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Old 2020-04-03, 14:45   #485
Till's Avatar
"Tilman Neumann"
Jan 2016

5158 Posts

I started to observe the corona virus outbreak around Jan. 24, when I read the (infamous) Feigl-Ding tweet mentioned here:

Now some useless numbers (hello retina):
At that point, there were roughly 1000 confirmed cases and 50 deaths. That was around 70 days ago.

Today the world has more than 1.000.000 confirmed cases and 50.000 deaths. If we assume that the growth continues as before, then by Jun. 12 we will have cases and 50m deaths worldwide. These numbers are near to the estimates for the "Spanish flu" from 1918.

Another parallel with the Spanish flu is that the origin of the pandemics is disputed, see The german wikipedia page states "Ungeachtet des irreführenden Namens, der auf zeitgenössische Zeitungsmeldungen zurückgeht, gehen die meisten Wissenschaftler heute davon aus, dass die Pandemie ihren Ursprung in den USA hatte" (my translation: despite its misleading name originating from contemporary news reports, today most scientists act on the assumption that the pandemics had its origin in the USA)

Yet another possible parallel: "To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States", second paragraph.
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Old 2020-04-03, 15:12   #486
retina's Avatar
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair

22·1,327 Posts

Originally Posted by Till View Post
If we assume that the growth continues as before, then by Jun. 12 we will have cases and 50m deaths worldwide.
We might already have 1B cases, just that we haven't tested enough people yet to see if that is so.
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Old 2020-04-03, 21:19   #487
ewmayer's Avatar
Sep 2002
República de California

7×1,559 Posts

What's a virus, anyway? Part 1: The bare-bones basics - Stanford Medicine

This is interesting - why soapy washing works well to remove some viruses but not others:
Some viruses also wear greasy overcoats, called envelopes, made from stolen shards of the membranes of the last cell they infected. Influenza and hepatitis C viruses have envelopes, as do coronaviruses, herpesviruses and HIV. Rhinoviruses, which are responsible for most common colds, and polioviruses don't. Here's a practical takeaway: Enveloped viruses particularly despise soap because it disrupts greasy membranes. Soap and water are to these viruses what exhaling garlic is to a vampire, which is why washing your hands works wonders.
The link to Part 2 at bottom of the article is missing, here is that:

What’s a virus, anyway? Part 2: How coronaviruses infect us — and how viruses created us
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Old 2020-04-03, 22:37   #488
kladner's Avatar
"Kieren, ktony"
Jul 2011

3·52·127 Posts

Thanks for the informative links.
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