20210915, 17:07  #34 
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2·3·7·251 Posts 
On a related topic:
I was wondering how the spread of PRP with cert is impacting the DC vs FTC balance. So I went and pulled a bunch of old work distribution files from Archive.org. I initially grabbed 1 a month for the last year or so and less frequent back to the end of 2015. I summed the factored, the verified, and those with only a FTC from 0M to (but excluding) 150M. That revealed a decided and dramatic change in exponents that only had FTC and no DC in 2020 first up then down. We hit a peak on or about 19 August 2020 of 843737 FTC's awaiting verification. As of 13 September 2021 we are at 778878, down 64859 from the peak. A rough projection puts this gap closing around 2031AD I will be gathering more data before releasing a graph of this. There is a huge inflection in the count of verified exponents at the same point that the FTC's peaked. 
20210916, 16:10  #35 
Feb 2017
Nowhere
5×19×61 Posts 
I note that the Countdown to verifying all tests below M(57 885 161) has 25 "D" (LL Doublecheck) assignments. On August 21 there were 107 such assignments, according to this post. Of the 25 assignments now remaining, 12 have negative ETAs (in days); that is, they are "past due." They are overdue by from 13 to 50 days.
Of the 12 "overdue" assignments, 7 are assigned to the same user. Those 7 are overdue by 14, 18, 21, 22, 26, 30, and 39 days. 
20210916, 16:46  #36 
"Vincent"
Apr 2010
Over the rainbow
B1B_{16} Posts 
The one 'overdue' at 50 days is 99.5% done, I have hope.
Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 20210916 at 16:46 
20210916, 17:38  #37  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2·3^{2}·19^{2} Posts 
Quote:
Looking at it again today, at 25 remaining, as 3 groups, sorted by estimated completion: 14 are not updating for over a week, with latest expiration in 10 days M57836003; these will complete, or reissue, in 10 days or less, & if reissued, likely complete in ~17 days or less (~20211003) 7 are updating currently and ETA is sooner than expiration, with last ETA 20210922 in this group, latest expiration 27 days, so if one stops updating it might take until ~20211013 to reissue and ~20211020 to complete; that's unlikely because it's ATH's M57514837 and he's reliable; also Syntony is crushing the next longest expiration 22 days with 2 days to go on M57779987; 4 are recently or currently updating but ETA is later than expiration, expiring within 6 days; reissue and completion by ~20210929. Completion of verification to Mp#48* is the last of those dates, probably by 20211003, maybe as late as ~20211020 if we get an unlucky stall among the several now updating with ETAs of 6 days or less or a reissued exponent. AndersM's assignment of 57555247 is indicative of speed of Cat0capable systems: 6 days start to finish. To get to greenskull's revised estimate ~20211116, we'd need an additional stall on such an exponent following, or a very slow execution for a Cat0qualified system, and no poaching in response. The lowest 5 remaining exponents are Code:
exponent stage exp ETA last update Probable course 57223591 90.3% 20 0 20210915 clears in a day; lowest remaining exponent becomes 57256631, delta 33,040 57256631 69.9% 20 3 20210916 clears in a few days; lowest remaining jumps to 57555247, delta 298,616 57514837 8.7% 27 0 20210915 clears in a day; has no effect on lowest remaining exponent 57555247 9 6 20210916 clears in 6 days 57641957 86.7% 3 6 20210914 expires & reissues in a few days Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210916 at 18:12 

20210917, 11:11  #38 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
5×89 Posts 
Current situation.
Just in case, I made two quadratic approximations  green curves. First one with the previous kriesel's prediction 03 Oct 2021, the second one without that prediction. It seems to me that we will definitely fly far past October 03, but apparently within the limits of my red dotted tube. Unless, of course, a miracle happens :) I am still sticking to my early prediction Nov 16, 2021. Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20210917 at 11:23 
20210917, 14:04  #39 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2·3^{2}·19^{2} Posts 
From https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...tf=1&exfirst=1 near time of posting:
Code:
exponent stage exp ETA last update Probable course (57223591 cleared 20210916) 57256631 79.4% 20 2 20210917 clears in 2 days; lowest remaining jumps to 57555247, delta 298,616 57514837 8.7% 27 1 20210915 overdue; user contacted by PM to investigate; may have no effect on lowest remaining exponent 57555247 8 5 20210916 clears in 5 days 57641957 91.3% 2 5 20210914 expires & reissues in 2 days 57650269 72.3% 2 12 20210915 not progressing, expires & reissues in 2 days, completes ~20210926 Not a miracle, just normal progress. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210917 at 14:08 
20210917, 22:24  #40 
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2×3×7×251 Posts 
Here is the graph. The straight line is just an eyeball fit of the slope. The trend line will get better as more data is added over time. I will adjust the yaxis later to max it out at the total count of unfactored in the range.
Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20210917 at 22:26 
20210919, 01:14  #41 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2·3^{2}·19^{2} Posts 
From https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...&exp1=1&extf=1 near time of posting, 20 remain. Some recent completions, and the lowest 5 remaining:
Code:
exponent stage exp ETA last update Probable course 57256631 cleared 20210918 57514837 cleared 20210918 57555247 0.9% 26 3 20210918 now lowest unverified exponent (delta 298516 since 20210917); clears ~20210924 57641957 cleared 20210918 57650269 72.3% 0 12 20210915 not progressing, expires & reissues within a day, clears ~20210926 57727781 97.4% 2 1 20210917 completes or reissues by 20210920; completes by ~20210927 57728663 29.7% 2 17 20210804 expires and reissues 20210920, completes ~20210927 57730297 81.6% 2 6 20210906 expires and reissues 20210920, completes ~20210927 Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210919 at 01:25 
20210919, 08:13  #42 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺
5·89 Posts 
Kriesel's prediction of the high jump came true.
But usually, after each such jump, we observe a protracted decline in growth dynamics. I admit that the cherished moment may come somewhere in the middle between our predictions, but I don’t undertake to assert this reliably yet, therefore I leave my previous prediction in force. 
20210919, 14:15  #43 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2×3^{2}×19^{2} Posts 
In tracking the 56M verification milestone, it went from 21 remaining, to 0, in ~12.3 days.
(At 20210615 14:00:07 21 left; 20210627 21:30:09 0 left; UTC I believe, not that it matters in computing a delta) Today, there are 20 remaining in verification up to Mp#48*. 20210919 + 12d = 20211001. Greenskull would have us believe along with him that somehow for no reason given that this time will be markedly different; 20211116 is 46 days later, nearly 5fold longer from now than the previous experience (12+46)/12 ~4.83, or maybe reaching Mp#48* comes in the middle, only ~2.5 times longer than the previous experience. The current lowest unverified exponent, 57555247, has made progress consistent with completion in ~5 more days. That will be another ~100K jump, leaving only ~230K to go on exponent value. There is acceleration at the end partly because reissued assignments are all Cat0 to known fast reliable systems. A given span of say 250K in exponent value gets more thinly populated with remaining exponents over time, making larger deltas of lowest remaining exponent value more likely, and smaller ones less likely. The average delta between sorted remaining exponent values is now over 16,500. As intermediate exponents complete, the deltas between their remaining neighbors increase. Linear extrapolation does not allow for the acceleration that's known to occur, both observed empirically and for known good reasons/mechanisms including those built into the assignment rules. As in chess and other situations, in GIMPS milestone approach, the end game is not like the mid game. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210919 at 15:10 
20210919, 14:52  #44 
6809 > 6502
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
10100100101110_{2} Posts 

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