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Old 2020-06-11, 23:36   #914
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
"Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+T cells in ~40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating "common cold" coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."
To be published as 'Grifoni et al, 2020, Cell 181, 1-13" June 25, 2020

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf
So we can expect similar levels of "catching a cold this year protects you against catching one next year"-ness - meaning not very much at all - for cold-related coronavirii and SARS-CoV-2?

Related:

Dissecting antibody-mediated protection against SARS-CoV-2 | Nature: “[P]opulation level studies show that most individuals who recover develop only low levels of neutralizing antibodies, indicating that neutralizing antibodies are likely to have a relatively limited impact on resolving disease.”
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Old 2020-06-12, 22:06   #915
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The Abrupt, Radical Reversal in How Public Health Experts Now Speak About the Coronavirus and Mass Gatherings | Glenn Greenwald, The Intercept
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Old 2020-06-13, 22:28   #916
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So the USA may reclaim a very undesirable leading death rate from Brazil.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=bra&areas=mex&areas=ind&areas=chl&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
In addition to those highlighted by the link, Iraq is also ramping steeply up, from a lower rate.
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Old 2020-06-14, 01:16   #917
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
The blood donors group that I am a part of have been talking about that for a while.
But something about your statement confuses me. ABO blood typing along with Rh factor breaks down to:

A+, B+, AB+, O+, A-, B-, AB-, O-

There is not an AB0 in common terms. AB- would be used normally for those that are Rh negative.
If I read correctly, my O+ type is more resistant to Covid-19 than others. Not that I'm going to go out partying in packed, shouting-at-each-other venues. Not that I did, anyway, for decades. I make the supply runs. Dan sometimes is not outside for two or three days. He laments how out of shape he is. I could do us both good by pushing for walks.
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Old 2020-06-14, 17:01   #918
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kladner View Post
If I read correctly, my O+ type is more resistant to Covid-19 than others. Not that I'm going to go out partying in packed, shouting-at-each-other venues. Not that I did, anyway, for decades. I make the supply runs. Dan sometimes is not outside for two or three days. He laments how out of shape he is. I could do us both good by pushing for walks.

Indeed.
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Old 2020-06-15, 00:06   #919
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Closing up time: Reflections on illness, history and family | Rozalind Dineen, Times Literary Supplement

Wonderful writing.
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Old 2020-06-15, 03:31   #920
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Covering you mouth helps stop the spread, who knew? [Emphasis in the body mine]
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../10/2009637117
Quote:
Significance
We have elucidated the transmission pathways of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in the three epicenters. Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
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Old 2020-06-15, 22:10   #921
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o FDA withdraws emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine | The Hill: “The agency said recent clinical trial failures mean chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine may not be effective to treat COVID-19, and that their potential benefits do not outweigh the risks.”

o Beijing battles ‘explosive coronavirus outbreak’ as food market cases mount | South China Morning Post --
One of NC's commenters from Asia adds: "Bizarrely, the semi-official line seems to be that the Beijing outbreak originated from contaminated salmon from Norway. More worryingly, there seems to be a lot of buzz on Chinese social media that the danger now is from Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi students and workers coming to China (there aren’t very many of them, but they seem a convenient scapegoat). Or put another way, the government is determined to blame all future flare ups on foreigners, however unlikely that may be."

That wholesale market is huge – article said ~70% of its workers had been tested so far, of the roughly 10,000 workers total. Alas, the article failed to provide one crucial piece of information – whether mask wearing was mandatory at the market, for both workers and customers.
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Old 2020-06-17, 20:17   #922
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The Masks Masquerade: Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering | Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Medium
Quote:
SIX ERRORS: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you; it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).

In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.
Taleb is clearly not a fan of the major public-health bureaucracies:
Quote:
First Error: Missing the Compounding Effect

People who are good at exams (and become bureaucrats, economists, or hacks), my experience has been, are not good at understanding nonlinearities and dynamics.

The WHO, CDC and other bureaucracies initially failed to quickly realize that the benefits of masks compound, simply because two people are wearing them and you have to look at the interaction.

Let us say (to simplify) that masks reduce both transmission and reception to p. What effect on the R0(that is, the rate of spreading of the infection)?

Simply the naive approach (used by the CDC/WHO bureaucrats and other imbeciles) is to say if masks reduce the transmission probability to ¼, one would think it would then drop from, say R0= 5, to R0=1 ¼. Yuuge, but there is better.

For one should count both sides. Under our simplification, with p=1/4 we get R0′= p² R0 . The drop in R becomes 93.75%! You divide R by 16! Even with masks working at 50% we get a 75% drop in R0.

Last fiddled with by ewmayer on 2020-06-17 at 20:17
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Old 2020-06-18, 08:08   #923
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The second last remaining country with a significant population. Turkmenistan, that tried so hard to hide the real situation, has finally reached a point of no return and is set to leave just NK as the sole major population country still denying any existence of CV19.
Quote:
Sources close to health authorities told RFE/RL on June 15 that medical personnel at the Infection Hospital in Ashgabat had not been allowed to leave the facility for days and were barred from using phones.

...

A hospital employee told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity that the medical institution was overwhelmed with patients with pneumonia, including people in grave condition, some of whom had died.

Sources close to local health authorities in the capital of the eastern Lebap province, Turkmenabat, told RFE/RL on June 15 that a major hospital in the city had been locked down as well after a coronavirus test of one nurse came positive for the second time.
https://www.rferl.org/a/covid-region.../30673830.html
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Old 2020-06-18, 19:04   #924
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When will things get back to normal? 511 epidemiologists weigh in.
Fancy graphic https://www.visualcapitalist.com/lif...rmal-covid-19/
Longer form original article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ronavirus.html

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2020-06-18 at 19:07
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