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Old 2020-08-15, 16:19   #1013
storm5510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall
"Don't Panic." - Douglas Adams.

Seriously, just manage the situation as best you can. That's all you can actually really do, so focus on that.
For me, it is a bit worrisome, but nothing more. I certainly do not dwell on it like many do. I prefer to use my mental energy for other things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by S485122
It seems that, for as yet unknown reasons, cats like the smell of bleach. A search of "cats bleach" on Internet will return a lot of results...
There is a lot of information there. All I can say is, his nose is a lot stronger than mine.
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Old 2020-08-19, 20:07   #1014
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What the immune response to the coronavirus says about the prospects for a vaccine | Nature
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Old 2020-08-21, 15:46   #1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
The peak is now >24,000 above the norm for that week.
Because the data are lagging,
..
I have not plotted the last 4 weeks.
That number is about 24,840 now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
I feel that the link that I have been using, while lagging, may soon be much more reliable in the future.
....
The attached file is a graph generated on the site. While aimed at Flu and Pneumonia, COVID looks like it is getting caught as a happenstance. It shows a second peak developing.
Here is the update of my graph with this weeks numbers. The last 2 weeks numbers are not plotted as they are vastly incomplete. I expect the week 31 number to go up to closer to 10,000 (maybe even 11,000) before it settles down.
USA election day is on week 45.
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Old 2020-08-24, 19:46   #1016
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Paper on long term survival of virus on/in food shipments, and what it means for viral spread globally, including to regions that have eliminated it. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....255166v1.full
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Old 2020-08-29, 00:02   #1017
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SARS-CoV-2 infection of human iPSC-derived cardiac cells predicts novel cytopathic features in hearts of COVID-19 patients | (preprint) bioRxiv. From the abstract:
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COVID-19 causes cardiac dysfunction in up to 50% of patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear…. These striking transcriptomic and cytopathic changes provide a roadmap to understand the mechanisms of COVID-19 cardiac damage, search for potential treatments, and determine the basis for prolonged cardiac morbidity observed in this pandemic.
97,000 People Got Convalescent Plasma. Who Knows if It Works? | WIRED
Quote:
As of Monday, August 17, a nationwide program to treat Covid-19 patients with a fluid made from the blood of people who’d recovered from the disease—so-called convalescent plasma—had reached 97,319 patients.

That’s a huge number of people, considering that nobody really knows whether convalescent plasma actually works against Covid-19.

A spontaneously generated, self-assembling group of clinicians and cross-disciplinary researchers that built the nationwide program to ensure “expanded access” to convalescent plasma also created protocols for randomized, controlled trials, the gold standard for evidence in science. They hoped to test plasma’s ability to prevent disease after exposure, its capacity to treat Covid-19—and what Michael Joyner, an exercise physiologist at the Mayo Clinic who was instrumental in setting up the expanded-access network, called a “Hail Mary” protocol to try to help people who are severely ill, on ventilators.

The distribution system got approved and built; the trial protocols did not. They never began.

There are plenty of reasons to think plasma might help fight Covid-19. Physicians have used it for more than a century; it’s made by taking blood from people who’ve recovered from a disease and spinning it in a centrifuge down to a frothy, yellow liquid that contains the sum total of the donor’s immune response—molecules that attack all invading germs, and some that specifically target all the individual pathogens the donor has ever encountered. But actual rigorous trials of the stuff are rare. Dozens of randomized, controlled clinical trials are underway—tests that systematically compare the same kinds of people at similar stages of the disease who get convalescent plasma to those who don’t.

Even without that rigor, this year tens of thousands of people received plasma for Covid-19. It played out as a one-on-one decision between physicians and patients, not a population-scale experiment designed to elicit knowledge about its efficacy. A preprint from the expanded-access group, not yet peer-reviewed, recounts the outcomes of more than 35,000 of these recipients at hundreds of hospitals. It retroactively splits that population into groups based on when in their illness they got plasma, or how laden the plasma was with the antibodies that actually do the disease-fighting.

But, as the researchers and outside experts both acknowledge, that’s not as good as a clinical trial in which people get randomly assigned to a group that gets a drug (or procedure or surgery or whatever) versus a group that doesn’t, and then someone compares the results. And that’s a palpable loss.

“Fifty thousand people have been given a treatment, and we cannot know whether it worked or not,” says Martin Landray, one of the leaders of the Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapies (or Recovery) Trial in England, a large-scale, multi-center, multi-drug randomized controlled trial that showed that the corticosteroid dexamethasone saved the lives of Covid-19 patients and the autoimmune drug hydroxychloroquine did not. (That 50,000 number was from a few weeks back, just after the plasma preprint came out.) “You wouldn’t need to randomize 50,000 patients. You wouldn’t need to randomize 5,000 patients to get the answer,” he says. “But that one difference is the difference between the effort being worthwhile or not.”

Here’s another perspective, using the more up-to-date number: “In my mind, treating 98,000 people with plasma and not having conclusive data if it worked is problematic, and we should have a more robust data set before we give 98,000 people a product,” says John Beigel, associate director for clinical research at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Beigel was the lead author on the study of the drug remdesivir that led to its incorporation into the US standard of care for Covid-19.
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On Wednesday, The New York Times reported that in light of the current lack of efficacy data, the FDA has put on hold plans to issue an Emergency Use Authorization to allow anyone with Covid-19 to be treated with convalescent plasma, even beyond the Mayo-led program. (In an emailed statement, Anand Shah, deputy commissioner for medical and scientific affairs at the FDA, wrote: “Per policy, we are not able to comment on whether or not we will take any action regarding emergency use authorization for convalescent plasma and will render a decision at the appropriate time.”)

What looked at the beginning of the pandemic like a rare bright spot—that a classic treatment used in pandemics for the past century might prove effective in this one, too, and provide a relatively simple stopgap before monoclonal antibodies and vaccines—now looks dimmer. It’s not that it doesn’t work. It’s worse than that: Because of failures in the system of how science gets done, nobody knows...
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Old 2020-08-29, 22:44   #1018
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The University of Arizona says it caught a dorm's covid-19 outbreak before it started. Its secret weapon: poop. - Houston Chronicle
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Old 2020-08-30, 04:27   #1019
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So, they did a screening, where you collect secretions from one infected guy, without mixing it (diluting it) with anything and didn't detect the virus, but then did another screening from a big pile of shit into which two infected students shit once per day for a week, which was combined with another fifteen thousand shits from another five thousand students shitting for a week, and they detected the virus? Sorry, but here, it smells...
In spite of my daughter, who is the expert in shit analyzing says it is possible, to me, it smells... (at least politically).

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2020-08-30 at 04:31
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Old 2020-08-30, 20:28   #1020
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@LaurV: the technique has been used for years with other viruses (e.g. polio), so before calling BS, perhaps you should read up on it? You start with a big bunch of gloop perhaps containing an exceedingly tiny amount of viral genome fragments. Working in your favor is the fact that all key parts of the target virus genome have been sequenced by multiple labs worldwide, so you use those data to look for some specific target gene sequences which uniquely identify your quarry in the gloop. So you need some way to fish out incredibly tiny amounts of the target sequences from the gloop, and somehow concentrate just those. Hmm, what does that sound like? Ah yes, it sounds like this.
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Old 2020-08-31, 13:03   #1021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
it sounds like this.
nope, I won't read anything whose initials are abbreviated to pcr!
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Old 2020-08-31, 15:09   #1022
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaurV View Post
nope, I won't read anything whose initials are abbreviated to pcr!
One of these days, I am going to reach out and pull that tongue through my screen. Prepare yourself...

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Old 2020-09-01, 10:56   #1023
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Default OpenPandemics @ WCG

Probably not an interesting thing to say here but I don't think it violates any forum rules so I'll say it anyways: recently I've actually stopped contributingto GIMPS, except for GPU factoring on colab. Instead I began to donate all my computational power to OpenPandemics at World Community Grid. I'll be back here once all this is over.
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