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View Poll Results: Where is the new (maybe not) prime?
18.0-19.0 M 3 2.11%
19.0-20.0 M 7 4.93%
20.0-21.0 M 11 7.75%
21.0-22.0 M 10 7.04%
Elsewhere, missed in DC, below 18 M 10 7.04%
14.4kbps or less to 19.2kbps 2 1.41%
21.6kbps to 26.4kbps 1 0.70%
28.8kbps to 36.0kbps 3 2.11%
38.4kbps to 52.8kbps 14 9.86%
better than dialup 37 26.06%
Less than 16 million 13 9.15%
16 million 5 3.52%
17 million 5 3.52%
18 million 9 6.34%
19 million or more 12 8.45%
Voters: 142. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 2003-06-05, 01:25   #34
ewmayer
2ω=0
 
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Sep 2002
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Phil Moore kindly provided the following quote and URL in a related thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by philmoore
The assertion of garo is that the distribution of Mersenne primes can be essentially modeled as a Poisson process. Chris Caldwell exhibits a graph ("Cumulative Frequency of Gaps in log2(log2(nth Mersenne))") that seems to support this on:

http://www.utm.edu/research/primes/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html

Caldwell also mentions Noll's "island theory" on this page, and points out that a certain amount of clumping is typical of Poisson processes.
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Old 2003-06-05, 09:14   #35
trif
 
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Heh, that's probably one of the best bennies of being a Mersenne discoverer, is you get notified ahead of time of any new finds.
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Old 2003-06-09, 20:29   #36
Prime95
P90 years forever!
 
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My unofficial verification is at 78% complete. Estimated completion date is 2:00 EDT on Wednesday.
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Old 2003-06-09, 22:24   #37
Xyzzy
 
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You are killing us...

If your test pans out will you let us know the exponent, or are you going to wait for Ernst's to finish?
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Old 2003-06-09, 22:28   #38
Complex33
 
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We could all guess what the exponent by emailing Xyzzy (if he would not mind) as a simple innerforum guessing game, then he could tell us who was right or close and so on.

How simply entertaining
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Old 2003-06-10, 00:01   #39
Prime95
P90 years forever!
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xyzzy
If your test pans out will you let us know the exponent, or are you going to wait for Ernst's to finish?
Y'all get to wait for Ernst's / Guillermo's official test. Even worse you get to wait for the press to print an article. It's easier to get coverage if its "breaking" news. I'll announce the exponent here, the Mersenne mailing list, the Mersenne web pages and Chris Caldwell's web pages the same day.
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Old 2003-06-10, 00:06   #40
TTn
 

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Sounds like politics to me. :D
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Old 2003-06-10, 00:39   #41
jeff8765
 
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Will you at least give us a vague range when one of the tests is finished. Down to the million or hundred thousand of the exponent? Please. ;)
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Old 2003-06-10, 00:42   #42
TTn
 

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Are we there yet?
no not yet
....
Are we there yet?
nope not yet
....
Are we.... :D
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Old 2003-06-10, 01:41   #43
trif
 
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Heh, this is like when I was overdue with my second child (my son, Danny). I was going totally nutso, but I eventually came to terms with the fact that it wouldn't be forever and I would just have to wait. It wasn't forever, and the waiting was much easier.

By the end of the month, we shall know. A blink of an eye in human history. Deal.
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Old 2003-06-10, 02:16   #44
Complex33
 
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Perhaps it would be more prudent in the future to remove the Prime Unverified flag in the Primenet system. That way only a select few would even be aware of a potential find till all was verified.
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