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Old 2020-05-26, 16:36   #892
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It's getting downright biblical in places. Anyone for a bowl of locust and pasta or corn? https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/75997743.cms
"In Kenya, the locusts are eating in one day the amount of food consumed by all Kenyans in two days".

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Old 2020-05-26, 16:45   #893
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There are millions (?) of mutations occurring in viruses all the time. Many of those mutations either have no effect or render it inert. But occasionally it makes it more potent. With enough time and enough mutations even the most unlikely things will happen.
Sure. And we KNOW that some strains WERE DESIGNED. Because they PUBLISHED THEIR WORK. https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985 The lab is said to have created multiple strains. They're using genomes like tinkertoys, creating new life forms, relying on perfect containment, which is like playing russian roulette with the lives of millions of other people. It looks to me like one of the people responsible for creating an ideal human pathogen has performed the "investigation" that allegedly clears the lab of responsibility; in effect investigating and exonerating herself. Purely impartial and verifiable, I'm sure.

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Old 2020-05-28, 00:45   #894
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Scenario 5, CDC best current estimates. Case fatality rate 0.4%; 35% of infections are asymptomatic, so infection fatality rate under 0.3%, ~0.26% Similar to a bad flu season. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Actuarial tables for all-risks-fatality rate annually
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Fully referenced facts about Covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment. (Regular updates below)
“The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” (Albert Camus, 1947)
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Median age of coronavirus fatalities ~81.
Actuarial table, all causes risk of death in a year at that age 5.% females, 6.5% males.

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Old 2020-05-31, 22:41   #895
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Coronavirus: The mystery of ‘silent spreaders’ BBC -- Dog help me, but the first thing that popped into my head on seeing the headline was "silent but spreadly". Another life colored by growing up with "pull my finger" jokes and occasional drunken light-em up experiments.
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Old 2020-06-01, 00:35   #896
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At the bottom of your article is another one from May 23rd, very interesting and terrifying:

Coronavirus: 'Baffling' observations from the front line
https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992


Quote:
As the virus began to spread more rapidly in the UK throughout March, patients started arriving in hospitals because they were breathless and short of oxygen. But many of the most seriously ill - such as those who were admitted to intensive care - often had problems with other organs, not just their lungs. And their blood was acting in ways that have yet to be fully explained.

"We still don't really know why some patients feel OK to begin with, even though they have incredibly low levels of oxygen in their blood," says Prof Hugh Montgomery, a consultant in critical care at the Whittington Hospital in north London.

Doctors measure what they call oxygen saturation - the percentage of haemoglobin molecules in the blood that are carrying oxygen. Usually the aim with patients who are unwell is to keep it at 90% or above. But in some Covid-19 patients the levels drop quite a lot further, down to 80% and sometimes considerably lower than that.

Normally that is enough to set serious alarm bells ringing, but a number of patients appeared to be functioning relatively well with remarkably low levels of oxygen. "It may be related to the inflammation which is affecting the blood vessels," says Anthony Gordon. "It's stopping the oxygen getting into the blood, and that's what's leading to the low levels. But the lungs themselves are not so affected in the early stages."
Quote:
Blood clots also prevent proper circulation of the blood to other organs like the heart and the brain, making it far more likely that seriously ill Covid-19 patients could suffer a heart attack or a stroke. And some of the warning signs about blood clotting have astonished doctors.

The main protein in the blood which forms blood clots is called fibrinogen.

"Normally," says Beverley Hunt, "it's somewhere between two and four grams per litre in your blood. It goes up a bit in pregnancy, but what we're getting with Covid is as high as 10 to 14 grams per litre. I've never seen that in all my years as a doctor."

Another measure of the risk of clotting, a blood protein known as D-dimer, has also been off the scale. "In a healthy patient, levels are measured in the tens or hundreds," says Hugh Montgomery. "With Covid it's not been at all unusual to be seeing levels of 60, 70 or 80,000, which is quite unheard of."
Quote:
But all of these factors add up to Covid-19 being highly unpredictable - it is what specialists call a multisystem disease. That makes it much harder to know how best to treat any individual patient, and at the moment there is no textbook to tell doctors what to do.

"It's not just the lungs being affected," says Hugh Montgomery, "it's the kidneys, the heart, the liver. We've also seen severely inflamed muscle which is doing a lot of damage." More than 2,000 Covid patients admitted to intensive care have suffered kidney failure.
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Old 2020-06-03, 00:09   #897
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Specific immune suppression leads to severe COVID-19 disease | News-Medical.net. Note: preprint on medRxiv (linked in article), hence not yet peer-reviewed, but seems well-done and "interesting if true". Underlines mine:
Quote:
The mechanism by which the virus causes respiratory failure is largely undetermined even now, which has limited the development of proper therapies and management plans.

Many scientists think the cytokine storm syndrome is at the root of COVID-19-linked respiratory failure. This is based on the secretion of a high level of pro-inflammatory cytokines, causing inflammatory cells to be recruited and tissue damage to occur in the lung. The cytokines thought to be elevated in the lungs include IL-2, IL-7, IL-10, GCSF, IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1α, and TNFα.

This data [sic] came from a small study comparing a few COVID-19 patients in intensive care units (ICU) to others who had less severe illness. However, a deep understanding of the inflammatory milieu is essential to properly understand how cytokines contribute to the severity of the disease.

Influenza-related acute respiratory failure is also thought to be due to a significantly elevated level of inflammation and cytokines, amounting to a cytokine storm. The current study is aimed at achieving a comparison of the inflammatory response in a group of severely ill influenza patients tested in 2019-2020, with those occurring in severe COVID-19.

How the Study Was Done

The number of COVID-19-positive patients tested by PCR was 79, with the comparison group being 26 influenza patients who were recruited in the 15 months just before the COVID-19 epidemic in the St. Louis region. The latter group was markedly older than the first or the controls.

Among the COVID-19 patients, 27% died in hospital vs. 8% of the influenza patients. The number of pre-existing diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease was comparable in both groups.

Reduction in Cell Counts

Both COVID-19 and influenza patients had grossly reduced numbers of all types of both CD4 and CD8 T cells and CD19 B cells. These three populations generally comprise most of the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The number of activated CD4 T cells was lower in influenza patients, whereas monocyte numbers were significantly reduced in COVID-19, but one type was elevated in acute influenza. However, the number of plasmablasts in the bloodstream was much higher in the COVID-19 group.

Uneven Cytokine Expression

Cytokine expression in COVID-19 was seen in two distinct forms: in one group, very much the minority, 3 of 79 patients had extreme inflammation, with over 17/35 cytokines measured in the study present at very high levels. This is practically the definition of a cytokine storm.

On the other hand, the remaining COVID-19 patients had lower levels for 28/35 cytokines, including IL-9 and GM-CSF. Those that were significantly higher in the COVID-19 group were IL-6 and IL-8. In other words, most patients with COVID-19 showed a lower level of inflammation except for certain cytokines.
...
[Lots of technical detail snipped]
...
In other words, the immune cells and pathways found at higher levels in COVID-19 patients vary widely from those in influenza patients. The far more common phenotype of immune variation in COVID-19 patients was termed “targeted immunosuppression” by [the researchers.
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Old 2020-06-04, 23:43   #898
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The UK's leading medical journal, not content to rest on its fake-data laurels after the Andrew Wakefield vaccine-study scandal, disgraces itself once more by publishing a bogus hydroxychloroquine study. (To be fair, the leading US medical journal, NEJM, also joins the Lancet in the pillory.) As with the Wakefield study, the journal ignored massive, obvious conflicts of interest:

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company | The Guardian: Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies.

Whole lot of Big-Pharma-sponsored "we need to discredit this cheap widely used medication with regard to Covid-19 treatment in order to promote our own incredibly expensive snake-oil" 'research' going on at the moment. Another example - just saw this today:

Hydroxychloroquine does not prevent Covid-19 infection if exposed, study says | StatNews

The problem? Said study used the vitamin folate as a 'placebo' ... the same folate that e.g. increases CD4 levels in HIV patients. Ever heard of sugar pills, guys?
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Old 2020-06-05, 02:52   #899
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Authors Retract Hydroxychloroquine Study, Citing Concern Over Data
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...cern-over-data
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Old 2020-06-05, 15:23   #900
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Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
I pulled the updated numbers and there have been noticeable updates from week 2 onward. I will try to remember to post an updated graph Friday.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Here it is with updated figures. Week 18 and 19 are very incomplete (and thus note plotted). 16 and 17 will go up. I loaded all of the updated figures from this season (starting at week 40.) Only a single complete week this season has been below average (by about 0.0.3% of the value.)
Here is the graph with the numbers updated today. The peak has grown to over 21,000 deaths above average in a single week. The little trough in March (weeks 9-12) is gone. The peak is fatter. As before, I have not plotted the last 2 weeks numbers as they will rise a lot and to plot them now would be very deceptive (typically the last 4 weeks change a fair bit (week 15 changed from below 21,000 to over 21,600 this week, 22). I included the 4 standard deviations above the mean line (which is the 99.9% line.)
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Old 2020-06-05, 21:16   #901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Authors Retract Hydroxychloroquine Study, Citing Concern Over Data
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...cern-over-data
This mentions another thing I forgot to yesterday - the study was based on a *proprietary* database. How TF is anyone else supposed to be able to (in)validate the results without being able to see the the, um, actual *data* used? This is supposed to pass as 'science', whose most fundamental pillar is its self-correcting nature, that all alleged findings must be able to withstand independent scrutiny? And the WHO immediately made a global best-pactices recommendation based on this crap. The whole thing stinks to high heaven.

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Old 2020-06-06, 18:09   #902
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
This mentions another thing I forgot to yesterday - the study was based on a *proprietary* database. How TF is anyone else supposed to be able to (in)validate the results without being able to see the the, um, actual *data* used? This is supposed to pass as 'science', whose most fundamental pillar is its self-correcting nature, that all alleged findings must be able to withstand independent scrutiny? And the WHO immediately made a global best-pactices recommendation based on this crap. The whole thing stinks to high heaven.
You dismissed my critique on a small, intransparant company based in the US some weeks ago, now you rage on another one, haha.

When it comes to the Hydroxychloroquine question, is there any study yet that proves a positive effect?
Or are you simply going the Trumpian way, blaming the WHO/chinese because someone else must be the bad guy (but not Trump).
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