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Old 2021-10-17, 22:02   #45
kruoli
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
A little later, I will summarize all the forecasts here in a table and publish.
You constantly insist on others not writing this or that in "your" threads, but in "other's" threads you feel comfortable posting things that are not welcomed there?
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Old 2021-10-18, 04:31   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Not yet updated. How is that done?
Also A279095 should be updated, a(29) is known to be 1996040, and a(30) - a(38) = {1, 700, 623, 134, 88864, 284, 1236, 821688, 60}

Also A126043 - A126059

Also A028335, A061193
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Old 2021-10-28, 15:49   #47
kriesel
 
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Anyone have constructive on-thread-topic comments or forecasts?

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-28 at 15:50
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Old 2021-10-28, 16:09   #48
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I cleaned up the thread a bit.

Since I messed with your thread, it's only fair I make a contribution to the topic.

Here's a date estimate for proof of MP#49*: 2025-08-08

Last fiddled with by masser on 2021-10-28 at 16:10
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Old 2021-10-28, 17:21   #49
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Thanks for trying, and for the cleanup. A stated basis is required. A hypothetical basis of wedging an estimate in between the others' is not an acceptable basis. The estimate basis needs to have some connection to number theory or mathematical fitting to historical data. The best would define an algorithm that could be applied by anyone to later forecast verification for primes not yet found.
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Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
15) Estimates made, without specification for each estimate, of all 3 of the following elements,
  1. which Mersenne prime, eg Mp#49*/Mp#50*/Mp#51* (or eventually Mp#52*),
  2. estimated date of verification completion, and
  3. corresponding stated credible basis,
are invalid and shall be ignored. Estimates made before the time and date of this post are grandfathered in, and may be supplemented by stating the basis for them, within 30 days of original posting of estimate elements. Stating a clear reproducible basis or algorithm is encouraged.
(Examples of credible basis are fits to past milestones, projections based on number of verification completions per day, projections based upon total GHzD required and primenet statistics, other fully documented math based approaches; examples of not credible basis are crystal balls, ouija boards, magic 8balls, dreams, premonitions, psychics)

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-28 at 17:27
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Old 2021-10-28, 17:40   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masser View Post
I cleaned up the thread a bit.

Since I messed with your thread, it's only fair I make a contribution to the topic.

Here's a date estimate for proof of MP#49*: 2025-08-08
Ah, sorry, missed that detail.

Consider the verification milestone completion dates here. Since 2014, we've averaged 4.125 1M ranges per year. I rounded this down to 4 1M ranges per year. It appears likely that we will finish 59M this year. At the rate of 4 1M ranges per year, we should see 71M cleared by the end of 2024. Then getting to 74.2 will require about 3/4 of a year, so throw a dart at the 3rd quarter of 2025... 2025-08-08.

Of course, the above hand-waving could be improved, but as others have mentioned there is a lot of uncertainty in these predictions. Is this credible enough?

Last fiddled with by masser on 2021-10-28 at 17:41
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Old 2021-10-28, 18:03   #51
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ok, lets refine my prediction of 'first half of 2029' stated in post #1


On 2021-10-06 there was 268โ€‰808 testbefore verifying M74207281

Today on 2021-10-28, 22 later, there is 264โ€‰088
So that mean 4720 test dpne in the range. Thats around 214 test by day.



264100/214= 1231 day from now, so a bit morethan 3 years.
That would bring it back to 2025-03-12. I think it is still a bit optimistic .
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Old 2021-10-28, 20:59   #52
greenskull
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My prediction for M60000000 -- May 12, 2022
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showth...619#post589619

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Old 2021-11-01, 06:08   #53
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from https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/

Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-11-01 05:45:08 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)
  • All exponents below 58โ€‰153โ€‰567 have been tested and verified.
  • All exponents below 105โ€‰380โ€‰837 have been tested at least once.
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 106 million: 6
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 107 million: 363
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 59 million: 199 (3 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 60 million: 6โ€‰788 (4โ€‰019 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74โ€‰207โ€‰281): 263โ€‰377
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77โ€‰232โ€‰917): 318โ€‰751
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82โ€‰589โ€‰933): 417โ€‰448
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Mpnn verification forecasts.pdf (21.2 KB, 29 views)
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Old 2021-11-01, 09:40   #54
Zhangrc
 
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My prediction for 59M milestone: 2021-12-31
60M milestone: 2022-03-02

( I've invited a friend to join GIMPS and he is currently testing M63939553 )
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Old 2021-11-01, 18:12   #55
greenskull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhangrc View Post
My prediction for 59M milestone: 2021-12-31
60M milestone: 2022-03-02

( I've invited a friend to join GIMPS and he is currently testing M63939553 )
It is nice bold prediction!
GIMPS is a sect with no exit. Those who come here stay here forever.
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