When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?

Uncwilly · 2004-06-03, 22:01

When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?

We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the e-mail to George by a non-PrimeNet searcher.

Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons.

jeff8765 · 2004-06-03, 22:12

My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.

Uncwilly · 2004-06-04, 02:01

40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.

Uncwilly · 2004-06-04, 02:52

Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT

Prime Monster will find it.

Ivan Semenov · 2004-06-04, 04:21

Can't see the leader

ET_ · 2004-06-04, 15:54

I noticed two things:

1 - People is working hard on pre-factoring
2 - Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size

I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime.

Luigi

lycorn · 2004-06-04, 19:00

I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some non-GIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit non-Mersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...

Uncwilly · 2004-09-15, 20:45

bump

edorajh · 2004-09-16, 11:36

I vote "Second half of 2005". We will see...

Uncwilly · 2005-02-04, 00:06

Bump

At least 2 people were wrong.

cheesehead · 2005-02-05, 06:29

My record on publicly-posted predictions is just awful -- really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...

View Poll Results: When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
By the end of 2004	2	3.64%
First half of 2005	9	16.36%
Second half of 2005	14	25.45%
First half of 2006	13	23.64%
Second half of 2006 or later.	17	30.91%
Voters: 55. You may not vote on this poll

2004-06-03, 22:01	#1
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2³×7×167 Posts	When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported? When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported? We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the e-mail to George by a non-PrimeNet searcher. Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2004-06-03 at 22:04

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2004-06-03, 22:12	#2
jeff8765 Aug 2002 A Dyson Sphere 3F₁₆ Posts	My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.

2004-06-04, 02:01	#3
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 9352₁₀ Posts	40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.

2004-06-04, 02:52	#4
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 9352₁₀ Posts	Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT Prime Monster will find it.

2004-06-04, 04:21	#5
Ivan Semenov May 2004 This universe 2×17 Posts	Can't see the leader

2004-06-04, 15:54	#6
ET_ Banned "Luigi" Aug 2002 Team Italia 2⁶×3×5² Posts	I noticed two things: 1 - People is working hard on pre-factoring 2 - Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime. Luigi

2004-06-04, 19:00	#7
lycorn Sep 2002 Oeiras, Portugal 2³×181 Posts	I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some non-GIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit non-Mersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...

2004-09-15, 20:45	#8
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2³×7×167 Posts	bump

2004-09-16, 11:36	#9
edorajh Oct 2003 Croatia 2³·3·19 Posts	I vote "Second half of 2005". We will see...

2005-02-04, 00:06	#10
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 2³×7×167 Posts	Bump At least 2 people were wrong.

2005-02-05, 06:29	#11
cheesehead "Richard B. Woods" Aug 2002 Wisconsin USA 1111000001100₂ Posts	My record on publicly-posted predictions is just awful -- really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...