20080226, 17:06  #166  
Nov 2003
2^{2}×5×373 Posts 
Quote:
And we can NOT "take for granted the accuracy". The conjectures about the distribution of M_p *ONLY* apply as p>oo. We have no idea how accurate estimates might be for ranges now being studied. Do not use words like "very precisely" when dealing with ASYMPTOTIC estimates as applied to small numbers. 

20080227, 05:38  #167  
"Jason Goatcher"
Mar 2005
3·7·167 Posts 
Quote:
Sorry I wasn't clearer. Btw, the man in question hasn't been in irc for about 4 days according to my chat client. The pounce is still set up though. :) Btw, to R.D. Silverman, nice to see your claws come out. :) 

20080228, 11:02  #168  
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
2·3·13·83 Posts 
Quote:
given that the (small) probabilities involved are varying. If justified, the formula helps interpret what "expected number of primes" means in terms of predicting M45. David 

20080303, 01:38  #169 
"Jason Goatcher"
Mar 2005
3507_{10} Posts 
Just heard from "the dude" now. He says the doublecheck will finish in the next few weeks, meaning it will almost certainly be finished in the next 3 weeks, probably no more than two weeks, and possibly in 1 week or less.

20080303, 01:58  #170  
"Jason Goatcher"
Mar 2005
3·7·167 Posts 
from my friend:
Quote:


20080306, 14:18  #171 
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
2^{2}·11·97 Posts 
Is he just pointing out that an iPod with his new idea is faster than LLR on P4, or is it only run on an iPod? If so, why can't it run on a x86? What about the iPod's architecture would make it so good for primefinding? Does it play a musical tone relating to the number and see if it sounds prime?

20080306, 23:28  #172 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
96D_{16} Posts 
I had a dream last night that someone found M45. Too bad I woke up.

20080324, 11:22  #173  
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
2^{2}×11×97 Posts 
Quote:


20080329, 02:10  #174  
Jun 2004
2^{2}×3×5 Posts 
Quote:
fit instead of the simple linear function used in http://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html I used a function like this: and the best fit is: A=1.0591955 B=0.55569804 C=0.62716836 D=0.29018205 E=3.1763649 use this result to predict the next Mx exponent should be around 57971335, the one sigma range of this prediction is 45441065 < Mx < 73956798 Attached figure shows all 44 known exponents with the best fit curve (dotted lines indicate the 1sigma range) Last fiddled with by nngs on 20080329 at 02:16 

20080329, 03:08  #175 
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
6286_{10} Posts 
I think it is clear that it is all a mistake. I'm sure we would have seen it in the news by now if it was successful.

20080329, 03:13  #176 
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
2^{2}×11×97 Posts 

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