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20210712, 13:41  #23 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{4}×3×139 Posts 
Basis of estimate
Here is a screen capture of the LibreOffice formulas and input data used to compute the Oct 7 estimate.
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210712 at 13:42 
20210811, 16:58  #24 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
15020_{8} Posts 
From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 20210811 16:15:11 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210811 at 17:02 
20210817, 09:34  #25 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
445_{10} Posts 

20210821, 14:24  #26 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
15020_{8} Posts 
An alternate way of estimating DC completion to Mp#48*
This is practical when the number of remaining exponents below a milestone is < ~200.
Go to https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...tf=1&exfirst=1 Then sort by estimated completion date. Then from the end of the list, latest estimated completion, consider that those with expiration date sooner than ETA will be reassigned if not completed before expiration. Find the latest such expiration by moving back up the list from the end. At the moment that's 57864227, 25 days from now. There are currently 107 left below Mp#48*. So that will be a Cat 0 DC upon expiration. Cat 0 typically will complete within 7 days of assignment. (I expect reassignment to be swift, therefore negligible.) So this initial approach predicts completion to Mp#48* by 25 + 7 = 32 days from 20210821; by 20210921. Next, review the list for others that expire later than that, not currently updating. There are a few now up to 34 days and showing no current updating. These will add up to 34  25 = 9 more days to the estimate, or ~ 20210930, assuming no further updating or completion occurs before expiration. There are a few with expiration dates further out, but these are currently updating. Except for https://www.mersenne.org/M57817769 which last updated 20210819 and has 35 days remaining. Corresponding to reaching Mp#48* by ~ 20211001. That is very close to the 20211007 date estimated in June, 20211005 estimated 11 August, or 20211004 estimated 21 August, that were based on the 56M milestone trajectory and remaining # of exponents to Mp#48* versus date/time. I believe the method of relying for projection fitting on the lowest unverified exponent over time is using an inferior metric, both because in a sense it depends at any point in time upon only a single exponent's state, and because those are consistently exceptional, laggard exponents. It does not reflect the progress made upon the many other exponents that also must be cleared to reach a milestone. In the extreme case, the lowest unverified exponent could remain fixed for its entire expiration period, up to ~60 days before completion or reassignment, if it is assigned as a cat 1 DC as part of a group of >200 remaining, to a system that begins it and then ceases transmitting updates or making sufficient progress, until it is the last remaining below the milestone. Unlikely, but possible. From https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/ Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 20210821 14:15:08 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210821 at 14:38 
20210822, 13:58  #27 
Feb 2017
Nowhere
5904_{10} Posts 
I took a whack at estimating when the exponents up to 57885161 would all be doublechecked in this March 31, 2019 post. My guess, based on simple extrapolation of thencurrent progress, was about two and a half years from then. The responses (thanks to all!) [and which you can see by clicking on Newer milestone thread at top right of the single post view] indicated that my guess was not unreasonable.
One thing that has changed since then is that firsttime LL testing is no longer routine. Instead, PRP testing which can be verified relatively cheaply is the order of the day. 
20210822, 14:52  #28  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{4}·3·139 Posts 
Quote:
(This reminds me of a combustion model discussed decades ago in one of my advanced engineering classes. It incorporated so many independent simplifying assumptions, over two dozen. that their errors canceled well and it was quite accurate in most cases.) PRP first testing began at p~75.5M so was not a factor in reaching 57885161 in first tests. PRP/GEC/proof can be used in place of LL DC and essentially eliminates the possibility of need for TC then. That favors earlier completion dates for DC to 57885161. TC would probably add only a few days to completion date. From https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...postcount=3072 posted 2 April 2019: "I expect that ll tests below 47 mio will be verified on 21 April 2019 ±45 days 48 mio  on 19 July 2019 ±45 days 49 mio  on 14 October 2019 ±45 days 50 mio  on 07 January 2020 ±45 days." Actual milestone dates: 47 20190407 14 days 48 20190905 +49 days 49 20191119 +36 days 50 20200223 +47 days ±45 days (~95% confidence) indeed. Although it didn't make much sense applying 45 days to 21 April 2019 in a 2 April 2019 post. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210822 at 15:16 

20210825, 14:56  #29  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
5·89 Posts 
Quote:
And, it seems, this is even my very first post, which I made, when I still did not fully understand where I ended up :) 

20210826, 14:54  #30 
"University student"
May 2021
Beijing, China
2×7×19 Posts 
All exponent below 57M have been verified.
I predict that we'll finish the verification of M57885161 in about a month, probably before 20211001. 
20210826, 18:25  #31 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
5·89 Posts 
I will correct my last prediction regarding All tests below M57885161 by 6 days,
from (November 22, 2021) to (November 16, 2021) ±25 days (50% probability tube). Acceleration of All tests verification has been observed since August 19. If it stays at the current level, then there are chances that the kriesel's prediction regarding October 6 will turn out to be correct. 
20210908, 17:07  #32 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{4}×3×139 Posts 
History extrapolation from 56M method: currently indicating ~20210925 (which inherently includes allowance for number of exponents/day completing declining over time)
Alternate method update: part one, of those exponents currently updating server, and not indicating expiration before estimated completion, latest estimated completion is 20210920; part two, laggards not currently updating, likely to expire, latest expiration date 18 days = Sep 26, + ~7 days for reassign & complete = 20211003. Completion is expected by about the later of the two parts' date estimates, 20211003. Chun sung soo has 9 not updating out of 32 remaining. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210908 at 17:33 
20210909, 08:33  #33 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
5×89 Posts 
What we have at the moment.
I'm still sticking to my early prediction – November 16, 2021 ±25 days. Maybe I will slightly correct it, but later, when I will more reliably understand the microtrend within the macrotrend. 
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