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Old 2020-04-22, 20:48   #1
carpetpool
 
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Post When will a COVID-19 vaccine be out?

With the world in scramble to finding a vaccine to put a halt to the coronavirus pandemic, and countries suffering for months... here seem to be the most optimistic of results:

With over 70 vaccine candidates, experts are still warning people that vaccines might be 12-18 months away... but now in April (at the time of writing this), that could mean 11-17 months away. Some vaccines started in January and February (when China was facing this pandemic), so their 12-18 month timeline already started, and thus, those vaccines might have 9-15 more months to go.

An experimental vaccine currently underway and going to being tested and conducted by Oxford, in the U.K. If successful, some million or so doses would be available by September. That probably doesn't mean that vaccines will be available for everyone in September. Likely, health care workers and other professionals could be getting vaccinated by September. More vaccines especially hundreds of millions, or billions could be at least 2-4 months after that, meaning a large population in certain countries (such as in Europe, Americas or Asia), could be getting vaccines as early as November this year, possibly longer (maybe January). This seems like a short timespan, and way ahead of the 12-18 month estimate for a vaccine.

One, Oxford's vaccine project started in January (can't find the exact source for it, but I recall reading it somewhere), so if vaccines were out and available to most of the general public by January 2021, that would be roughly 12 months since the vaccine project first started, barely agreeing with the experts' 12-18 month estimation. It could be 10 or 11 months if these were accessible by November or December this year, which seems to be the most optimistic bet.

Also, another thing to consider, many other vaccines will be available early next year, even if this one doesn't work. And even if this vaccine proves to be successful (we sure hope it does!), there might be other vaccines in the future, which might be more effective. So there could be potential vaccines available this year, like the one in Oxford, that are just "gateways" to ending the pandemic, and could potentially buy us time --- maybe several months, until another vaccine might prove to be more successful (say, has effects, for up to a year or two, instead of three or four months).

To think about it in perspective, let's suppose you've been running a marathon. At some point during the race, you need a quick water break, so you drink a small water bottle, which might help you run some distance, but not enough to finish the race. So when you are thirsty again, you find larger water bottles, which say, give you enough energy to finish the race.

This is optimistically, how our pandemic could end quickly, while being in fair agreement with some experts. Until then, social distancing measures may not need to be as restricting as they are now, but there should be at least some measures in .

Until a vaccine, we should be able to resume about 75% of our normal activity (if all goes well), meaning right before a vaccine is approved, we might see:

- People Visiting friends

- Vacations (with a few friends or family only)

- People will be able to go to work again, (those who have not lost their jobs) with fewer virtual meetings, or more in-person meetings with less people.

- Most shops, businesses, (malls, restaurants, gyms, museums, parks, etc.) open with few restrictions (possibly with stricter capacity limits, less opening hours, more cleaning hours, some social distancing between strangers and or staff), kind of like how essential stores are operating right now.

- Schools and colleges might restart normally, without any social distancing measures among healthy children, teens, and young adults (but possibly among students and professors), with say, 90% of in-person class time being online.

- Small Day cares, and babysitters, possibly open with faculty comprised of mainly young adults).

- All Outdoor activities can be resumed (no tours, or large events however)

What likely may not be resumed until a vaccine:

- Larger parties and events with fans or audience such as summer camps, concerts, reality TV shows, host shows, fans at sports games, meet and greets, competitions, festivals, weddings, funerals, etc. Some of these may resume before a vaccine, with the elimination of many people, guests, or fans and extreme social distancing measures, and effective testing.


Hopefully, this gives insight to people here that this pandemic, may not be as bad as everyone is treating it right now. Any comments, thoughts, suggestions, remarks, please let me know!
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Old 2020-04-22, 22:08   #2
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If a vaccine is 12-18 month away then it will be too late to be meaningful. Herd immunity will kick in well before that.

But basically all your speculations, and all my speculations, are based upon incomplete data. We don't know what will happen. We have no experience to call upon.

If enough people speculate then by simple statistics someone will be "right" and be judged as a genius. But in reality it is just the same as buying a lottery ticket, someone wins but that doesn't mean they knew which ticket to buy. It is just pure luck.
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Old 2020-04-22, 22:39   #3
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Old 2020-04-22, 22:57   #4
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Interestingly, there is an unpublished report that connects listening to the far right media to increased covid deaths.

I find it interesting that the party that is "pro-life" doesn't really care about the life of:
  • prisoners
  • the elderly
  • people with co-morbid conditions

[sarcasm]I'm surprised that they haven't bumped defense spending.[/sarcasm]
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Old 2020-04-22, 23:32   #5
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Keep on topic. General COVID posts will get moved.
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Old 2020-04-22, 23:48   #6
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Part of the 12-18 month figure for a vaccine is production time. The influenza vaccine is started long before the season for that reason. I remember reading about an alternative vaccine, Flublok, that was developed primarily to address the problem of severe allergy to chicken eggs. It uses insect eggs. They also found that it can be produces much faster, which could be a real advantage for Covid ( IF it even works for Covid ). There could be a problem with the infrastructure that produces egg vaccines to try to switch to alternatives also.
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Old 2020-04-26, 22:53   #7
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It won't, trying to target a flu virus (this is simply a variant) is a pointless exercise like trying to nail jelly to the wall.

Let's imagine in some fantasy land they get a vaccine out before flu season comes around again in Oct-Nov, the virus mutates and then what?

Lock everyone up for another 6 months and totally destroy the world economy for multiple generations?

This virus is never going away, virii don't, they just mutate and carry on...and I for one refuse to live my life cowering in fear just because some government idiot tells me to.
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Old 2020-04-26, 23:23   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
It won't, trying to target a flu virus (this is simply a variant) is a pointless exercise like trying to nail jelly to the wall.

Let's imagine in some fantasy land they get a vaccine out before flu season comes around again in Oct-Nov, the virus mutates and then what?

Lock everyone up for another 6 months and totally destroy the world economy for multiple generations?

This virus is never going away, virii don't, they just mutate and carry on...and I for one refuse to live my life cowering in fear just because some government idiot tells me to.
It appears that you accept that you might catch the virus and die from it. That is your choice. Are you willing to catch the virus and pass it on to someone else who could die from it? Whom would be to blame for that?
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Old 2020-04-26, 23:46   #9
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Considering that there are questions, based on preliminary studies, as to the degree and persistence of immunity for those who have had the virus, vaccine development may be more difficult and prolonged.
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Old 2020-04-26, 23:46   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogue View Post
It appears that you accept that you might catch the virus and die from it. That is your choice. Are you willing to catch the virus and pass it on to someone else who could die from it? Whom would be to blame for that?
Please also fill out a DNR order, carry it with you and when you can get to the tattoo parlor, get "DNR, see wallet card" over your heart. In the DNR order also note that you will refuse the use of a ventilator if there is a shortage. Make sure that family members know that you are DNR and refuse supportive treatment for COVID.
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Old 2020-04-27, 00:00   #11
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(Disclaimer: below, a clearly rough and imprecise version of what is actually happening in epidemiological science and practical medicine; I am not an expert in those.)

"Nail jelly to the wall" is a very good analogy.

There is a catch-22 in mutation rate estimations before the initial intervention (vaccine, drugs) is prepared and launched. As far as we know so far, it is fairly good news that COVID-19 belongs to a family of viruses that do not mutate often (or another way of saying the same is that its repair is good). So your chance of preparing a vaccine faster than it changes are pretty good. Initial vaccine will be effective!

Some other viruses have been around for long enough that they have been deliberately bombarded with vaccines; then the following happens: healthy and conservative version of the virus is nearly eradicated but the broken version of it that is like a 'cancer' version of itself (with high self-mutation rate plus with poor repair control) survives. Then it will start to mix and match itself at 10-100x times initial rate giving rise to a pool of nearly new, never seen by immune system viruses all the time.

So, catch-22: if we don't touch the virus, its evolution will continue to be slow. If we put pressure on it, we will weed the weak forms out and will accelerate its evolution rate. Then we will continue making updated vaccines seasonally, and it will join the family of seasonal viruses. You are damned if you do, and you are damned if you don't.
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