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Old 2021-10-06, 15:49   #12
greenskull
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I have no complaints. And there is no limit to perfection :)

Taking into account your understanding, you should hit the bull's-eye right off the bat.
Or do you also pass like Dr Sardonicus? Oops!

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Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
If you think you do, it is incumbent upon you to explain why you think it is better.
Perhaps I will do it later. First, I want to watch the progress to make sure my model is performing well and also to refine it during this time.

By fundamental factors, I mean the specifics of the exponents processing mechanism. I don't quite thoroughly understand this mechanism yet. And so I prefer to investigate curves.

Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-10-06 at 16:07
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Old 2021-10-06, 16:07   #13
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Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
Taking into account your understanding, you should hit the bull's-eye right off the bat.
Or do you also pass like Dr Sardonicus? Oops!
I didn't "pass." I endorsed firejuggler's method and his estimate. It's essentially the same as the method I used for my estimate for 57885161, which proved to be accurate. With 74207281 he simply beat me to the punch.

I'm certainly not going to argue with my own success
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Old 2021-10-06, 16:13   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I didn't "pass." I endorsed firejuggler's method and his estimate. It's essentially the same as the method I used for my estimate for 57885161, which proved to be accurate. With 74207281 he simply beat me to the punch.

I'm certainly not going to argue with my own success
No problem. But sometimes everyone can shoot the sky and hit a bird ยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ
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Old 2021-10-06, 16:34   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
If you think you do, it is incumbent upon you to explain why you think it is better.
It appears to me greenskull has no explanation, only blind statistical analysis and ill-chosen fits. Which are also typical of math forum trolls. Or unsupported or well-refuted claims in forums generally. Even repeated instruction seems to have been unproductive.
https://mersenneforum.org/profile.php?do=ignorelist

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-06 at 16:41
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Old 2021-10-06, 16:59   #16
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My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that all exponents below 74 207 281 will be tested and verified by
March 08, 2025 ยฑ 64 days (85%).
I do not exclude that it can go according to a very optimistic scenario and then the desired date will come earlier - in July 2024.
But I don't have enough data yet to confirm this scenario. Therefore, for me it is still an optimistic hypothesis that is being tested by time.
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Old 2021-10-06, 20:32   #17
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Default Collection of Mp49*-Mp51* remaining DC versus date

The values have been collected from numerous posts with date/time stamps in the Mp48* thread.
Here it is, for the convenient reference of any who wish to make projections, fits, guesses, estimates, proclamations etc.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf mp49etcverificationmilestoneestimate.pdf (42.0 KB, 44 views)
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Old 2021-10-06, 21:38   #18
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Oct 31, 2024

I think I might start DC'ing downward from M49. That will help the value jump quickly at the end.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2021-10-06 at 21:43
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Old 2021-10-06, 22:00   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Oct 31, 2024...
Respect!
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Old 2021-10-07, 02:39   #20
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I see a major discrepancy - on the order of a factor of 2 - between the rate of clearance figures "20k exponents cleared/6 months" (as per firejuggler) and "213 exponents cleared per day" (as per kriesel).

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Old 2021-10-07, 02:54   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I see a major discrepancy
Perhaps explainable by different exponent ranges.
DC done below Mp48 would affect the totals left for up to Mp49* and higher also, but DC above Mp48 or Mp49 affects some totals left but not below. Also, several months at the end of reaching Mp48 naturally has progressively lower daily rate of DC completion. Many systems would not qualify for cat 1 or 0, and eventually there are too few exponents left to occupy available DC throughput. The bulk of the DC wave moves onward to higher exponents.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-07 at 03:10
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Old 2021-10-07, 03:01   #22
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Well I have been tracking the number of exponents with outstanding need for DC (in the range of 0M to 150M). In recent times that has been ~200 +/- 30 per day. My estimate of when we will reach the goal is based upon the progress in the DC milestone. Currently we are fitting the long term curve very well. And that corresponds well to kriesel's estimated date.
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