Newer milestone thread - Page 246

De Wandelaar · 2017-09-05, 19:24

rudy235 · 2017-09-05, 19:45

OK, so our next BIG milestone is the first time checking of the mersenne prime of exponent 74,207,281
There are 39 exponents left to get there but one of them 74101927 is suppossed to take ~28 months to complete!

There must be a serious glitch in the program that estimates the completion which is supposed to end on 2019-12-21, because even a simple "rule of three" suggests around 10 months (293 days). Of course, it will expire in 21 days and let's hope it is given to ATH

Madpoo · 2017-09-06, 03:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudy235

OK, so our next BIG milestone is the first time checking of the mersenne prime of exponent 74,207,281
There are 39 exponents left to get there but one of them 74101927 is suppossed to take ~28 months to complete!

There must be a serious glitch in the program that estimates the completion which is supposed to end on 2019-12-21, because even a simple "rule of three" suggests around 10 months (293 days). Of course, it will expire in 21 days and let's hope it is given to ATH

18 of those 39, I'm estimating will take longer to complete than it will to reach the expiration point.

These in particular are estimating to take a REALLY long time:
74181521
74051921
74055439
74097707
74101927
74202361

That last one ... based on it's past 47 data points of check-ins, I'm showing it's actual days-to-complete as 2800 days. It's moved an awesome 0.0348% per day since it first checked in with any progress.

74181521 is estimating 1210 days, the rest are 220-550 days, somewhere in that big range. They'll all expire in due course.

The one you mentioned, 74101927, I'm estimating 213 days to go with an average 0.3581% per day, with 55 data points. The fact that the client is now reporting a much longer ETA means it's probably slowed down even more than that. I could check, but I'm too lazy right now.

The client is saying 847 days. Meh.

GP2 · 2017-09-06, 04:32

When the milestone of 42M is reached in a few months, this will simultaneously result in the double-checking of all remaining exponents whose first time test was in 2007. All exponents from earlier years have already been double-checked, as well as all of the very early exponents with no timestamp.

Currently there are maybe four 2007-era exponents in the 41.1M range, three of which will complete the double-check in a few days, and one that is assigned but hasn't started yet (41156153); and there is also the exponent 41979199 which is moving along slowly and will probably expire before the current assignee finishes it.

kladner · 2017-09-06, 04:42

If it matches, 41719147 will complete in 21.5 hours.

Then I'll be back to Cat 3 stuff.

retina · 2017-09-06, 09:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madpoo

On the https://www.mersenne.org/report_mile...fault.mock.php page I made a few changes...

Quote:

Originally Posted by retina

In some places is says "discovered!!" and others is says "discovered!" and others it says "is discovered!".

Now that the new page appears to be up, it still has the weird unexpected factorials, weirder unexpected double factorials, and the unexpected "is".

Madpoo · 2017-09-06, 22:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP2

When the milestone of 42M is reached in a few months, this will simultaneously result in the double-checking of all remaining exponents whose first time test was in 2007. All exponents from earlier years have already been double-checked, as well as all of the very early exponents with no timestamp.

Currently there are maybe four 2007-era exponents in the 41.1M range, three of which will complete the double-check in a few days, and one that is assigned but hasn't started yet (41156153); and there is also the exponent 41979199 which is moving along slowly and will probably expire before the current assignee finishes it.

Here are all 8 of the exponents, still unverified, from earlier than '2008-01-01'

Code:

exponent	Date
41979199	2007-07-04
41386967	2007-12-31
41404529	2007-12-31
41188673	2007-12-31
41166991	2007-12-31
41156153	2007-12-31
41184851	2007-12-31
41439883	2007-12-31

And for fun, there are 11,038 unverified from < '2009-01-01' ... largest one is M48452233, so when that becomes our new "all verified below", then we can cross off the 2008 and below stuff as done-and-done.

Madpoo · 2017-09-06, 22:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by retina

Now that the new page appears to be up, it still has the weird unexpected factorials, weirder unexpected double factorials, and the unexpected "is".

Well, I didn't fix any other text besides what I mentioned.

Okay, I made those consistent ... sorry, but I think a new prime discovery deserves at least one exclamation point (but only one). I also removed the extraneous "is" from the earlier primes (they didn't show up in the later listings).

Changes on the "mock" page for now and I'll probably just roll those out when the next milestone gets checked off the list.

GP2 · 2017-09-06, 23:57

Since we're quibbling about punctuation...

Code:

Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 74 million

We could add a hyphen, to make it "first-time checking".

Makes it a little less ambiguous. Otherwise, a reporter or other non-participant visiting this page might wonder what "time checking" is.

cuBerBruce · 2017-09-07, 04:14

The number of users with more than 100,000 GHz days credit is now too gross.

Edit: I meant two gross.

Madpoo · 2017-09-08, 03:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuBerBruce

The number of users with more than 100,000 GHz days credit is now too gross.

Edit: I meant two gross.

Hey, just because some of the participants may have poor hygiene, you don't have to call them gross.

Oh... you meant the unit of measure.

2017-09-05, 19:45	#2697
rudy235 Jun 2015 Vallejo, CA/. 1712₈ Posts	OK, so our next BIG milestone is the first time checking of the mersenne prime of exponent 74,207,281 There are 39 exponents left to get there but one of them 74101927 is suppossed to take ~28 months to complete! There must be a serious glitch in the program that estimates the completion which is supposed to end on 2019-12-21, because even a simple "rule of three" suggests around 10 months (293 days). Of course, it will expire in 21 days and let's hope it is given to ATH Last fiddled with by rudy235 on 2017-09-05 at 19:46

2017-09-06, 04:32	#2699
GP2 Sep 2003 A17₁₆ Posts	When the milestone of 42M is reached in a few months, this will simultaneously result in the double-checking of all remaining exponents whose first time test was in 2007. All exponents from earlier years have already been double-checked, as well as all of the very early exponents with no timestamp. Currently there are maybe four 2007-era exponents in the 41.1M range, three of which will complete the double-check in a few days, and one that is assigned but hasn't started yet (41156153); and there is also the exponent 41979199 which is moving along slowly and will probably expire before the current assignee finishes it. Last fiddled with by GP2 on 2017-09-06 at 04:33

2017-09-06, 23:57	#2704
GP2 Sep 2003 3²×7×41 Posts	Since we're quibbling about punctuation... Code: Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 74 million We could add a hyphen, to make it "first-time checking". Makes it a little less ambiguous. Otherwise, a reporter or other non-participant visiting this page might wonder what "time checking" is.

2017-09-07, 04:14	#2705
cuBerBruce Aug 2012 Mass., USA 13E₁₆ Posts	The number of users with more than 100,000 GHz days credit is now too gross. Edit: I meant two gross. Last fiddled with by cuBerBruce on 2017-09-07 at 04:14

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kladner "Kieren" Jul 2011 In My Own Galaxy! 11×13×71 Posts	If it matches, 41719147 will complete in 21.5 hours. Then I'll be back to Cat 3 stuff.