20210314, 01:11  #562  
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
3^{2}×5×103 Posts 
Quote:
I think the current stats being close to even are at least partly because GIMPS does a good job determining when and how to do TF vs P1. If the TF/P1 balance gets too much out of whack this will no longer hold. Keep in mind how much faster GPUs are at TF than CPUs or even GPUs are at P1. My personal example: I have a 2080Ti GPU running on an i77820x 8core CPU. So if 1 TF factor is found each 200 GhzDays my GPU will find about 24 per day. If 1 P1 factor is found each 200 GhzDays my CPU will find 1 factor each 2 days. Remember that with each successive bit level the TF work doubles while the odds of finding a factor is almost the same; approximately 1/(bit_level+1). However, the expected TF success rate will decrease a little if extra P1 (or ECM) work has been done; because P1/ECM will find some factors that the applied TF bit level would find. As far as I know there does not exist a calculator here that can calculate the expected TF success rate taking into count how much P1/ECM has been done. For the same reason, the more TF that has been done before P1, the lower the odds of P1 finding a factor. This estimates that quite well: https://www.mersenne.ca/prob.php. The P1 work required for a desired success rate increases rapidly. For example, using 35000001 with 74 TF bits. 2% 0.50 GhzDays 3% 1.30 4% 3.03 5% 6.36 6% 12.54 

20210316, 10:34  #563 
"Seth"
Apr 2019
273_{10} Posts 
I really appreciate the "ECM Summary" which gives a quick sense of the ECM work that's been complete. Would you consider
1. Adding an "ECM Summary" summary row This could be as simple as "X total GHz Days" It could also potentially include an estimated percentage of tXX completed (I'm happy to write some code if that would help out) 2. For exponents with lots of ECM rows filtering B1/B2 pairs with only a single ECM curves and GHz Days < 1. 
20210316, 11:56  #564  
"James Heinrich"
May 2004
exNorthern Ontario
6440_{8} Posts 
Quote:


20210316, 17:18  #565 
"Viliam FurÃk"
Jul 2018
Martin, Slovakia
457 Posts 
petrw1 > I wasn't talking about a factor being found for the given exponent by P1 vs. TF, but about the amount of work needed to find a given factor. I don't think these are the same things.
For example, those factors which are ksmooth can be found by P1 using less GHzD, than by TF, as they are often of higher bitsize. If the factor is easier to find by TF than P1, that means it's a relatively small factor with big factors of k. My "conjecture" is that the ratio of the counts of factors being easier to find by TF and factors found by P1 is about 1:1, maybe even tends to 1:1 as exponent goes to the infinity. Probably not true, but it seems close enough. 
20210316, 17:46  #566  
"James Heinrich"
May 2004
exNorthern Ontario
2^{5}·3·5·7 Posts 
Quote:
More specifically for part 2: I'm currently displaying any B1/B2 pairs that either have a total effort of >1.0GHzdays, or at least 10 curves run at those bounds. That still leaves a number of single curves run at "oddball" bounds (but with nontrivial effort), and a number of curves of trivial effort but >10 curves run. Let me know if you think the filtering criteria should be adjusted. When you have some sample code for calculating tlevel that I can emulate, I can add that value in as well. 

20210316, 23:45  #567  
"Seth"
Apr 2019
3×7×13 Posts 
Quote:
"123456 654321000 2 0.002" and "1000 10000 1 2.40618e7" which I believe would be filtered by your proposed change. 

20210316, 23:51  #568 
"James Heinrich"
May 2004
exNorthern Ontario
2^{5}×3×5×7 Posts 

20210317, 00:39  #569  
"Seth"
Apr 2019
3·7·13 Posts 
Quote:
I wrote some simple starting code for estimating factoring progress, I used the numbers from ecm progress report and I imagine the UI could look similar (see attachment). @VBCurtis couple of questions you could help out with 1. Why is it called tXX? 2. The number of expected curves to find a t50 factor with a set B1/B2 is independent of size of N correct? AKA I can calculate B1/B2 > expected curves and use that value for all exponents? 3. Do I need to change any of the ECM math given Mersenne cofactors have a certain form? 4. Is this methodology generally sound? Code:
# (B1, B2, expected_curves to find a t35 factor) expected_curves = [(11e3, 11e5, 3495192), (11e3, 11e8, 374814), ..., (1e6, 100e6, 1566), (1e6, 900e6, 957), ...] # t35 progress for 50 curves of 30e6,450e6 without info on this exact B1,B2 pair can be estimated by min_curves_needed = min(count for b1, b2, count in expected_curves if b1 < 30e6 and b2 < 450e6) progress = 50 / min_curves_needed Last fiddled with by SethTro on 20210317 at 00:39 

20210317, 03:14  #570  
"Curtis"
Feb 2005
Riverside, CA
4781_{10} Posts 
Quote:
1. T45 = one "expects" in the probability sense to find a 45digit factor in that number of trials. 1/e of the factors of that size will be missed with a T45, but one should move up to larger bounds by this time anyway. I don't know what the T stands for tested? 2. Correct number of curves does not change with input size. Time for each curve does, but of course we don't care about that when estimating work done. 3. No, I don't think any of the curvecount math changes for ECM on Mersennes. 4. If you have a copy of GMPECM, I'd invoke that with a toy input, the B1 and B2 values, and the v flag to get output of number of curves at that size to complete a Tlevel. You may be able to pull the calculation from the GMPECM source, actually. If grabbing the curvecount code is not tenable, I suggest building a table of a range of B1 / B2 manually. Unfortunately, GMPECM won't use exactly B2 = 100* B1 since it uses an entirely different stage 2, so this many not work for common P95 choices. Hope this helps! 

20210317, 06:41  #571  
Romulan Interpreter
Jun 2011
Thailand
24E5_{16} Posts 
Quote:
Good job! 

20210317, 07:04  #572 
Romulan Interpreter
Jun 2011
Thailand
10010011100101_{2} Posts 
re ECM calculation, I remember somebody in the past (Alex Kruppa?) did similar calculation, which was posted on the forum. Yafu source code (Ben^{2}?) could help too (including with where the tXX terminology comes from, there was a discussion about it here too, when it was implemented in Yafu  possibly in Yafurelated threads?).
Right now I am quite busy at job, but I am laughing thinking that if RDS would have been still lurking around, he would have immediately sent us to read HIS book (which, to be fair, contains all sort of things related to this calculation too). Last fiddled with by LaurV on 20210317 at 07:06 
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