White 16

[LaurV]

Anyone against capturing? Or against capturing with the pawn? :D

If not, we are pretty clear on an "exchange the wood" route now, for the next moves, as expected, so:

[B]16. fxe5[/B]

(edit :we could speed up and don't give them the "weekend advantage" if we move today/tomorrow, they will have to think during the week, and reply before weekend :razz:)

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;360712]< snip >

(edit :we could speed up and don't give them the "weekend advantage" if we move today/tomorrow, they will have to think during the week, and reply before weekend :razz:)[/QUOTE]Please: [B]No Speeding![/B]

One oversight by us would negate months of "weekend advantages".

- -

From your previous analysis:
[QUOTE=LaurV;359862]< snip >

15.e5 dxe5 16. fxe5 Nxe5 17 Nxe5 Bxe5[/QUOTE]Remember Black's possibility of interpolating 17 ... Bxg2 here (18 Kxg2). That's probably good for us! So I don't expect it, but we do have to keep an eye on the a8-h1 diagonal until the white-square bishops are gone.

OTOH Bxg2 could be a prelude to Rd8, whereupon we have a convenient (first, Bxc5 if not already done) Nf2.

- -

An immediate 16 Bxc5 could be followed by 16 ... exf4, not in our interest

- -

We could do 16 Nxe5 to get our N off the a8-h1 diagonal first so that after 16 ... Nxe5 we have the option of 17 Bxb7

But then 17 ... Rxb7 lets Black protect the N/e7 for free so that 18 Bxc5 has less force ... not good for us.

- -

So, for now, unless someone else notices something:

16 fxe5 - 5

[LaurV]

Perfect.
WMH?

If we play by this variant (BTW: good observation about Bxg2) after 18. Bxc5 (or 19, in case Bxg2), we are very good on the queen's flank, with or without the g2 bishop. I see one of those white c/d pawns a queen already :w00t:

(p.s. I am not in hurry, it was just a question, "consulting the team members", hehe, otherwise you would say I am a despotic captain :razz:)

[WMHalsdorf]

I would like more time to look at 16 Nxe5 without Bxb7 as cheesehead pointed out it helps Black while a the Black move Bxg2 helps us.

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=WMHalsdorf;360757]I would like more time to look at 16 Nxe5 without Bxb7 [/QUOTE]Yes. I didn't go down that path.

Suppose Black doesn't capture with 16 ... Nxe5.

There's 16 ... Bxe5 or 16 ... c4 or 16 ... O-O

16 Nxe5 Bxe5 17 fxe5 c4 18 dxc4 bxc4 19 Bg5 (19 ... Nxe5 20 Bf6)
If 17 ... Nxe5 18 d4

So maybe Black doesn't capture with his KB ...

16 Nxe5 O-O 17 Nd7

... or castle ...

16 Nxe5 c4 17 dxc4 bxc4 18 Nxc4
If 17 ... Nxe5 18 fxe5 bxc4 (18 ... Bxe5 19 cxb5) then what?
19 Bd4 Nc6 or 19 Bf4

[cheesehead]

... continuing analysis of 16 Nxe5 c4:

17 Nxc6 Nxc6 18 dxc4 bxc4 19 Bc5 (intending 20 Ne3)

But 17 ... Bxc6 is better for Black. If 18 dxc4 then 18 ... bxc4 revives Black's Q-side attack.

So far, I think Black's best reply to 16 Nxe5 is 16 ... c4, oddly enough.

Does 17 d4 after 16 ... c4 look promising? If 17 ...Nxe5 18 fxe5 h6 19 Nf2
or 18 dxe5 threatening 19 Ba7 (19 ... Ra8 20 Bxb7 Rxa7 21 Be4

If 17 d4 f6

hmm...

[LaurV]

I considered that 16.Nxe5 is "strategically" not so good, because they can capture with the bishop, therefore forcing us to capture (otherwise we have a piece less), so we get to exchange anything and play the final with N+B against N+N, which might be bad for us (horses are better on finals).

"Tactically", I did not go very deep, because I like 16 fxe5. Here, if they don't take, we can later push d, and we got the pawn from f moved to e, to support d/c pawns. With 16.Nxe5, we can not.

After I analyzed the versions in your post, I looked better into it, assume they take indeed with the bishop, it doesn't seem good for them, anymore. 16. Nxe5 Bxe5. 17. fxe5 Nxe5 18. Bf4 and link the black knight after the exchange.

If they push c4 instead capturing, i mean 16. Nxe5 Bxe5. 17. fxe5 c4, this looks very bad for black after 18. d4, they can't do nothing there.

With 16 Nxe5 O-O (???) Nd7 they lose a rook. Not good for them, certainly win for us.

And etc, all the other versions you analyze, are not good for back, you are right.

But all of it is based on your affirmation "Suppose Black doesn't capture with 16 ... Nxe5" which you did in the beginning of the former post. Because if he does.... well...

You did the assumption in the beginning, but is seems that you forget it along the analyze expanding, :smile: and even affirming that c4 is their best reply. I am not so sure about that...

After 16 Nxe5 Nxe5 we have only two continuations possible:
1) take the horse (17.exf5)
2) take the bishop, then the horse, if it stays there (Bxb7, but in this case 17...Nxd3, we play with a pawn less, because we need to take that white bishop out first, from b7: 18.Be4 c4) - for this version I would not sacrifice the pawn in d, for noting. This continuation path is good for black.

The first continuation path seems a bit better for us, but I don't know what we do after it: 17.exf5 Bxg2 (forced, they have to move the rook, and the bishop is not defended) Kxg2 Rc8, we attack a pawn and have 2 to defend... But we have the sente, so black can't beat both pawns, he has to choose... (People used to make fun of me because I use terms from Go in chess... hehe, but now you see why sente is important...)

Here we need more thinking, it might turn out better for us.

Up to now, I agree that all black responses to 16.Nxe5 are very bad for black (and good for us), except 16...Nxe5

[cheesehead]

[QUOTE=LaurV;360807]I considered that 16.Nxe5 is "strategically" not so good, because they can capture with the bishop, therefore forcing us to capture (otherwise we have a piece less), so we get to exchange anything and play the final with N+B against N+N, which might be bad for us (horses are better on finals).[/QUOTE]Knights are _not_ necessarily better than bishops! (Indeed, most think that B is slightly better than N, on average.) It depends on the pawn structure, whether the B can maneuver better. A dogmatic preference isn't good.

[quote]After I analyzed the versions in your post, I looked better into it, assume they take indeed with the bishop, it doesn't seem good for them, anymore. 16. Nxe5 Bxe5. 17. fxe5 Nxe5 18. Bf4 and link the black knight after the exchange.[/quote]Yes, thanks for noticing that.

[quote]If they push c4 instead capturing, i mean 16. Nxe5 Bxe5. 17. fxe5 c4, this looks very bad for black after 18. d4, they can't do nothing there.[/quote]Okay.

[quote]After 16 Nxe5 Nxe5 < snip >
2) take the bishop, then the horse, if it stays there (Bxb7, but in this case 17...Nxd3, we play with a pawn less, because we need to take that white bishop out first, from b7: 18.Be4 c4) - for this version I would not sacrifice the pawn in d, for noting. This continuation path is good for black.[/quote]Right. Confirms previous opinion that we let Black initiate the white-squared B exchange.

[quote]The first continuation path seems a bit better for us, but I don't know what we do after it: 17.exf5 Bxg2 (forced, they have to move the rook, and the bishop is not defended) Kxg2 Rc8, we attack a pawn and have 2 to defend...[/quote]Which two pawns would we have to defend?
e5 & ?

- -

16 fxe5

I've gotten lost -- what is Black's best reply to 16 fxe5 ?

not 16 fxe5 Nxe5 17 Bf4 ?

not 16 fxe5 Bxe5 17 Nxe5 Nxe5 18 Bf4 ?

[LaurV]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;360879]
Which two pawns would we have to defend?
e5 & ?
[/QUOTE]
Hm... sorry, here I did a typing mistake, I wanted to say Rd8, and not Rc8. In which case, e5 and d3 will be both under attach, and we can not push d4 to connect them (use the one to defend the other) because after (20?)...cxd, (21?) cxd Nf5, we will lose the central pawns.

But this it seems to be a "fortunate" mistake, because with this occasion I had a better look to Rc8. I said "what if?", and you may hit me on the nose if this is not a better version for black! What do we reply to:

16. Nxe5 Nxe5, 17. fxe Bxg2 18 Kxg2 Rc8 ?

The question mark is a mark for the question, and not a mark that the move is bad. This (black) move is good! We have no reply to it... after 19.d4, he beats it (then Bxd4 is bad - after Nc6 we lose the other pawn; and cxd4 is bad too, black gets free column, he can now safely castle, and be on our head with both rooks). After 19. Bf4, then what? 19..g5 and he gives weak pawn for our central pawn. Anyhow, this still needs a lot more thinking, but it seems their move is [U]18.Rc8[/U], and not Rd8, after the exchange in the center. I don't think he can transform on the queen side, no way. But with the white d/e pawns, there it goes our chances to transform too... This will go to a draw. We need something better... But what?


[QUOTE]
16 fxe5

I've gotten lost -- what is Black's best reply to 16 fxe5 ?

not 16 fxe5 Nxe5 17 Bf4 ?

not 16 fxe5 Bxe5 17 Nxe5 Nxe5 18 Bf4 ?[/QUOTE]

We were discussing 16 Nxe5, only. After your remarks (both you and WMH) I tried to see the potential of the move. As explained above, it did not convince me yet, but it is still a lot to analyze, and because no weekends, I may not have time for it.

For 16 fxe5, I think Nxe5 is their best reply. 16...Bxe5 doesn't look so good for black, after 17.Bxc5, he has to put the bishop somewhere, and can't avoid Ne3 (at least! I never liked that horse there :razz:), so we are with all artillery on their head...

So, my pick is still as said in the beginning: 16. fxe5 Nxe5 17.Nxe5 Bxe5 18. Bxc5, then (maybe) Bxg2 19. Kxg2; with this we are much stronger on queen side, we get the open column, we can safely take out the horse in e3, the king is on white (he has black bishop) and can't be immediately attacked, and we have free pawn after the exchange in c/d. If they get out of this path, we will do better, like getting a pawn advantage, etc.

I will go on your hand, if you say 16.Nxe5 is better, you had very good inspiration in the past too, but for now, I still think 16 fxe5 is better.

[cheesehead]

It's not that I thought 16 Nxe5 is necessarily better ... it's that I wanted to explore it more. Now that we have explored 16 Nxe5 I, too, prefer 16 fxe5

[QUOTE=LaurV;360918]< snip >

For 16 fxe5, I think Nxe5 is their best reply.[/QUOTE]Maybe, but we could try a pawn sac:

17 Bf4

which threatens to win the Exchange:

Not 17 ... Nxd3?? 18 Bxb8

If instead 17 ... Nxf3+?? 18 Bxf3 then Black loses either the Exchange or a bishop (18 ... Bxf3 19 Bxb8 or if 18 ... R/b moves 19 Bxb7)

Best for Black may be 17 ... N7c6

Then it could go: 18 d4 Nxf3+ 19 Bxf3 e5 (if R moves 20 dxc5) 20 Bxc6+ Bxc6 21 Bxe5 Bxe5 22 dxe5

But this could just lose a pawn for nothing, so after 16 fxe5 Nxe5, safer might be 17 Bxc5
or 17 Nxe5 Bxe5 18 Bxc5

- -

16 fxe5 - 5
16 Nxe5 - 1

[WMHalsdorf]

After looking at Nxe5 I feel it's like walking thru a mine field there a just to any transitions from tactical move to and from positional moves fxe5 is much simpler in this respect so I would rate fxe5 higher than Nxe5. We'll know more by how close to the time limit there reply is to see if fxe5 was what was expected.