The winner of the game's date component is the person with the currently active date guess that is the closest to the 'discovery' date (and defined in the rules). Exponent guesses shall be expressed as integer decimal constants, without punctuation (no embedded comma, period, or space). Mxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx, or 2^xxxxxxxxx-1 are clear formats and may be used. Using the [M][/M] or [CA][/CA] tags is encouraged. Dates need to be expressed in one of the following formats: YYYY-MM-DD, MM/DD/YYYY, [mmm, DD YYYY], or DD mmm YYYY (where mmm indicates the month name {or 3 letter abbreviation} in English). Guesses below below the current FTC milestone are allowed, but guesses below the DC milestone are not and will incur the standard 60 day wait. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified." will be changed to 5 hours. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6." will be amended to state guess can not have a matching DC or a verified PRP (at the time of the guess). That is because those numbers can not be the next MP. For future iterations of the game, the rule that is currently stated as: "If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it." Will be amended to indicate "first" refers to the first in sequence of the posting to the forum. Edits of posts will be judge on a case by case basis. Discovery of a factor or an LL or PRP result for an exponent that has been guessed does not invalidate it. That guess can still be the closest to the next MP. WRT to previous discoverers: They are granted only 1 extra guess, not 1 guess per MP discovered. Guesses with a linked exponent and date that are invalid in either part at the time of the guess are rejected in both parts. The 60 day wait applies to both parts. When a date or exponent guess becomes passe, after the 60 day wait, the other component may be reused (subject, of course, to it being currently valid.) Guesses can not be changed, modified, or updated after they are made. Edits of posts to change the guess may cause a ban from the current game. A person may chose to guess: solely dates, solely exponents, exponents linked to dates, or exponents and dates that are not linked. If they guess only dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess only exponents, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess linked exponents and dates, they may only have 3 active guesses. If they guess unlinked exponents and dates, they may have 3 exponent and 3 date guesses active. If they initially guessed only dates or exponents, they may added the other at a later time. This added guesses are unlinked. Linked guesses are expired/made passe/etc. when either part expires. The 60 day wait applies. This is a frivolous game with no signed contracts nor actual compensation or consideration. It is only slightly more rigorous than Calvin Ball (q.v.). If the post for the guess includes some sort of numerology or other off kilter method of selecting the exponent and the exponent guessed would invoke a 60 day wait for an invalid guess, a 10x multiplier to the 60 days will be applied. The reasoning is that the poster went through some effort to select a guess and is so hung up on "their method" that they didn't bother to touch base with reality. "Expect in the next version of this, for range guesses to impose a wait to. Also, waits because of improper guesses will be longer than for expired guesses." The intent in the next game is for post #2 to contain a summary of the current and past guesses. To be continued... Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2023-01-22 at 07:53 Reason: edit section

2018-12-14, 22:25	#9
moebius Jul 2009 Germany 11×61 Posts	87885437 March 30 th 2019 Last fiddled with by moebius on 2018-12-14 at 22:39

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2018-12-14, 22:43	#11
moebius Jul 2009 Germany 11×61 Posts	Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.