Predict M52

[LaurV]

What do we get if we guess right?

[christian_]

93456799 - 7 April 2019
106456799 - 22 January 2020
146456881 - 3 February 2022

[Spherical Cow]

It can't be this close to M51, but that's what I said about the last two primes. I'll go with 97211981, October 30, 2019.

[ixfd64]

M96052357 on May 21, 2021
M110691683 on January 3, 2025
M121596589 on October 8, 2027

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by Neutron3529

85615531 Oct. 2019
87946949 Oct. 2019
92074531 Oct. 2019

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

1. .
2. .
3. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.

Oct 1 is used by your first guess. Therefore the dates for your 2nd and 3rd guesses are being ignored. You must wait 60 days before guessing anymore dates. At that time you may only guess the date, you can't update the number.

[patrik]

91502209 on December 4, 2020

[Uncwilly]

The advantages of guessing late:

84000017 on Feb 28, 2019
89999999 on Apr 15, 2020
95000167 on Sept 24, 2021

[firejuggler]

lets say M
M85,020,577 on 1 january 2020
M87,522,767 on 3 january 2021
M90,098,611 on 1 february 2022

[Uncwilly]

A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:
The first one is a scatter plot. The 2 outer lines were upper and lower bounds (until firejuggler came in and guessed all 3 above the upper bound.) The box represents more than half of the guesses. And I ignored the most pessimistic guesses for this.

In the second I re-assigned the dates and guesses, such that the lowest guess was paired with the earliest date. Graphed with a nice trendline for your pleasure.

[GP2]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:

So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.

I'll revive my previous guess of 282,362,693 on March 3, 2025. And yes, it's another p=1 (mod 4).

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by GP2

So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.

I left these off the charts:
258150181 March 12, 2052
402143633
and these had no date associated with them, so they are not on the left plot:
87885437
87946949
92074531

Current summary

Who		When guessed	Exponent	When found
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1		12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
moebius		12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel		12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
patrik		12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn		12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer		12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64		12/27/2018	96052357	5/21/2021
Dylan14		12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn		12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95		12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Batalov		12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64		12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
masser		12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
masser		12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64		12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel		12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn		12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
Brian-E		12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
GP2		1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
kriesel		12/21/2018	402143633	3/12/2052
tServo		12/14/2018			12/31/2019
moebius		12/14/2018			1/13/2020