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Old 2021-03-26, 04:34   #364
petrw1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by axn View Post
After about 3.5 months of P-1 (covering about 80% of the range), and some supplemental TF, 3.8M is done. This was the second hardest range available in the 3M range after 3.6M. After the current batch of P-1 (to be completed in about 24 hrs), I will be moving on to 3.4M range. Hopefully, at this rate, the entirety of 3m range will be completed before the year end.
Well done.
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Old 2021-03-28, 01:57   #365
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Default Annual 14.0M check-in

One year update on 14.0M; about 2/3rds of the way there... May be done by end of 2021. Hopefully within another 12 months.
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Old 2021-03-28, 04:36   #366
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One year update on 14.0M; about 2/3rds of the way there... May be done by end of 2021. Hopefully within another 12 months.
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Old 2021-03-28, 10:58   #367
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ETA for the main 20M unfactored project based on numbers of factors found last 30 days and last 365 days:
July 2022 - February 2023

On Oct 1st 2020 the same ETAs were: January 2022 - March 2023
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Old 2021-03-28, 11:49   #368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATH View Post
ETA for the main 20M unfactored project based on numbers of factors found last 30 days and last 365 days:
July 2022 - February 2023

On Oct 1st 2020 the same ETAs were: January 2022 - March 2023
This will slow down further. The main source of the factors is TF, the bulk of which is being done by SRBase. They are going thru the range 100M-1B, 1 bit at a time (currently at mid 500M range and 72-73). The factor finding rate will increase till they complete 1B to 73, and then will drop off big time when they start 100M at 73-74.

You will get a much more accurate estimate, if you try to model this TF wave more accurately.

EDIT:-

Some crude modeling:

72-73 will complete in next 14 weeks and find 113k factors
73-74 will complete in another 99 weeks and find 228k factors
74-75 will complete in another 224 weeks and find 237k factors

This should complete the range (with other factors coming in from elsewhere). That is 6.5 years. If SRBase doubles their compute power, this could be done in 3 years.

Last fiddled with by axn on 2021-03-28 at 12:34
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Old 2021-03-28, 14:31   #369
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Quote:
Originally Posted by axn View Post
This should complete the range (with other factors coming in from elsewhere). That is 6.5 years.
Cool that is pretty close to how long I think it might take for us to complete the low end; under 50M now.
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Old 2021-03-28, 15:06   #370
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Quote:
Originally Posted by axn View Post
This will slow down further. The main source of the factors is TF, the bulk of which is being done by SRBase. They are going thru the range 100M-1B, 1 bit at a time (currently at mid 500M range and 72-73). The factor finding rate will increase till they complete 1B to 73, and then will drop off big time when they start 100M at 73-74.

You will get a much more accurate estimate, if you try to model this TF wave more accurately.
Here are some graphs of the numbers factors found which shows the waves you are talking about which started April 2020.

Each point on the graph is the number of factors found during the last 30 days up to that date. The huge spike in 2009 is after primenet v5 was released (in Oct 2008?) and the range 79.3M - 1000M opened up.
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Old 2021-03-28, 15:31   #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATH View Post
Here are some graphs of the numbers factors found which shows the waves you are talking about which started April 2020.

Each point on the graph is the number of factors found during the last 30 days up to that date. The huge spike in 2009 is after primenet v5 was released (in Oct 2008?) and the range 79.3M - 1000M opened up.
I believe the mini spikes in 2020 are as srbase moves from 100M to 999M in each bit range.
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Old 2021-03-29, 01:24   #372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petrw1 View Post
I believe the mini spikes in 2020 are as srbase moves from 100M to 999M in each bit range.
Yep. First one is the 70-71 pass, second is 71-72 pass, and the the third one (yet to peak) is the 72-73 pass. These have the classic sawtooth pattern -- slowly rising until dropping suddenly. Each sawtooth will have twice the width of the previous and probably half the height, from now on.
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Old 2021-03-29, 12:14   #373
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The speed of srbase depends also on how many users donate GPU time to the trial factoring project.

According to https://srbase.my-firewall.org/sr5/server_status.php , there are 121 active users, which doubles the number of users when the project was working on the 72-bit range.
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Old 2021-03-29, 12:50   #374
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Yep. It is impossible to model that, but I used the thruput from the last 4 weeks for my projection.
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