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Old 2022-02-24, 16:37   #45
Dr Sardonicus
 
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Originally Posted by xilman View Post
He already has Poland on his border, as well as the Baltic republics. Kalingrad [sic] is part of Russia.
And then there's that other NATO member just across the Bering Strait...
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Old 2022-02-24, 16:56   #46
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Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
I am reminded of the (purported) "Chinese curse," May you live in interesting times. Supposedly, "interesting" means something like "fraught with tumult, peril, misery, carnage, destruction, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera" - that is, "interesting" to future historians.

This seems implausible as a curse however, since both the curser and the person being cursed are already living, and "the times" is the present - now. If the times are, or are soon to become "interesting," would not the curser be condemned to live in "interesting times" also?
Therefore, a curse best visited upon the younger by the older. And to include uncertainty in general, and pestilence, famine, and other forms of insecurity.
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Old 2022-02-24, 17:12   #47
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Europe import 40% of its natural gaz from Russia. "We" (as in Europeans) can get of Liquified natural gaz from USA. But we lack the factories to re-gazify it. A new factory to do the job take at least a year to build. In a 'live' chat of a serious newspaper , a CEO of an energy provider said



The link in the quote is a paywalled article.
*- Russia has the largest natural gas reserves in the world
*- Iran has the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world
*- Iran regularly imports natural gas for internal use
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Old 2022-02-24, 17:16   #48
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Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
And then there's that other NATO member just across the Bering Strait...
Well, if you are going that far, consider Norway and Turkey at least.
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Old 2022-02-24, 17:40   #49
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"Might have" seen some "indication?" That's risibly vague. Sounds like mere pipe dreams and phantasms to me. No? OK, then: Who do you think is pulling Putin's strings? Names. Positions. Evidence.
To be very clear and as explicit as I can possibly be... This is simply ***my*** personal opinion, based on the reports and other "chatter" I have read.

I could be completely wrong; most likely am. But I still think this whole thing is largely driven by profit rather than ideology.

Yes, people are going to die directly because of this conflict. People die every single day. They are rather good at it, actually...

WRT your direct question, I cannot give names nor positions of who is behind almost anything.

But... I know for a fact that every serious entity has teams of people (and nowadays, supported by amazing amounts of compute) simply running "what if" scenarios.
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Old 2022-02-24, 17:43   #50
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Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Well, if you are going that far, consider Norway and Turkey at least.
Ballistic trajectories are rather trivial now. Even Trumps' boyfriend has demonstrated this under *extreme* sanctions.
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Old 2022-02-24, 17:44   #51
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Well, if you are going that far, consider Norway and Turkey at least.
There are no other countries between the US and the USSR in the Bering Strait. IIRC there are two little islands, one Russian, one US, pretty close to each other.

As to Turkey: If memory serves, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane involved in Putin's adventure in Syria in 2015 or so...
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Old 2022-02-24, 18:29   #52
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There are no other countries between the US and the USSR in the Bering Strait.
Norway shares a border with Russia. As does PRK
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Old 2022-02-24, 18:46   #53
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To be very clear and as explicit as I can possibly be... This is simply ***my*** personal opinion, based on the reports and other "chatter" I have read.

I could be completely wrong; most likely am. But I still think this whole thing is largely driven by profit rather than ideology.
I don't think that the prospect of someone profiting from a situation is evidence that they orchestrated it.
Quote:
WRT your direct question, I cannot give names nor positions of who is behind almost anything.
Well, I can give you a name and position of who's behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Vladimir Putin. He is the President of the Russian Federation.
Quote:
But... I know for a fact that every serious entity has teams of people (and nowadays, supported by amazing amounts of compute) simply running "what if" scenarios.
<snip>
Contingency planning (running what-if scenarios) is not the same thing as running the show.

On the economic front, it looks like the ruble is not faring well, and the Moscow Exchange is giving "bear market" a whole new meaning

The price of oil has jumped. No surprise there.
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Old 2022-02-24, 19:54   #54
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Well, I can give you a name and position of who's behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Vladimir Putin. He is the President of the Russian Federation.Contingency planning (running what-if scenarios) is not the same thing as running the show.
OK. Point taken.

I agree with you... There's always someone who ultimately is responsible for the decisions.

We /try/ to get away from "Thank you Supreme and all-knowing Leader" in this modern-day. We don't always achieve this optimal ideal. In many situations.

But, as anyone who has done "boss management" knows, it's not that difficult to make the decision-makers to make the decisions desired (part of the process: making them think it was their own idea, and thus must be championed)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
On the economic front, it looks like the ruble is not faring well, and the Moscow Exchange is giving "bear market" a whole new meaning

The price of oil has jumped. No surprise there.
Exactly as projected in every model.

If I may please share... I had to translate my atoms today, so I listened to the BBC World radio stream while driving... From my perspective, there was very little new knowledge. Mostly just Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD).

Again, exactly as expected.

P.S. @Dr. Sardonicus et al. I truly appreciate being able to debate this kind of thing with serious people. I am often wrong; I like to be told when I am incorrect earlier rather than later.

P.P.S. A serious question to everyone... I listened to President Biden's speech just now. Do you think he was the sole decision-maker wrt the US of A's response to date?
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Old 2022-02-24, 20:17   #55
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P.P.S. A serious question to everyone... I listened to President Biden's speech just now. Do you think he was the sole decision-maker wrt the US of A's response to date?
https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/public...4-1563.tif.jpg
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