mersenneforum.org > Data Thinking out loud about getting under 20M unfactored exponents
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 2021-04-21, 20:17 #408 firejuggler     Apr 2010 Over the rainbow A0316 Posts Would the sub 100k exponent(those with no know factors) get any help with PP1 (those which were ecm-ed to T60 or above)?
 2021-04-21, 20:19 #409 Prime95 P90 years forever!     Aug 2002 Yeehaw, FL 7·1,069 Posts 15.75M expo, 2^69 TF Code: [Apr 21 16:14] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=5000000 [Apr 21 16:14] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.366% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.441% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.52% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.56% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.666% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.779% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.811% [Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.957% [Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000 [Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.11%
 2021-04-21, 20:29 #410 Prime95 P90 years forever!     Aug 2002 Yeehaw, FL 748310 Posts 4.7M expo, TF to 2^68 On further thought exponent size does not affect probability calculations. Only TF,B1,B2. Code: [Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=5000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.419% [Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.503% [Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.593% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.633% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.753% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.879% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.91% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.07% [Apr 21 16:27] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000 [Apr 21 16:27] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.24%
2021-04-21, 20:31   #411
chalsall
If I May

"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002

225428 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Prime95 On further thought exponent size does not affect probability calculations. Only TF,B1,B2.
Do you have any gut feeling for how accurate the estimates are?

2021-04-21, 20:36   #412
Prime95
P90 years forever!

Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL

1D3B16 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by firejuggler Would the sub 100k exponent(those with no know factors) get any help with PP1 (those which were ecm-ed to T60 or above)?
One P+1 run would be just like running one more ECM curve. The P+1 "curve" stands little chance of success just like running one ECM curve. But at least P+1 would be faster than the one ECM curve.

So, no, you're not likely to find a factor, but yes it is worth doing. Again, if the current ECM level is B1=44M then I'd do at least P+1 B1=500M to take advantage of P+1's faster stage 1. Also, stay away from the really small exponents (say sub-50K) where GMP-ECM with its FFT stage 2 would be the better choice.

2021-04-21, 20:40   #413
Prime95
P90 years forever!

Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL

7·1,069 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by chalsall Do you have any gut feeling for how accurate the estimates are?
Unless, I've misunderstood the math (not an insignificant possibility) or there is a bug, then the estimate should be spot on. I'm using Mihai's P-1 smoothness probability estimator. Whereas, P-1 get 20+ free bits of smoothness due to the known 2*p in factors, P+1 gets only a couple of free bits due to Peter Montgomery's ingenuity.

 2021-04-21, 21:05 #414 petrw1 1976 Toyota Corona years forever!     "Wayne" Nov 2006 Saskatchewan, Canada 41×113 Posts I see these results Code: Architects Cubed rdt1 42600139 NF-PP1 2021-04-21 18:53 0.0 3.2837 Start=2/7, B1=400000, B2=16800000 Architects Cubed GCE_2 42600221 NF-PP1 2021-04-21 19:09 0.0 4.0777 Start=2/7, B1=500000, B2=22000000 Architects Cubed GCE_1 42600289 NF-PP1 2021-04-21 19:28 0.0 5.0302 Start=2/7, B1=600000, B2=27600000 Architects Cubed GCE_3 42600367 NF-PP1 2021-04-21 19:50 0.0 5.9485 Start=2/7, B1=700000, B2=32900000 Architects Cubed GCE_4 42600379 NF-PP1 2021-04-21 19:59 0.0 6.8896 Start=2/7, B1=800000, B2=38400000
2021-04-21, 21:08   #415
James Heinrich

"James Heinrich"
May 2004
ex-Northern Ontario

22×839 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by James Heinrich This is crude, but I have created a placeholder page to list what known P+1 efforts have been recorded: https://www.mersenne.ca/pplus1.php Note of course that my data will always be up to 24h out of date (synch'ed just after midnight UTC). Will get a better report on mersenne.org (at least if George can email me where to find the P+1 data).
There is now a version on mersenne.org with access to live data. Still needs to be prettied up with filtering parameters and such, but it's a start:
https://www.mersenne.org/report_pplus1/

 2021-04-21, 21:49 #416 kruoli     "Oliver" Sep 2017 Porta Westfalica, DE 1EE16 Posts Thanks for the page! Maybe you could add a NF/F column? I'm eager to see when the first new factor gets found with P+1.
2021-04-21, 21:57   #417
James Heinrich

"James Heinrich"
May 2004
ex-Northern Ontario

22×839 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kruoli Thanks for the page! Maybe you could add a NF/F column? I'm eager to see when the first new factor gets found with P+1.
The mersenne.ca page includes factors, if any.
The mersenne.org data table George pointed me to does not include information about factors, I'll have ask him about that.

2021-04-22, 00:13   #418
chalsall
If I May

"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002

2·3·5·11·29 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by James Heinrich There is now a version on mersenne.org with access to live data. Still needs to be prettied up with filtering parameters and such, but it's a start: https://www.mersenne.org/report_pplus1/
Coolness! Thanks!!!

And you know where this leads, don't you...?

You'll now have to do a cost/benefit analysis to determine where the economic cross-over points are between ECM, deep TF'ing, deep P-1'ing, and this new P+1!!! As a function of 0.1M range, please...

 Similar Threads Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post jschwar313 GPU to 72 3 2016-01-31 00:50 Batalov Factoring 6 2011-12-27 22:40 jasong jasong 1 2008-11-11 09:43 devarajkandadai Math 4 2007-07-25 03:01 WraithX GMP-ECM 1 2006-03-19 22:16

All times are UTC. The time now is 13:12.

Sat May 8 13:12:47 UTC 2021 up 30 days, 7:53, 0 users, load averages: 2.34, 2.32, 2.26