20211017, 22:02  #45 
"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE
34B_{16} Posts 

20211018, 04:31  #46 
"99(4^34019)99 palind"
Nov 2016
(P^81993)SZ base 36
6215_{8} Posts 

20211028, 15:49  #47 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
17F8_{16} Posts 
Anyone have constructive onthreadtopic comments or forecasts?
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20211028 at 15:50 
20211028, 16:09  #48 
Jul 2003
Behind BB
2^{4}·113 Posts 
I cleaned up the thread a bit.
Since I messed with your thread, it's only fair I make a contribution to the topic. Here's a date estimate for proof of MP#49*: 20250808 Last fiddled with by masser on 20211028 at 16:10 
20211028, 17:21  #49  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{3}·13·59 Posts 
Thanks for trying, and for the cleanup. A stated basis is required. A hypothetical basis of wedging an estimate in between the others' is not an acceptable basis. The estimate basis needs to have some connection to number theory or mathematical fitting to historical data. The best would define an algorithm that could be applied by anyone to later forecast verification for primes not yet found.
Quote:
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20211028 at 17:27 

20211028, 17:40  #50  
Jul 2003
Behind BB
3420_{8} Posts 
Quote:
Consider the verification milestone completion dates here. Since 2014, we've averaged 4.125 1M ranges per year. I rounded this down to 4 1M ranges per year. It appears likely that we will finish 59M this year. At the rate of 4 1M ranges per year, we should see 71M cleared by the end of 2024. Then getting to 74.2 will require about 3/4 of a year, so throw a dart at the 3rd quarter of 2025... 20250808. Of course, the above handwaving could be improved, but as others have mentioned there is a lot of uncertainty in these predictions. Is this credible enough? Last fiddled with by masser on 20211028 at 17:41 

20211028, 18:03  #51 
"Vincent"
Apr 2010
Over the rainbow
AC5_{16} Posts 
ok, lets refine my prediction of 'first half of 2029' stated in post #1
On 20211006 there was 268โ808 testbefore verifying M74207281 Today on 20211028, 22 later, there is 264โ088 So that mean 4720 test dpne in the range. Thats around 214 test by day. 264100/214= 1231 day from now, so a bit morethan 3 years. That would bring it back to 20250312. I think it is still a bit optimistic . 
20211028, 20:59  #52 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 

20211101, 06:08  #53 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{3}×13×59 Posts 
from https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 20211101 05:45:08 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

20211101, 18:12  #55  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 
Quote:
GIMPS is a sect with no exit. Those who come here stay here forever. 

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