20130329, 03:44  #1 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
100101001110_{2} Posts 
How unlucky have I been?
I just realized I've completed 218 P1 assignments without finding a factor. Yikes.
Anyone ever had a longer dry spell? Last fiddled with by ixfd64 on 20130329 at 03:46 
20130329, 03:48  #2 
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
2^{3}·3·193 Posts 

20130329, 04:02  #3 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
9546_{10} Posts 

20130329, 09:14  #4  
Jun 2003
7·167 Posts 
Quote:
I recommend you try some torture testing. Perhaps your hardware is beginning to flake. Otherwise just carry on. Every P1 you do is a P1 that someone else won't have to do, and which, if they did, would have been done a lot less efficiently that you did it. 

20130329, 12:01  #5 
Account Deleted
"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA
17·251 Posts 
Assuming an average 3.5% chance of success per test (and assuming I'm calculating correctly), there was only a 1 in ~2400 probability that none of the 218 would result in a factor. You should've expected around 7.8 factors. Either you've been VERY unlucky, or your hardware is unstable.
Last fiddled with by MiniGeek on 20130329 at 12:06 
20130329, 14:17  #6 
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
2^{3}·3·193 Posts 
126 is my worst
In my life I have done 2,925 P1 (on several PC's).
My longest streak was 126 with no factors. But I also had a streak of 3 in a row and 4 out of 5. 182 total factors found: 6.22% 
20130329, 16:03  #7  
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
2·3·397 Posts 
Quote:


20130329, 16:08  #8 
"Mike"
Aug 2002
1111111001000_{2} Posts 
As a test, run an exponent that has a P1 factor already found?

20130329, 17:45  #9  
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
2^{3}×3×193 Posts 
Quote:
Doing Stge 1 AND 2? Enough RAM allocated to give you an estimate of at least 4% or more? Your resul last 365 days are only about 2.7%. Seems low. Could be one of the 2 reasons above OR just from your unlucky streak. But then your lifetime is over 6%. That's good. Last fiddled with by petrw1 on 20130329 at 17:52 

20130329, 18:09  #10 
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
2×3×5×11×29 Posts 
If you want to run some tests, here are ten which had a factor found by P1'ing. Set your PFactor line to have the "Factored To" value to be no more than the last column.
Code:
++++  Exponent  BitLevel  FactTo  ++++  54911783  58.3215560913  58   58910237  64.6313400269  64   58726133  65.4111557007  65   52733041  68.8312835693  68   51247057  70.7599105835  70   48609521  70.9801712036  70   52303133  71.0078811646  71   48533731  71.0444488525  71   47254231  71.0491561890  71   50556529  71.0697021484  71  ++++ 
20130329, 18:18  #11 
Einyen
Dec 2003
Denmark
2×7×223 Posts 
Looking at the lifetime stats on the P1 top producer page:
Top 100 producers have 25,681 successes in 536,894 attempts ~ 4.8% success rate Top 1000 producers have 34,632 successes in 794,810 attempts ~ 4.4% success rate Looking at all the 9,834 producers: 37,309 successes in 842,985 attempts ~ 4.4% success rate Using 4.4% for 218 failed attempts: 0.956^218 ~ 0.0055 % or 1 in 18204. Last fiddled with by ATH on 20130329 at 18:27 
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