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Old 2021-09-17, 16:47   #1453
retina
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Vaccinations don't save lives. They extend lives. [On average, YMMV] But by how much is the extension? Why does no one ever say? It is all just "more", which is vague. Is it by just a month (on average)? More than a month? Less?

Once we have the terminology correct, and stop using the deceptive "save", and we know the un-vague numbers, then we can rationally ask ourselves: Is the cost worth it? Overall, or just for some? Do we get more back from the extension, than we lose from some alternative?

I don't know the answer. But I do think that the automatic knee-jerk reaction that all lives must be extended, at any cost (because that's what folks do or something), is not correct. We can do mathematics here, so we can figure out the numbers that suit our desires and needs, based upon our own formulae. Sometimes the best answer is to do nothing different.

Last fiddled with by retina on 2021-09-17 at 17:06
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Old 2021-09-17, 17:04   #1454
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Good discussion.
Given x available doses annually, and for most vaccines 2 (or 3 with booster included) needed per person vaccinated, and x << 2 times global human population y, what is the most effective strategy for distributing scarce vaccine in the next few months?
What's the measure for "effective":
minimum number of deaths attributed to covid, or hospitalizations, or cases; maximum life extension in person-months; something else; a somehow weighted combination of several considerations?
I think what's been done was a reasonable approximation of the most effective practical within technical and political constraints, and almost certainly suboptimal somehow. Waiting to better determine first what would be more optimal, would have been substantially more suboptimal.

Also in the Forbes article: "Health care workers came in the middle of the pack, with 17% unwilling to be vaccinated and 68% reporting having received at least one vaccine." If one in 6 health care workers are unconvinced of the value of vaccination, why is that? What's the general population to make of that high rate of refusal in the health care community?

Doctors die differently. Few want CPR or other extensive measures taken.

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Old 2021-09-17, 18:55   #1455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
....
+1

A rational analysis.

FWIW, I strongly recommend vaccination against CV19 and was vaccinated myself at the earliest opportunity

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Old 2021-09-17, 22:18   #1456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
Vaccinations don't save lives. They extend lives. [On average, YMMV] But by how much is the extension? Why does no one ever say?
That requires good data, and math. Journalists are not known for good math skills. Or, too often, even the ability to recognize or communicate data accurately. https://journalistsresource.org/medi...pen-your-mind/ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/what-...like_b_4386621
I suppose the final data won't be in until the entire current population dies. Let's wait a long time for complete data.

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Old 2021-09-17, 22:35   #1457
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
None of the following should be mistaken as an antivax position. It is a position in favor of rational independent decision making.
+1 also. Very rational.

To share some data points from my own set... My own mother is an extremely rational person. Within her domains of education.

For reasons I won't go into, she has decided she won't take the risk of getting vaccinated.

She understands the ramifications of this decision. And I personally agree with her decision, having discussed this at some length with her.

But... I would argue that medical considerations should be the only reason one does not accept "the jab". I personally won't physically interact (in "meat-space") with those who have not been fully vaccinated (lots of Zoom).

IMHO... Like all things, Libertarian thinking can be taken too far. Ayn Rand's "prior art" was a painful read.

Last fiddled with by chalsall on 2021-09-17 at 22:45 Reason: s/her domain/her domains/; # Language is important. And not blowing sunshine, but Momzie is very well read.
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Old 2021-09-18, 02:41   #1458
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Vaccines "save lives" in the commonly-used sense of "save" meaning to rescue or deliver from danger - here, the danger of becoming seriously ill or dying from whatever disease the vaccine protects against. Effective preventive vaccines "save lives" in the same sense that seat belts or bicycle helmets "save lives." The terms "extending life" or "prolonging life," though, often refer to supportive treatments that are neither preventive nor curative, but alleviate symptoms or support body functions enough in terminally ill patients, to prolong the time it takes their conditions to kill them.

That said, the question of whether and for whom vaccination for COVID-19 is "worth the cost" is a good one. IMO it depends on a lot more than how long an individual person's life might be "extended" by avoiding a serious case of COVID-19. Might it be "worth it" if a high vaccination rate means hospital systems won't have to adopt "crisis standards of care" due to ICUs and ERs being swamped with COVID patients?

From what I've read about "vaccine hesitancy" in health care workers, the most common reason given is concerns about the vaccine's safety or "side effects." Apart from the fact that COVID vaccines were developed with extraordinary speed, it is not clear to me on what these concerns are based. It might be informative to see how the refusal rate varies with age, gender, education level, and pay level of the various types of "health care worker."

On the other hand, there has for some years now been a major problem with health care workers quitting due to being overworked, underpaid, or badly treated by hospital administrators. The COVID-19 pandemic has made this situation worse by adding crushing levels of stress.

I have heard that a lot of corrections officers are also "vaccine hesitant," despite many jails and prisons being seething cauldrons of COVID. One reason I have heard given was distrust of prison administration.
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Old 2021-09-18, 15:13   #1459
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Back in April... Idaho Doctor Makes Baseless Claims About Safety of COVID-19 Vaccines
Quote:
<snip>
Since the pandemic began, however, politicized social media posts have featured doctors, some looking authoritative in white coats, spreading dubious claims about both vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. The most recent example in this misinformation niche is Dr. Ryan Cole, who owns a medical lab in Idaho.

Cole is featured in a video that has amassed more than a million views. He makes a variety of claims, some of which weโ€™ve addressed before.

Weโ€™ll address his four main claims.
  • Although there is no evidence to support this, Cole suggested that some of the COVID-19 vaccines could cause cancer or autoimmune diseases.
  • Again, without evidence, Cole suggested that the federal government withheld a treatment for COVID-19 in order to "vend" a vaccine.
  • Studies haven't proved that ivermectin is effective in treating COVID-19, but Cole claimed that federal agencies "have suppressed this life-saving medication."
  • Cole said public health officials should encourage people to take vitamin D supplements rather than wear masks or stay physically distant from others.
<snip>
We asked Cole to provide support for those claims, and he referred us to a 2018 paper published in the journal Nature Reviews Drug Discovery that reviewed trials and studies of various, earlier mRNA vaccines.

But that paper doesn't support his statement.

Norbert Pardi, a research assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, was the lead author of the paper. He told us in an email, "No publications demonstrate that mRNA vaccines cause cancer or autoimmune diseases."

Pardiโ€™s 19-page paper does make one passing reference to autoimmune diseases, which is what Cole highlighted to us.

The paper says: "A possible concern could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms induce potent type I interferon responses, which have been associated not only with inflammation but also potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken."

But, Pardi explained, he and the other researchers included that passage because they wanted to note some potential concerns. However, he emphasized that "no scientific evidence has confirmed that these concerns are real."

It's also worth noting that the paper predated the COVID-19 pandemic by two years, so it doesn't include any information specifically about the COVID-19 vaccines.

Simply put, "there is no scientific evidence that shows that mRNA vaccines cause autoimmune diseases," Pardi said. "Multiple clinical trials have been performed with mRNA vaccines in the past 10 years and none of them found that mRNA vaccination caused autoimmune diseases. Further, we are not aware of any studies showing an autoimmune disease appearing many months after vaccination as Dr. Cole inaccurately suggests."
And now he's on Idaho's Central District Health Board of Health...

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Old 2021-09-18, 17:14   #1460
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Driving a motorised vehicle provides a chance of immediate death. Everyone knows this, it isn't controversial.

So why do people still drive cars? You could die. OMFG the sky is falling! Reject all cars! Ban all cars! lol

If people want to believe vaccines are dangerous, or whatever, then they can always find a datum to support a claim that they cause harm. If you search you can find reports of people having bad reactions to vaccines. But that doesn't mean we don't need vaccines. Just like we still need cars even though we know, with certainty, that cars can cause death. The cost vs benefit analysis needs to be properly done. Even if a vaccine does cause cancer sometimes, that doesn't automatically mean we ban them. We look at the data, not a datum, and work through the calculations.
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Old 2021-09-18, 17:47   #1461
xilman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
We look at the data, not a datum, and work through the calculations.
Another famous dictum is The plural of anecdote is not data.

There appears to be a lot of anecdotal "evidence" swilling around. Sing along with me:
Just a spoonful of Chlorox helps the temperature go down, in a presidential way.

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Old 2021-09-18, 17:57   #1462
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And not all correlation is causation. A couple of years ago I had an allergic reaction to a lolly. If that had happened concurrently with me taking the jab the lolly would have been at fault not the vaccine. Food poisoning, a cold, etc. can cause a concurrent apparent "reaction" to the vaccine. The vaccine will get the blame, because that is the unusual item.
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Old 2021-09-18, 19:15   #1463
chalsall
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Hospital staff must swear off Tylenol, Tums to get religious vaccine exemption.

A brilliant example of the application of logic.
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