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2022-10-04, 22:30   #441
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

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Aug 2003
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I posted this list back on the 29th elsewhere on the interwebs:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly I could see various state actors wanting to damage the pipelines for various reasons. Russia = cutting off their nose to spite their face, 'punishing' Germany et al for supporting Ukraine Ukraine = to keep the rest of Europe from backing down and letting the gas flow and to keep Russia from getting money from gas sales Germany, France, Norway, or other European country = as a finger in the eye of Russia, "you ain't never selling Europe any more of your gas [unless maybe it goes through Ukraine and they get a piece of the action]. USA (less likely) = Similar to Ukraine or Europe reasons. Israel = To take a nice kick at Putin.
I called out Norway as it does have some interesting history of brave acts. The Balkans and southern Europe are not likely to do something like this.
Greenpeace and ELF came up in the later discussion.

2022-10-04, 22:55   #442
kruoli

"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE

24578 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Till And [...] Russia should [not] have an interest to destroy their own multi-billion dollar investment.
They have! They have spared one of the lanes of Nord Stream 2. They want to force the Germans to use Nord Stream 2 instead of Nord Stream 1. Germany using Nord Stream 2 would be some kind of defeat. Russia has no interest in keeping Nord Stream 1 alive.

2022-10-05, 00:23   #443
Dr Sardonicus

Feb 2017
Nowhere

185216 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Till Cui bono? US, Poland, Ucraine, Norway, Netherlands, UK are my candidates. I'ld rather exclude Norway. People suggesting Germany have no clue. There is still some not too small fraction of people supporting the pipeline. And neither Germany nor Russia should have an interest to destroy their own multi-billion dollar investment.
In Germany's case, the deed is already done. On February 22, 2022 (after Russia sent military forces into parts of two Ukraine provinces it had just recognized as independent states, but before Vlad the Insane ordered the Special Military Disaster to commence), Germany's Chancellor declared that Nord Stream 2 "cannot go forward."

OK - withholding approval merely slammed on the brakes. Even so, Gazprom's Swiss subsidiary which owns Nord Stream 2, filed for bankruptcy within about a week.

And the reason for not proceeding with the project? Being overly dependent on Russian energy is not in Germany's national security interest. That is an explicit German interest in at least abandoning the project.

Germany has subsequently committed to replacing all Russian energy sources by summer of 2024. So it seems to me that Germany has already destroyed its investment in Nord Stream 2.

At least until Russia has to sue for peace...

 2022-10-05, 13:55 #444 xilman Bamboozled!     "𒉺𒌌𒇷𒆷𒀭" May 2003 Down not across 3×132×23 Posts It seems that over in the Kherson region Russian forces are now advancing to defensive positions at an organized pace whereas the Ukrainians are rapidly retreating as a rabble into the areas vacated.
2022-10-05, 15:17   #445
Till

"Tilman Neumann"
Jan 2016
Germany

10258 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kruoli They have! They have spared one of the lanes of Nord Stream 2. They want to force the Germans to use Nord Stream 2 instead of Nord Stream 1. Germany using Nord Stream 2 would be some kind of defeat. Russia has no interest in keeping Nord Stream 1 alive.
I do not really see any big difference if NordStream 1 or 2 is used. Both have almost the same trajectory. I suppose that from a russian point of view the plan was to increase capacities so to be able to turn off the pipeline crossing Ucraine and Poland.
So keeping just 1 of 4 pipes working wont help much.

But admittedly, I am not sure if the Russians are acting in way that sounds reasonable to me.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus In Germany's case, the deed is already done. On February 22, 2022 (after Russia sent military forces into parts of two Ukraine provinces it had just recognized as independent states, but before Vlad the Insane ordered the Special Military Disaster to commence), Germany's Chancellor declared that Nord Stream 2 "cannot go forward." OK - withholding approval merely slammed on the brakes. Even so, Gazprom's Swiss subsidiary which owns Nord Stream 2, filed for bankruptcy within about a week. And the reason for not proceeding with the project? Being overly dependent on Russian energy is not in Germany's national security interest. That is an explicit German interest in at least abandoning the project. Germany has subsequently committed to replacing all Russian energy sources by summer of 2024. So it seems to me that Germany has already destroyed its investment in Nord Stream 2. At least until Russia has to sue for peace...
I agree that the German government has understood now that it is not in Germany's national security interest to be too dependent on Russian oil, gas or whatever.
And as you say, this means the project is mostly dead. But if it's dead already politically, I don't see a reason for them to destroy it physically, too.

I'ld rather believe that an economical profiteur of the current situation would want to ensure his benefits.

Last fiddled with by Till on 2022-10-05 at 15:19

2022-10-05, 23:44   #446
Dr Sardonicus

Feb 2017
Nowhere

622610 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Till And as you say, this means the project is mostly dead. But if it's dead already politically, I don't see a reason for them to destroy it physically, too.
Neither do I. Plus, not doing it means not getting caught :)

2022-10-06, 10:44   #447
kruoli

"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE

1,327 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Till I do not really see any big difference if NordStream 1 or 2 is used.
Practically speaking, this is most likely true, but politically speaking, it would be devastating if we (Germany) now allow Russia to send the gas (which would have been transmitted via Nord Stream 1) via Nord Stream 2 after our politicians made it point-blank that Nord Stream 2 will not be used.

 2022-10-06, 13:36 #448 Dr Sardonicus     Feb 2017 Nowhere 2×11×283 Posts Russian propagandists have been reporting online in the most ludicrous fashion during recent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv and Kherson. The formula is like this: Code: We've lured them into a [trap] [fire pocket]! We're mowing them down with machine guns! We're slaughtering them in droves! But - they're getting back up after being shot! They're [hopped up on the zombie drug krokodil] [zombies] [drugged zombies]! They are unstoppable killing machines! [....] Our forces are retreating to more advantageous positions.
 2022-10-08, 16:17 #449 Dr Sardonicus     Feb 2017 Nowhere 141228 Posts Vlad the Insane got a belated birthday present. There was a huge fireworks display on the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. One! Two! three!
 2022-10-08, 17:54 #450 kriesel     "TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17" Mar 2017 US midwest 2·29·127 Posts
2022-10-08, 18:37   #451
Uncwilly
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