20081002, 23:16  #1 
Sep 2008
Santa Clarita CA
2·7 Posts 
Accuracy of completion date estimates?
I'm not complaining, mind you, but on all my machines, version 25.6 seems to be making very pessimistic estimations. Almost every day, the estimated completion is nearly a full day sooner than previous estimate. Is this usual/common?

20081002, 23:34  #2 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{2}×7×389 Posts 
Since you are relatively new (a new return), it is not uncommon for a machine to have low ball estimates. How many hours a day are you letting the machine run and how many did you tell it that you were going to run? That will effect it.

20081003, 02:36  #3  
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
2^{2}×3×641 Posts 
Quote:
Prime95 does try to correct its estimates by keeping track of the ratio of actual times to estimated times. In file local.ini, there's a pair of lines like: RollingAverage=457 RollingStartTime=1222988357 RollingAverage = 1000 * (initial estimated time) / (actual time) = apparent speed of progress where 1000 = nominal RollingStartTime is when its calculation started. 457 means that actual times are a bit over twice the unadjusted estimated times. In future estimates, Prime95 multiplies its formulacalculated estimates by 1/.457 to produce displayed estimates. Apparently, from my observations, it does not do that correctly for the inprogress test. I do not know whether V25's estimation procedure differs from V24's. Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 20081003 at 02:44 

20081003, 05:51  #4 
"Jacob"
Sep 2006
Brussels, Belgium
3557_{8} Posts 
I have noted this as well for trial factoring : with Prime95 25.6, 1,5 days are added to the first expected expected date, the following intervals are not inflated though.
Jacob 
20081004, 05:02  #5 
Sep 2008
Santa Clarita CA
1110_{2} Posts 
Well, that does explain it: it's adaptive. (24 hours and 24 hours to the first question.)

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