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Old 2016-01-13, 00:37   #1
Uncwilly
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Default Predict M50

With M49 all but certain, here is the new thread for guessing M50.
Based upon previous rules.

THE RULES OF THE GAME:
  1. Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
  2. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
  3. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed.
  4. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
  5. You may post 3 guesses. If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test, you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same for date predictions.
  6. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M50 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating).
    I ask the moderators to lock this thread when M50 is reported.
  7. The discoverer of M50 will have all guesses posted more than 2 days after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime, are hereby disqualified.
  8. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2016-01-13 at 00:39
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Old 2016-01-13, 01:07   #2
Dubslow
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Much stricter, eh?
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Old 2016-01-13, 03:40   #3
LaurV
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M50 has already been found. However, you are still allowed to try predicting M49...

Edit: and I like point 8, restoring itself...

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2016-01-13 at 03:41
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Old 2016-01-14, 16:47   #4
firejuggler
 
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Apr 2010
Over the rainbow

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predicting M85,650,113 for M50 if there is none between M48 and the newly discovered M49 and
M67,750,363 if there is. as for the date... 3 january 2019.
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Old 2016-01-14, 18:31   #5
petrw1
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"Wayne"
Nov 2006
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87654349

2017-12-31
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Old 2016-01-14, 18:42   #6
Batalov
 
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Mar 2008
Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2

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110691517
6-19-2019
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Old 2016-01-14, 18:52   #7
R. Gerbicz
 
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"Robert Gerbicz"
Oct 2005
Hungary

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57885161
2013-01-25
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Old 2016-01-14, 19:13   #8
davar55
 
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I can't predict M50 until M49* is revealed,
but I do predict that there's only one MP
exponent between 60M and 100M, and I
predict that there are an infinity of MPs,
so M50 > 100M. I think M51 > 190M.

So is P95 going to be able to search that high or not?
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Old 2016-01-14, 19:32   #9
petrw1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davar55 View Post
So is P95 going to be able to search that high or not?
I believe it is capable up to almost 600M
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Old 2016-01-14, 19:45   #10
davar55
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petrw1 View Post
I believe it is capable up to almost 600M
Oh cool so we still might find a few more in a few years
before we (generic we) have to update to a P2020 program?
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Old 2016-01-19, 18:11   #11
Uncwilly
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My first guess:

79,399,909 on the day before Valentines day 2017 (a gift to us).
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