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Old 2008-05-23, 11:50   #188
davieddy
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian-E View Post
My prediction is that M46 will be discovered next in April 2011 and its exponent is somewhere between 88.000.000 and 88.050.000 .
2^32582657-1 will be proven to be indeed M44 within several months either side of that date, but M45 - somewhere between exponent 61.700.000 and 61.750.000 - will not be discovered in most of our lifetimes.

I'm behaving like Sylvia Browne now. Still, at least what I'm writing is relatively harmless.
I think that scenario is unlikely unless GIMPS changes its
ruthlessly methodical approach.
I will Google Sylvia Browne

David
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Old 2008-05-23, 12:26   #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davieddy View Post
I will Google Sylvia Browne

David
As I predicted, some kind of psychic

Petrw1 monitors GIMPS progress carefully so
I presume his expectation that all exponents
under 50,000,000 will be undergoing testing by
Christmas is plausible, and that the chance of
M45 being less than exponent 50,000,000 is
about 50/50.

My estimate of the expected time of arrival of M45 is 3-4 years.

Last fiddled with by davieddy on 2008-05-23 at 12:35
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Old 2008-05-23, 13:54   #190
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Somewhere between 79.3M-80M
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Old 2008-05-23, 14:16   #191
ATH
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M35-M36 284 days
M36-M37 156 days
M37-M38 490 days
M38-M39 897 days
M39-M40? 733 days
M40?-M41? 180 days
M41?-M42? 279 days
M42?-M43? 300 days
M43?-M44? 263 days

M44? - Today (May 23th 2008) 627 days

So we are currently in the 3rd largest prime gap :) After Sep 7th it will be 2nd largest and after Febuary 17th 2009 it will be the largest.
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Old 2008-05-23, 14:25   #192
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATH View Post
So we are currently in the 3rd largest prime gap :) After Sep 7th it will be 2nd largest and after Febuary 17th 2009 it will be the largest.
Of the GIMPS era of course
The trouble is that the interval between M40 and M44
was freakishly small.

Last fiddled with by davieddy on 2008-05-23 at 14:44
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Old 2008-05-29, 19:47   #193
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I predict next Mesenne prime will be found in between 55M~59M around Nov 2009
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Old 2008-05-29, 22:11   #194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nngs View Post
I predict next Mesenne prime will be found in between 55M~59M around Nov 2009
Your guess is a range that spans at least 2 other guesses.
Code:
Prime95	56,300,000	12/1/2009
rx7350	58,000,000	3/1/2010
Please narrow it down considerably
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Old 2008-05-29, 23:01   #195
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How about creating a search for M45 by polling? Start with a set of
reasonable ranges, we vote, then narrow the range down?
Maybe intuition will strike gold ...
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Old 2008-05-30, 00:21   #196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Your guess is a range that spans at least 2 other guesses.
Code:
Prime95	56,300,000	12/1/2009
rx7350	58,000,000	3/1/2010
Please narrow it down considerably
I did not notice that

Ok, my refined range is
57,970,000~57,980,000

Last fiddled with by nngs on 2008-05-30 at 00:22
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Old 2008-05-30, 00:58   #197
davieddy
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nngs View Post
I did not notice that

Ok, my refined range is
57,970,000~57,980,000
That sounds spot on
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Old 2008-05-31, 04:49   #198
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655,685,803
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