Predict "M51"

Uncwilly · 2018-01-01, 06:36

With M50 found and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M51 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed.
If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor.
If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
All guesses received within the 48 hours before M51 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.
The discoverer of M51 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 30 hours after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified.
If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.
For the sake of this game, we will use the date that the prime is reported to the PrimeNet server as the date. This may differ from the officially reported discovery date.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.

GAME ON!

Batalov · 2018-01-01, 08:48

110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)

GP2 · 2018-01-01, 09:42

282,362,693

March 3, 2025

axn · 2018-01-01, 10:53

85833733 2018-11-15
98760853 2020-04-20
115218151 2022-07-01

ATH · 2018-01-01, 15:20

I'll redo my guess from the M50 thread:

99116189
2019-11-28

moebius · 2018-01-01, 15:46

(2^83018113) -1
June, 9th 2018
somewhere in that range .....

Prime95 · 2018-01-02, 03:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP2

On average we can expect the exponent of the next Mersenne prime to be about 1.47576 times larger than the previous one.

So we would expect the exponent of GIMPS' sixteenth prime to be around 636 million...

Code:

	1257787 (last Slowinski prime)
	1856192
	2739294
	4042540
	5965819
	8804116
	12992763
	19174200
	28296517
	41758868
	61626067
	90945284
	134213412
	198066786
	292299040
	431363231
	636588601

...or maybe we're just awfully lucky!

petrw1 · 2018-01-02, 04:12

99,999,703

April 3, 2023

M344587487 · 2018-01-02, 10:00

344587487, 2025-07-15

I know it's probably too large to be M51 proper, but it'll be M51(?) if it's the next one discovered ;)

VictordeHolland · 2018-01-02, 14:01

93,939,421
16 December 2021

firejuggler · 2018-01-02, 15:17

85021099
in mid december 2019
M49 was found on late december 2015/early january 2016 so lets hope for the same short delay

2018-01-01, 06:36	#1
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2²·7²·47 Posts	Predict "M51" With M50 found and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M51 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.) THE RULES OF THE GAME: Post your guess here, no PM'ing. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it. You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M51 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed. The discoverer of M51 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 30 hours after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored. For the sake of this game, we will use the date that the prime is reported to the PrimeNet server as the date. This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated. Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs. Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread. GAME ON!

2018-01-01, 15:46	#6
moebius Jul 2009 Germany 1043₈ Posts	(2^83018113) -1 June, 9th 2018 somewhere in that range ..... Last fiddled with by moebius on 2018-01-01 at 15:49

2018-01-02, 15:17	#11
firejuggler Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 2·1,259 Posts	85021099 in mid december 2019 M49 was found on late december 2015/early january 2016 so lets hope for the same short delay Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 2018-01-02 at 15:19

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M344587487 "Composite as Heck" Oct 2017 11·67 Posts	344587487, 2025-07-15 I know it's probably too large to be M51 proper, but it'll be M51(?) if it's the next one discovered ;)

2018-01-02, 14:01	#10
VictordeHolland "Victor de Hollander" Aug 2011 the Netherlands 2230₈ Posts	93,939,421 16 December 2021