Projected results of sea level rise

[kladner]

http://www.weather.com/news/science/...study-20140306

Illustrations of well-known sites with 15 and 35 meters of sea level increase.

[retina]

Well this is the Soap Box so I am going to complain, hehe:

Yet another broken website riddled with JS. Click here and nothing happens. Click there and nothing happens. All I saw was a picture of the Statue of Slavery Liberty. It was quite a nice picture, but hardly worth a visit to the page just for that.

For those of you that still have your tracking and exploit JS code enabled do let me know the highlights. Thanks.

[kladner]

Here's an example. The 3 frames are "Present", "+15 meters", "+35 meters".

[Nick]

A review of 3 cases from about 7000 years ago:

https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/handle/1887/18938

"The three examples presented in this article show that in the past people could not cope with a rising sea level. It was not so much the sea level itself as the resulting rise of the water table. At present the problems arising from both processes are warded off with dikes and artificial drainage, but an effective defence requires the application of technological skills on a large scale. The problems also require people to be working together on a regional scale. Both factors were obviously lacking in Dutch prehistory. On a local scale people reacted by raising the surface they lived on, a process which led in some regions to the growth of dwelling mounds. The examples best known are the so-called terpen in the northern parts of the Netherlands which were constructed from the 6th century BC onwards. But people could not raise an entire environment. When the environment became too marshy or suffered too often from floods they had to leave."

[kladner]

That is a fascinating account, Nick. Archaeology is one of my obsessions. I am currently rereading a book which tries to explain the trajectory of Maya culture and political structure in terms of their calendar(s) and the succession of dominance by different power centers.

[fivemack]

Originally Posted by kladner

Here's an example. The 3 frames are "Present", "+15 meters", "+35 meters".

I would really like to see someone try to do this realistically. They're not going to let the Statue of Liberty sink; what you'd draw is the panoramic view from the top of the Verrazano Narrows dyke, looking over past the Statue of Liberty to a New York City which has had to figure out what to do with enormous amounts of riverside infrastructure to which ships don't turn up as often. On the other side of the painting you'd draw one of the enormous locks required to let ships into New York bay, and the enormous pumps used to pump the flow of the Hudson River up to sea level and out to sea.

If you want, also show the new port built on artificial islands on the other side of the dyke, and the robot-controlled sailing container ships coming in to dock on it.

[fivemack]

Originally Posted by Nick

A review of 3 cases from about 7000 years ago:

https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/handle/1887/18938

"The three examples presented in this article show that in the past people could not cope with a rising sea level. It was not so much the sea level itself as the resulting rise of the water table. At present the problems arising from both processes are warded off with dikes and artificial drainage, but an effective defence requires the application of technological skills on a large scale. The problems also require people to be working together on a regional scale. Both factors were obviously lacking in Dutch prehistory. On a local scale people reacted by raising the surface they lived on, a process which led in some regions to the growth of dwelling mounds. The examples best known are the so-called terpen in the northern parts of the Netherlands which were constructed from the 6th century BC onwards. But people could not raise an entire environment. When the environment became too marshy or suffered too often from floods they had to leave."

If you're interested in that sort of thing, you might well like Steven Baxter's Stone Spring, whose hypothesis is that (under the influence of a particularly persuasive wandering merchant from Jericho) people in Dutch prehistory did work together on a regional scale to build dams big enough to keep the water out.

[kladner]

Thanks for the imaginative response on the future of NY Harbor. I was a bit disappointed that more care was not taken to match the angle of view between the three images in the example.

The Baxter story does sound interesting. I may look around for it.

[cheesehead]

"Miami, the great world city, is drowning while the powers that be look away"
"Low-lying south Florida, at the front line of climate change in the US, will be swallowed as sea levels rise. Astonishingly, the population is growing, house prices are rising and building goes on. The problem is the city is run by climate change deniers"

A drive through the sticky Florida heat into Alton Road in Miami Beach can be an unexpectedly awkward business. Most of the boulevard, which runs north through the heart of the resort's most opulent palm-fringed real estate, has been reduced to a single lane that is hemmed in by bollards, road-closed signs, diggers, trucks, workmen, stacks of giant concrete cylinders and mounds of grey, foul-smelling earth.

It is an unedifying experience but an illuminating one – for this once glamorous thoroughfare, a few blocks from Miami Beach's art deco waterfront and its white beaches, has taken on an unexpected role. It now lies on the front line of America's battle against climate change and the rise in sea levels that it has triggered.

. . .

Every year, with the coming of high spring and autumn tides, the sea surges up the Florida coast and hits the west side of Miami Beach, which lies on a long, thin island that runs north and south across the water from the city of Miami. The problem is particularly severe in autumn when winds often reach hurricane levels. Tidal surges are turned into walls of seawater that batter Miami Beach's west coast and sweep into the resort's storm drains, reversing the flow of water that normally comes down from the streets above. Instead seawater floods up into the gutters of Alton Road, the first main thoroughfare on the western side of Miami Beach, and pours into the street. Then the water surges across the rest of the island.

The effect is calamitous. Shops and houses are inundated; city life is paralysed; cars are ruined by the corrosive seawater that immerses them. During one recent high spring tide, laundromat owner Eliseo Toussaint watched as slimy green saltwater bubbled up from the gutters. It rapidly filled the street and then blocked his front door. "This never used to happen," Toussaint told reporters. "I've owned this place eight years and now it's all the time."

. . .

Hence the construction work at Alton Road, where $400m is now being spent in an attempt to halt these devastating floods – by improving Miami Beach's stricken system of drains and sewers. In total, around $1.5bn is to be invested in projects aimed at holding back the rising waters. Few scientists believe the works will have a long-term effect.

. . .

It [sic] a devastating scenario. But what really surprises visitors and observers is the city's response, or to be more accurate, its almost total lack of reaction. The local population is steadily increasing; land prices continue to surge; and building is progressing at a generous pace. During my visit last month, signs of construction – new shopping malls, cranes towering over new condominiums and scaffolding enclosing freshly built apartment blocks – could be seen across the city, its backers apparently oblivious of scientists' warnings that the foundations of their buildings may be awash very soon.

. . .

... Most of Florida's senior politicians – in particular, Senator Marco Rubio, former governor Jeb Bush and current governor Rick Scott, all Republican climate-change deniers – have refused to act or respond to warnings of people like Wanless or Harlem or to give media interviews to explain their stance, though Rubio, a Republican party star and a possible 2016 presidential contender, has made his views clear in speeches. "I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it. I do not believe that the laws that they propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy," he said recently. Miami is in denial in every sense, it would seem. Or as Wanless puts it: "People are simply sticking their heads in the sand. It is mind-boggling."

Not surprisingly, Rubio's insistence that his state is no danger from climate change has brought him into conflict with local people. Philip Stoddard, the mayor of South Miami, has a particularly succinct view of the man and his stance. "Rubio is an idiot," says Stoddard. "He says he is not a scientist so he doesn't have a view about climate change and sea-level rise and so won't do anything about it. Yet Florida's other senator, Democrat Bill Nelson, is holding field hearings where scientists can tell people what the data means. Unfortunately, not enough people follow his example. And all the time, the waters are rising."

Philip Stoddard is particularly well-placed to judge what is happening to Miami. Tall, thin, with a dry sense of humour, he is a politician, having won two successive elections to be mayor of South Miami, and a scientist, a biology professor at Florida International University. The backyard of the home that he shares with his architect wife, Grey Reid, reflects his passion for the living world. While most other South Miami residences sport bright blue swimming pools and barbecues, Stoddard has created a small lake, fringed with palms and ferns, that would do justice to the swampy Everglades near his home. Bass, koi and mosquito fish swim here, while bright dragonflies and zebra lapwing butterflies flit overhead. It is a naturalists' haven but Stoddard is under no illusions about the risks facing his home. Although several miles inland, the house is certainly not immune to the changes that threaten to engulf south Florida.

"The thing about Miami is that when it goes, it will all be gone," says Stoddard. "I used to work at Cornell University and every morning, when I went to work, I climbed more elevation than exists in the entire state of Florida. Our living-room floor here in south Miami is at an elevation of 10 feet above sea level at present. There are significant parts of south Florida that are less than six feet above sea level and which are now under serious threat of inundation."

Nor will south Florida have to wait that long for the devastation to come. Long before the seas have risen a further three or four feet, there will be irreversible breakdowns in society, he says. "Another foot of sea-level rise will be enough to bring salt water into our fresh water supplies and our sewage system. Those services will be lost when that happens," says Stoddard.

"You won't be able to flush away your sewage and taps will no longer provide homes with fresh water. Then you will find you will no longer be able to get flood insurance for your home. Land and property values will plummet and people will start to leave. Places like South Miami will no longer be able to raise enough taxes to run our neighbourhoods. Where will we find the money to fund police to protect us or fire services to tackle house fires? Will there even be enough water pressure for their fire hoses? It takes us into all sorts of post-apocalyptic scenarios. And that is only with a one-foot sea-level rise. It makes one thing clear though: mayhem is coming."

And then there is the issue of Turkey Point nuclear plant, which lies 24 miles south of Miami. ...

. . .

[Nick]

Interesting article. It reminds me of Baiae, near Pozzuoli:

Baiae was for several hundred years a fashionable resort, especially towards the end of the Roman Republic. Baiae was even more popular than Pompeii, Herculaneum, and Capri with the super-rich, notorious for the hedonistic temptations on offer, and for rumours of scandal and corruption. Baiae was an integral part of Portus Julius, home port of the western Imperial Fleet of ancient Rome. Baiae was sacked by Muslim raiders in the 8th century AD and was deserted because of malaria by 1500. Because of coastal subsidence most of Baiae is now under water in the Bay of Naples, largely due to local volcanic activity.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baiae

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by Nick

Interesting article. It reminds me of Baiae, near Pozzuoli:

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baiae

"Hence the construction work at Alton Road, where $400m is now being spent in an attempt to halt these devastating floods – by improving Miami Beach's stricken system of drains and sewers. In total, around $1.5bn is to be invested in projects aimed at holding back the rising waters. Few scientists believe the works will have a long-term effect."


Obvious rhetorical query:

What happened to "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"??

Despite the question being rhetorical, I will give a reply.

The climate deniers do not care about future costs, since they will not have
to pay them. They only care about their short term profits.

Has anyone given an economic estimate for the cost of the sea-level
rise over the next century?