Peak Oil

[The Carnivore]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

We have arrived (well like the Voyager probes arriving at the edge of the solar system):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/shell-says-its-oil-production-has-begun-a-long-term-decline

Shell's oil production may have peaked, but other companies or countries may have plans to increase production once the pandemic's effects start to wane.

Ultimately, oil production will peak eventually since it's a finite resource. When that happens is anyone's guess, but the only real long-term solution would be a global one-child or even no-child policy so that the decline in population matches the decline in oil output. Otherwise, you're looking at c. 18th century living standards when per-capita fossil fuel consumption was close to zero.

Increasing supply by drilling in ANWR and other remote areas, expanding fracking, and converting coal into oil will help a lot in the short term but will only postpone the inevitable if the world's population continues to increase. Although the resulting water & air pollution would not be pleasant, it would be preferable to a world where everyone would have to get around by foot, bike, sailboat, or horseback.

[retina]

Originally Posted by The Carnivore

Increasing supply by drilling in ANWR and other remote areas, expanding fracking, and converting coal into oil will help a lot in the short term but will only postpone the inevitable if the world's population continues to increase. Although the resulting water & air pollution would not be pleasant, it would be preferable to a world where everyone would have to get around by foot, bike, sailboat, or horseback.

So solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal, etc. don't exist in your future world?

Your solution to the future is to prefer pollution and sickness over healthy clean-air lifestyles?

Humans don't exist in isolation. They need other animals and plants around to survive. Polluting everything, because they are lazy to walk and "need" their cars, is a great way to make them extinct.

[The Carnivore]

Originally Posted by retina

So solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal, etc. don't exist in your future world?

Your solution to the future is to prefer pollution and sickness over healthy clean-air lifestyles?

Humans don't exist in isolation. They need other animals and plants around to survive. Polluting everything, because they are lazy to walk and "need" their cars, is a great way to make them extinct.

Passenger and cargo jets can't run off of solar, wind or nuclear power. Passenger cars might be able to, but only in very limited quantities. The lithium and rare earth elements needed for renewables and battery power aren't much more abundant than fossil fuels, and mining them also results in significant adverse environmental impacts:
https://www.ft.com/content/8f153358-...9-a5a6d0f2077f
https://e360.yale.edu/features/china...e-earth-mining

I've gone on numerous 10+ mile runs and hikes but consider myself very car dependent. Walking and biking everywhere isn't really practical during blizzards, in rural areas, when you're sick or injured, when you have to carry large or heavy loads, and so on.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by The Carnivore

Passenger and cargo jets can't run off of solar, wind or nuclear power. Passenger cars might be able to, but only in very limited quantities. The lithium and rare earth elements needed for renewables and battery power aren't much more abundant than fossil fuels, and mining them also results in significant adverse environmental impacts:

Passenger jets could run on nuclear power. Look up the "flying crowbar". People just choose not to use them. Right now there is work being done on passenger airflights that are battery powered (that is how you use solar or wind). There have been direct solar powered flights. I know someone that literally had a small part in one. Lithium is not that rare (neither are some "rare earths"). Tesla has purchased a mine that will last them quite a while. https://electrek.co/2020/09/23/tesla...-acres-nevada/
There was discussion that if the California High Speed Rail project were to bore tunnels from the Los Angeles area up into the desert, that there would be a large amount of lithium that would become available as a by-product.

Further, there is the possibility of using solar or wind to make hydrogen and have that be the power source for the big jets. How one transports the power does not have to be the method used to generate the power.

[retina]

Originally Posted by The Carnivore

I've gone on numerous 10+ mile runs and hikes but consider myself very car dependent. Walking and biking everywhere isn't really practical during blizzards, in rural areas, when you're sick or injured, when you have to carry large or heavy loads, and so on.

So you are unwilling to change the way you live, and prefer to poison the environment, to support your addiction to motorised transport? Doing "numerous 10+ mile runs and hikes" sounds more like an optional activity for you with the way you phrased it. If you used a lot of fuel to travel to places to do many of those hikes/runs then those would end up being a net negative for the environment. In which case, if true, you would have made the world worse for everyone, including yourself.

There is also this thing called planning. When blizzards happen then you plan for them. Then you don't need to randomly drive around in some oversized metal box just to get some milk.

When I see people drive significant distances to the gym to exercise I wonder to myself "WTF are they thinking?". The real world is a wonderful place, stop ignoring it and get out of the car and experience it. Some of the minions do that and I ask them why. All I get are excuses; it's not safe, it's too hot, it's too cold, it's embarrassing, it's too polluted, etc. That last one, it's too polluted, is a real kicker. Of course it is because all the idiots are driving to the gym and making the world worse.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by retina

All I get are excuses; it's not safe, it's too hot, it's too cold, it's embarrassing, it's too polluted, etc. That last one, it's too polluted, is a real kicker. Of course it is because all the idiots are driving to the gym and making the world worse.

How many tonnes of CO₂ did it take to make that building, furnish/equip it, light
it (and run the video and sound), heat/cool it, deal with the waste, and do the employees then generate on their own. Go for a walk or run, do yard work, wash your clothes manually in a tub, etc.

[LaurV]

Originally Posted by retina

When I see people drive significant distances to the gym to exercise I wonder to myself "WTF are they thinking?". The real world is a wonderful place, stop ignoring it and get out of the car and experience it. Some of the minions do that and I ask them why. All I get are excuses; it's not safe, it's too hot, it's too cold, it's embarrassing, it's too polluted, etc. That last one, it's too polluted, is a real kicker. Of course it is because all the idiots are driving to the gym and making the world worse.

Love that. For once, we agree 100%. Not that I am a "sporty" type of guy (I am not, more like belly hoarding type, but at least, I don't go to the gym by car haha).
Caution: the argument about pollution may give away your lair

[xilman]

Originally Posted by The Carnivore

Although the resulting water & air pollution would not be pleasant, it would be preferable to a world where everyone would have to get around by foot, bike, sailboat, or horseback.

Drivel.

There are many sources of energy and chemical feedstock which do not include oil.

You may be too young to remember Sheik Zaki Yamani. One of his statements
was “The stone age didn’t end because they ran out of stones. People invented alternative tools. And the oil age won’t end because of a shortage of oil, but because we drive the price up so far, so fast, we stimulate alternatives.”

Stone age technology is still thriving, but is no longer of any great economic importance. I myself use stone age technology moderately often. It is still the case that grinding spices is best done (IMO) with a stone (granite in my case) mortar and pestle. In my kitchen is a flint multi-tool --- a combination hand-axe and scraper depending on how you hold it to use each edge --- which is still used every now and again. It works as well now as when it was made a few thousand years ago.

[Dr Sardonicus]

I would quail at doing my laundry in a tub (my back hurts just thinking about that), but there are plenty of other things, like yard work, for which I am happy to use my muscles. And am glad to be able to. Driving significant distances to a gym and back, to exercise without accomplishing anything useful, is sheer decadence.

IMO a good example of utter wastefulness is bottled water as sold in stores. This water is processed, put in small plastic bottles (made from oil), and transported by trucks (which burn diesel) to its selling point. A lot of people buy significant amounts of the stuff. And a lot of the bottles wind up in the environment.

I think Sheik Yamani's comment is quite pertinent. I'm old enough to remember when soda came in glass "deposit bottles." A major reason that plastic has displaced glass in making bottles is that plastic bottles are cheaper. I believe the same is true with other kinds of packaging. If the price of oil goes up enough, manufacturers will resort to other packaging materials. Heck, they might even start making washing machine transmissions out of metal again.

[The Carnivore]

Originally Posted by retina

Doing "numerous 10+ mile runs and hikes" sounds more like an optional activity for you with the way you phrased it. If you used a lot of fuel to travel to places to do many of those hikes/runs then those would end up being a net negative for the environment.

The real world is a wonderful place, stop ignoring it and get out of the car and experience it.

Which is precisely why I drive to get to those places! I drive to the lakes to swim, I drive to the beaches to surf, I drive to the mountains to hike, I drive to the deserts to camp, I drive to the forests to run, and so on. You can't get to those places by walking.

Originally Posted by retina

So you are unwilling to change the way you live, and prefer to poison the environment, to support your addiction to motorised transport?... If you used a lot of fuel to travel to places to do many of those hikes/runs then those would end up being a net negative for the environment. In which case, if true, you would have made the world worse for everyone, including yourself.

I am not so arrogant to believe that my transport activities have any significant impact on the environment, whether for better or for worse. I'm not a world or even a regional leader, I am merely one ordinary person out of ~7,700,000,000. Humanity as a whole will burn more oil and other fossil fuel in a few seconds than I will in my entire lifetime.

Originally Posted by retina

There is also this thing called planning. When blizzards happen then you plan for them. Then you don't need to randomly drive around in some oversized metal box just to get some milk.

What if you need to go to work that day?

I've also lived in places where icy/snowy conditions are more of a rule than an exception from late October - mid April. The snow that falls in November might not melt until March. Good luck planning your activities around those conditions.

Originally Posted by retina

When I see people drive significant distances to the gym to exercise I wonder to myself "WTF are they thinking?" ... Some of the minions do that and I ask them why. All I get are excuses; it's not safe, it's too hot, it's too cold, it's embarrassing, it's too polluted, etc. That last one, it's too polluted, is a real kicker. Of course it is because all the idiots are driving to the gym and making the world worse.

FWIW, I've never had a gym membership and have been to the gym less than a dozen times in my life. But there are plenty of good, valid reasons to go to the gym. One of them is the benefit of having a spotter when you're doing certain lifts such as the bench press and the back squat. Having access to coaches to watch your form and having the opportunity to meet other like-minded people are good things as well.

I personally think that the risk-reward ratio of heavy weightlifting isn't in my favor, so I drive to parks, trailheads, running tracks, etc. for exercise. Grass, dirt, and synthetic rubber are all better for your feet and knees than concrete, sloped asphalt, and cobblestones. And besides, running or biking around the block gets old after a while.

[Till]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

... other things, like yard work, for which I am happy to use my muscles. And am glad to be able to. Driving significant distances to a gym and back, to exercise without accomplishing anything useful, is sheer decadence.