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Old 2022-02-20, 21:34   #1
Batalov
 
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Exclamation Ukraine cries. Everyone is lying. UN expresses 'deep concerns'


"Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. We have no weapons. And no security... But we have a right -- a right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement* to one ensuring security and peace," said Volodymyr Zelensky.

Quote:
Three years ago, it was here that Angela Merkel said: “Who will pick up the wreckage of the world order? Only all of us, together." The audience gave a standing ovation. But, unfortunately, the collective applause did not grow into collective action. And now, when the world is talking about the threat of a great war, the question arises: is there anything left to pick up? The security architecture in Europe and the world is almost destroyed. It's too late to think about repairs, it's time to build a new system. Mankind has done this twice, paying too high a price - two world wars. We have a chance to break this trend until it becomes a consistent pattern. And start building a new system before millions of victims. Having the old lessons of the First and Second World Wars, not our own experience of the possible third, God forbid.
Good speech. But will there be any action?
_________

P.S. there were some early warning posts in "Nuclear security" thread, and here they are. However, I am afraid we need a new thread.
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Old 2022-02-20, 22:05   #2
chalsall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Batalov View Post
Good speech. But will there be any action?
I have a working theory that Putin giggles in his sleep.

His handlers, on the other hand, are working the long game. China is important to consider on the board.
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Old 2022-02-20, 22:38   #3
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Well, if this does start WW-III, it would be the 1st major conflict in the history of the world which is not based on religious/ideological doctrines (at the root), since both sides have identical ideology (or so I assume).
Perhaps that is enough to avoid significant escalation.
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Old 2022-02-20, 23:16   #4
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Perhaps that is enough to avoid significant escalation.
Follow the money... Seriously. Why do you think fuel costs are rising? Who benefits?
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Old 2022-02-20, 23:27   #5
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Agreed, it’s more like two neighbors fretting over where the fence should be erected. Not likely they will burn down the yard.
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Old 2022-02-21, 02:17   #6
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"The essence of such a crisis is that it leads neither side to be in full control of events, which creates a serious risk of miscalculation and escalation." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brinkmanship

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wishful_thinking
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Old 2022-02-21, 03:15   #7
chalsall
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Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
"The essence of such a crisis is that it leads neither side to be in full control of events, which creates a serious risk of miscalculation and escalation."
Some find opportunities within chaos.
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Old 2022-02-21, 13:51   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a1call View Post
Well, if this does start WW-III, it would be the 1st major conflict in the history of the world which is not based on religious/ideological doctrines (at the root), since both sides have identical ideology (or so I assume).
Perhaps that is enough to avoid significant escalation.
I would question whether the Mongol or Roman conquests were about religion or ideology. I don't think there can be much question about their being major conflicts.

But "at the root," the Mongols wanted land, and the Romans always needed more slaves.

Surely the Iran-Iraq War was a major conflict. AFAIK it wasn't about religion of ideology, but Saddam Hussein's worry that Iran might foment a revolution in his country, and his belief that he could somehow win a war against a much larger country. Perhaps his invasion of Kuwait doesn't qualify as a "major conflict," but it looked to me like a straightforward land grab. And when he had to leave, he did burn down the yard on his way out.

I commented on the present situation WRT Ukraine over a month ago over in the "Unclear Security" thread.

Alas, a lot of my fellow-countrymen seem not to care a whit about the prospect of Russia invading Ukraine. "Not our problem."

The R's wrote a "take it easy on Russia about Ukraine" plank into their 2016 campaign platform following Russia's invasion and occupation of the Crimean Peninsula after the Sochi Olympics.

Now, having abandoned our country's ideals altogether, they are busy trying to erase its history of failing to live up to them and replace it with jingoism.

In order to fill the resulting lacunae in the curriculum, I suggest that books with titles like "Russian for Beginners" might come in handy.

And for the R's, awards of Russia's Order of Honor all 'round.

Of course, WWIII would render all of this moot...
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Old 2022-02-21, 19:28   #9
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Mr. Putin doing his speech now...oh well.
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Old 2022-02-21, 19:39   #10
Batalov
 
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...which he finished 1 minute ago with acknowledging the self-declared two marionette "republics".

I listened to the last 20 minutes, accidentally tuning in *. He is truly a person with the 19th/early 20th century mentality an a catalyst of the same events that unrolled a hundred years ago.
__
* On 1 March 2022, Ekho Moskvy was taken off the air by Roskomnadzor due to its coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On 3 March, the Board of Directors voted to close the station down. Consequently, the youtube channel was deleted (and all associated videos)

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Old 2022-02-21, 21:27   #11
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The "West" has never acknowledged Russia's fear. In 1936 the USSR tried to get an alliance or, at least, an understanding with the West. It even crunched the revolution in Spain to try to get goodwill from the UK, all to no avail, it then turned to Germany...
IMO that fear (paranoia ?) still lingers. Integrating all the "buffer states" into NATO, instead of dissolving NATO after the fall of the one party dictatorship in the USSR is perceived as a threat.

And if politics are not always very "clean", foreign policy is almost always extremely dirty :-( Especially so since those that make the decisions are not those who die as a consequence.
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