20210421, 20:17  #408 
Apr 2010
Over the rainbow
A03_{16} Posts 
Would the sub 100k exponent(those with no know factors) get any help with PP1 (those which were ecmed to T60 or above)?

20210421, 20:19  #409 
P90 years forever!
Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL
7·1,069 Posts 
15.75M expo, 2^69 TF
Code:
[Apr 21 16:14] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=5000000 [Apr 21 16:14] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.366% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.441% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=250000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.52% [Apr 21 16:15] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:15] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.56% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.666% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=500000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.779% [Apr 21 16:16] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:16] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.811% [Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.957% [Apr 21 16:17] P+1 on M15750199 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000 [Apr 21 16:17] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.11% 
20210421, 20:29  #410 
P90 years forever!
Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL
7483_{10} Posts 
4.7M expo, TF to 2^68
On further thought exponent size does not affect probability calculations. Only TF,B1,B2. Code:
[Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=5000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.419% [Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.503% [Apr 21 16:25] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=250000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:25] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.593% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=10000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.633% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.753% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=500000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.879% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=20000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 0.91% [Apr 21 16:26] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=40000000 [Apr 21 16:26] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.07% [Apr 21 16:27] P+1 on M4715201 with B1=1000000, B2=80000000 [Apr 21 16:27] Chance of finding a factor assuming no ECM has been done is an estimated 1.24% 
20210421, 20:31  #411 
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
22542_{8} Posts 

20210421, 20:36  #412  
P90 years forever!
Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL
1D3B_{16} Posts 
Quote:
So, no, you're not likely to find a factor, but yes it is worth doing. Again, if the current ECM level is B1=44M then I'd do at least P+1 B1=500M to take advantage of P+1's faster stage 1. Also, stay away from the really small exponents (say sub50K) where GMPECM with its FFT stage 2 would be the better choice. 

20210421, 20:40  #413 
P90 years forever!
Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL
7·1,069 Posts 
Unless, I've misunderstood the math (not an insignificant possibility) or there is a bug, then the estimate should be spot on. I'm using Mihai's P1 smoothness probability estimator. Whereas, P1 get 20+ free bits of smoothness due to the known 2*p in factors, P+1 gets only a couple of free bits due to Peter Montgomery's ingenuity.

20210421, 21:05  #414 
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
41×113 Posts 
I see these results
Code:
Architects Cubed rdt1 42600139 NFPP1 20210421 18:53 0.0 3.2837 Start=2/7, B1=400000, B2=16800000 Architects Cubed GCE_2 42600221 NFPP1 20210421 19:09 0.0 4.0777 Start=2/7, B1=500000, B2=22000000 Architects Cubed GCE_1 42600289 NFPP1 20210421 19:28 0.0 5.0302 Start=2/7, B1=600000, B2=27600000 Architects Cubed GCE_3 42600367 NFPP1 20210421 19:50 0.0 5.9485 Start=2/7, B1=700000, B2=32900000 Architects Cubed GCE_4 42600379 NFPP1 20210421 19:59 0.0 6.8896 Start=2/7, B1=800000, B2=38400000 
20210421, 21:08  #415  
"James Heinrich"
May 2004
exNorthern Ontario
2^{2}×839 Posts 
Quote:
https://www.mersenne.org/report_pplus1/ 

20210421, 21:49  #416 
"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE
1EE_{16} Posts 
Thanks for the page! Maybe you could add a NF/F column? I'm eager to see when the first new factor gets found with P+1.

20210421, 21:57  #417  
"James Heinrich"
May 2004
exNorthern Ontario
2^{2}×839 Posts 
Quote:
The mersenne.org data table George pointed me to does not include information about factors, I'll have ask him about that. 

20210422, 00:13  #418  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
2·3·5·11·29 Posts 
Quote:
And you know where this leads, don't you...? You'll now have to do a cost/benefit analysis to determine where the economic crossover points are between ECM, deep TF'ing, deep P1'ing, and this new P+1!!! As a function of 0.1M range, please... 

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