4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006.

lukethomas · 2006-10-20, 11:52

4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006.

Animal agitation level peaked on the 15th of October. Note; Animal behaviour is the most extreme 6 days before an earthquake occurs, so the 21st would be the best day for the quake to happen.

Light 4.0-4.9 Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely.

More info.
www.quakeprediction.com
http://www.quakeprediction.com

lukethomas · 2006-10-20, 19:53

4.5 earthquake hits 75 miles N of San Francisco

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/.../nc40190077.htm

A light earthquake occurred at 10:00:08 AM (PDT) on Friday, October 20, 2006. The magnitude 4.5 event occurred 7 km (4 miles) WNW of Cobb, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 4 km ( 3 miles).

http://www.quakeprediction.com

retina · 2006-10-21, 00:30

Looks to me the predictions posted on the link you give are not very good. No better than chance. I think any PRNG could come up with predictions of the same quality and accuracy.

But I am willing to hear the explination about how animal behaviour affects earthquakes? Alternatively, perhaps it suggests that animal behaviour is predicting earthquakes 6 days in advance?

cheesehead · 2006-10-24, 08:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by retina

But I am willing to hear the explination about how animal behaviour affects earthquakes? Alternatively, perhaps it suggests that animal behaviour is predicting earthquakes 6 days in advance?

The latter. AFAIK the main theory about this is that the animals are sensing very-low-frequency or -high-frequency vibrations generated within the rocks next to the fault as the stress on them approaches the breaking point, perhaps as small fissures crack open.

Spherical Cow · 2006-10-24, 22:37

If indeed it's actually happening (animal behavior predicting earthquakes), I think it's more likely that electromagnetic changes are being sensed than physical (seismic) vibrations. Geophysicists have been monitoring seismic activity long enough that a good precursor, or set of precursors, to significant earthquakes would probably have been noticed by now. Electromagnetic monitoring is more recent, and there is a lot of research left to do. One group making a serious effort is here:
http://www.quakefinder.com/

Norm

mfgoode · 2006-10-29, 15:54

Seismic vibrations can be monitored on the Richter Scale and are spread all over the globe with varying intensity.
Electromagnetic monitoring (EMM) is more local and confined to an area of the quake in a reasonable radius.
In abnormal behaviour of animals and birds, the birds brains are sensitive to EMM but animals and reptiles are sensitive to seismic vibrations- take snakes for instance. They pick up vibrations with their forked tongues.
Mally

michaf · 2006-11-01, 12:51

I know for a 'fact' that animals can detect earthquakes in advance.

We have had a bird (falconparakeet) (valkparkiet in Dutch, no idea if it translates well :) ) Which about 1.5 hour prior to a minor earthquake in southern Netherlands began to squeel for no apparent reason. For the whole 1.5 hours, until the quake began.

It has never done it before, and has never done it afterwards...

Uncwilly · 2006-11-01, 14:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaf

It has never done it before, and has never done it afterwards...

One data point? If you lived in New Zealand, Japan, the western US and Canada, parts of South America, etc. and this happen 25% of the time, then you have my interest.

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.

ewmayer · 2006-11-01, 15:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.

Yeah, Uncwilly's been through so many major quakes, when he orders pizza these days, he asks for "subducted crust."

mfgoode · 2006-11-01, 16:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

One data point? If you lived in New Zealand, Japan, the western US and Canada, parts of South America, etc. and this happen 25% of the time, then you have my interest.

Forgive me if I seem jaded, but I have personally experienced 2 6+, 1 5.7, and about another 10 5+.

:surprised
10.5 ? where and when?
Its one for the Guiness book of records.

Mally

TimSorbet · 2006-11-01, 16:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by mfgoode

:surprised
10.5 ? where and when?
Its one for the Guiness book of records.

Mally

Are you joking or was what he meant lost in translation? I believe he meant he's been in 10 seperate ~5 magnitude earthquakes.

2006-10-20, 11:52	#1
lukethomas Oct 2006 11₂ Posts	4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006. 4.0 to 4.5 quake expected in San Francisco area October 20-24 2006. Animal agitation level peaked on the 15th of October. Note; Animal behaviour is the most extreme 6 days before an earthquake occurs, so the 21st would be the best day for the quake to happen. Light 4.0-4.9 Noticeable shaking of indoor items, rattling noises. Significant damage unlikely. More info. www.quakeprediction.com http://www.quakeprediction.com

2006-10-20, 19:53	#2
lukethomas Oct 2006 3₈ Posts	4.5 earthquake hits 75 miles N of San Francisco 4.5 earthquake hits 75 miles N of San Francisco http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/.../nc40190077.htm A light earthquake occurred at 10:00:08 AM (PDT) on Friday, October 20, 2006. The magnitude 4.5 event occurred 7 km (4 miles) WNW of Cobb, CA. The hypocentral depth is 4 km ( 3 miles). http://www.quakeprediction.com

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2006-10-21, 00:30	#3
retina Undefined "The unspeakable one" Jun 2006 My evil lair 6685₁₀ Posts	Looks to me the predictions posted on the link you give are not very good. No better than chance. I think any PRNG could come up with predictions of the same quality and accuracy. But I am willing to hear the explination about how animal behaviour affects earthquakes? Alternatively, perhaps it suggests that animal behaviour is predicting earthquakes 6 days in advance?

2006-10-24, 22:37	#5
Spherical Cow Nov 2004 2²·3³·5 Posts	If indeed it's actually happening (animal behavior predicting earthquakes), I think it's more likely that electromagnetic changes are being sensed than physical (seismic) vibrations. Geophysicists have been monitoring seismic activity long enough that a good precursor, or set of precursors, to significant earthquakes would probably have been noticed by now. Electromagnetic monitoring is more recent, and there is a lot of research left to do. One group making a serious effort is here: http://www.quakefinder.com/ Norm

2006-10-29, 15:54	#6
mfgoode Bronze Medalist Jan 2004 Mumbai,India 2²×3³×19 Posts	Seismic vibrations can be monitored on the Richter Scale and are spread all over the globe with varying intensity. Electromagnetic monitoring (EMM) is more local and confined to an area of the quake in a reasonable radius. In abnormal behaviour of animals and birds, the birds brains are sensitive to EMM but animals and reptiles are sensitive to seismic vibrations- take snakes for instance. They pick up vibrations with their forked tongues. Mally

2006-11-01, 12:51	#7
michaf Jan 2005 479 Posts	I know for a 'fact' that animals can detect earthquakes in advance. We have had a bird (falconparakeet) (valkparkiet in Dutch, no idea if it translates well :) ) Which about 1.5 hour prior to a minor earthquake in southern Netherlands began to squeel for no apparent reason. For the whole 1.5 hours, until the quake began. It has never done it before, and has never done it afterwards...