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Old 2021-11-01, 21:13   #56
lycorn
 
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A Hotel California of sorts...
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Old 2021-11-23, 01:58   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): 263 377
Check at Mersenne.org:
Quote:
2021-11-23 00:37 UTC Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74207281): 258872
That's 4505 exponents in 21 days. At that rate, it would take about 1207 days to clear the remaining 258872 exponents, or around mid-March 2505 2025.

Of course, that mindless extrapolation disregards the fact that the exponents are getting bigger, and that consequently the rate of clearance might well go down.

So I'd say "no sooner than" mid March 2025. I would say this previously-offered estimate is quite reasonable:
Quote:
Originally Posted by masser View Post
<snip>
Here's a date estimate for proof of MP#49*: 2025-08-08

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-11-23 at 13:52
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Old 2021-11-23, 02:40   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
It is nice bold prediction!
GIMPS is a sect with no exit. Those who come here stay here forever.
At least not for DrKirkby, he came to run around 105 PRPs, then he quit, so I'm sure there are exits somewhere along the way.
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Old 2021-11-23, 04:28   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Of course, that mindless extrapolation disregards the fact that the exponents are getting bigger, and that consequently the rate of clearance might well go down.
Is there any data on how much of our current DC throughput is coming from v<30 machines sending FTC requests and getting DC work back? If it's significant (say >10%), one has to consider that these systems are eventually going to either fall offline — probably sooner than the average GIMPS-contributing system just based on the age of the installation and the owner's lack of involvement — or finally be upgraded and restored to FTC work. This might be another handicap against a linear extrapolation from current throughput.
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Old 2021-11-23, 13:38   #60
Viliam Furik
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
That's 4505 exponents in 21 days. At that rate, it would take about 1207 days to clear the remaining 258872 exponents, or around mid-March 2505.
I understand all the numbers here, except for the year 2505 (?!).
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Old 2021-11-23, 13:56   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viliam Furik View Post
I understand all the numbers here, except for the year 2505 (?!).
Oops. I really outdid myself that time! I meant 2025.

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Old 2021-12-01, 23:45   #62
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Default First of month snapshot

Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-12-01 23:30:09 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

  • All exponents below 58 204 879 have been tested and verified.
  • All exponents below 106 068 059 have been tested at least once.
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 107 million: 36
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 108 million: 2 944 (864 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 59 million: 25
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 60 million: 3 576 (2 558 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74 207 281): 257 139
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77 232 917): 312 347
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82 589 933): 411 037
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Old 2021-12-30, 14:01   #63
kriesel
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhangrc View Post
My prediction for 59M milestone: 2021-12-31
60M milestone: 2022-03-02
59M: VERY good, +2 days. Congrats.

60M: TBD, looks promising. 365/5 = 73 days while 2022-03-02 - 2021-12-29 = 63 days.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-12-30 at 14:04
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Old 2021-12-31, 03:52   #64
Zhangrc
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
59M: VERY good, +2 days. Congrats.

60M: TBD, looks promising. 365/5 = 73 days while 2022-03-02 - 2021-12-29 = 63 days.
Tuckerkao poached the last two so it's 8 days.
Now I might change my 60M prediction to 2022-03-07 (if no one poaches), and I predict that the verification of M74207281 will happen on 2024-12-25.

Last fiddled with by Zhangrc on 2021-12-31 at 03:53
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Old 2021-12-31, 16:43   #65
kriesel
 
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Default (near) Year end status snapshot

Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-12-31 16:30:10 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)

  • All exponents below M(59160533) have been tested and verified.
  • All exponents below M(107022467) have been tested at least once.
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 108 million: 228
  • Countdown to first time checking all exponents below 109 million: 10 450 (7 832 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 60 million: 2 003 (1 373 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below 61 million: 12 566 (9 812 available)
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(74207281): 250 765
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(77232917): 306 056
  • Countdown to verifying all tests below M(82589933): 404 740
(copy/paste from https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/)
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Old 2022-01-05, 17:35   #66
storm5510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Progress toward next GIMPS milestones (last updated 2021-12-01 23:30:09 UTC, updates every 15 minutes)
  • All exponents below 58 204 879 have been tested and verified.
  • All exponents below 106 068 059 have been tested at least once.
The last batch of TF's I ran were in the 69M area, if memory serves. Something drastic must have happened to require a recheck of so many?
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