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 2011-01-26, 20:41 #23 MyDogBuster     May 2008 Wilmington, DE 22×23×31 Posts Post to keep Riesel & Sierp threads together
 2011-02-04, 14:02 #24 rogue     "Mark" Apr 2003 Between here and the 2×2,971 Posts I took each of the conjectures where the conjectured k>1000000 and ran a range of 10000 (900000-909999) up to n=500 with the script to get an idea as to the difficulty to proving them. The following list is an extrapolation of that data, showing the number of expected remaining k per conjecture at n=500 and n=25000, presuming that about 85% of the k would be eliminated. It is my opinion that outside of R301, that this project should be wary of anyone reserving one of these conjectures. Although I could see someone getting some of these to n=10000, n=25000 seems to be out of the question. I wonder if we should reject any reservations on the other bases because management would be nightmarish. Code: Base Conjectured k Exp k at n=500 Exp k at n=25000 885 1041492 17914 2687 301 1061982 5532 830 508 1225673 19366 2905 955 1333860 24276 3641 847 1357806 24712 3707 913 1368714 35997 5400 267 1432662 73496 11024 486 1525283 20286 3043 276 1552307 40205 6031 547 1556732 64449 9667 673 1617938 76367 11455 106 1626615 56444 8467 990 1684699 37232 5585 831 1721084 32528 4879 886 1758033 29887 4483 391 1820454 19115 2867 793 1834536 63658 9549 705 1881842 52127 7819 427 2080614 33082 4962 765 2114542 29815 4472 346 2119475 39846 5977 196 2215067 10189 1528 130 2443673 23459 3519 126 2767077 10515 1577 462 2924772 28663 4299 240 2952972 28644 4297 385 3449490 14833 2225 735 3536594 36781 5517 201 3669230 23483 3522 124 3730449 59314 8897 721 3966270 38473 5771 915 3970630 50824 7624 907 4050362 109765 16465 691 4306490 94743 14211 453 4658266 91768 13765 651 4965144 24826 3724 238 5415261 56319 8448 586 5906982 59661 8949 561 5975464 215714 32357 817 6189398 100887 15133 420 6548233 41909 6286 180 7674582 71374 10706 525 8364188 75278 11292 205 8450016 36335 5450 715 9745298 354729 53209 1015 11049380 62981 9447 546 11732602 80955 12143 570 12511182 128865 19330 726 12751579 210401 31560 261 13061094 86203 12930 585 14271738 196950 29543 541 15546458 175675 26351 330 16527822 666071 99911 400 20080878 955850 143378 865 21155948 308877 46332 963 22349616 590030 88505 760 22676277 829952 124493 777 23485096 382807 57421 630 24412760 278305 41746 481 25956422 207651 31148 556 26019699 395499 59325 796 27199220 410708 61606 358 27606383 1101495 165224 801 40381102 468421 70263 690 42053568 529875 79481 925 44751264 2447894 367184 271 50389004 428307 64246 876 51768432 2112152 316823 756 54604682 513284 76993 456 76303920 2731680 409752 891 79570190 1193553 179033 210 80176412 2701945 405292 1020 94655888 927628 139144 66 101954772 244691 36704 325 112882226 699870 104981 631 149801300 5932131 889820 120 166616308 5881556 882233 906 171998037 2528371 379256 63 187258666 2340733 351110 175 278467080 3425145 513772 700 343498413 2507538 376131 85 398534880 13709600 2056440 195 582483712 7339295 1100894 966 699327630 6853411 1028012 141 960608630 34581911 5187287 71 1132052528 47433001 7114950 345 1295243216 16838162 2525724 399 1558133564 20567363 3085104 156 2113322677 24514543 3677181 946 2156122023 81285800 12192870 415 3246826818 63637806 9545671 921 10667550454 247487171 37123076 435 31732727570 1339121103 200868165 960 61681833328 2646150650 396922598 127 93902377422 3615241531 542286230 981 112303013130 4514581128 677187169 826 131420459393 3351221715 502683257 799 1885767686976 98059919723 14708987958 661 2518794379382 73296916440 10994537466 910 5005381602981 43046281786 6456942268 855 7419914968008 320540326618 48081048993 511 40789000085994 199866100421 29979915063 280 513613045571841 6111995242305 916799286346
2011-02-04, 18:57   #25
gd_barnes

May 2007
Kansas; USA

10,223 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rogue I took each of the conjectures where the conjectured k>1000000 and ran a range of 10000 (900000-909999) up to n=500 with the script to get an idea as to the difficulty to proving them. The following list is an extrapolation of that data, showing the number of expected remaining k per conjecture at n=500 and n=25000, presuming that about 85% of the k would be eliminated. It is my opinion that outside of R301, that this project should be wary of anyone reserving one of these conjectures. Although I could see someone getting some of these to n=10000, n=25000 seems to be out of the question. I wonder if we should reject any reservations on the other bases because management would be nightmarish.
Thanks for the interesting info.

I wouldn't reject reservations outright but I would, as I've done in the past, drill someone on exactly how they plan to test such a range. I also look at their number of posts and general experience level around the mersenneforum. Frequently when I tell them the amount of work involved, they choose something different, reduce their reservation, or as I've had happen a few times, they just go away.

Where did you get the 85% reduction in k's remaining from n=500 to n=2500? In my experience, for low-conjectured bases, it's about 35% and for high-conjectured bases, it's close to 50% for a 5-fold increase in n-value. That's an average with a fairly wide variation in specific bases. (I've run a lot of bases with ck<10K from n=1K to 5K in my effort to do all bases with < x number of k's remaining at n=5K.)

You might run a few k=1000 ranges from these up to n=2500 just to convince yourself of the fact that 85% is too high of a reduction. Remember that S63 has about a 76% reduction from n=1K to 10K but that's a 10-fold increase (vs. 5-fold from n=500 to 2500) in n-value and S63 is much higher-weight than most bases, as are most b=2^q-1 and b==(1 mod 30) bases.

Gary

Last fiddled with by gd_barnes on 2011-02-04 at 19:04

2011-02-04, 19:40   #26
rogue

"Mark"
Apr 2003
Between here and the

134668 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gd_barnes Thanks for the interesting info. I wouldn't reject reservations outright but I would, as I've done in the past, drill someone on exactly how they plan to test such a range. I also look at their number of posts and general experience level around the mersenneforum. Frequently when I tell them the amount of work involved, they choose something different, reduce their reservation, or as I've had happen a few times, they just go away. Where did you get the 85% reduction in k's remaining from n=500 to n=2500? In my experience, for low-conjectured bases, it's about 35% and for high-conjectured bases, it's close to 50% for a 5-fold increase in n-value. That's an average with a fairly wide variation in specific bases. (I've run a lot of bases with ck<10K from n=1K to 5K in my effort to do all bases with < x number of k's remaining at n=5K.) You might run a few k=1000 ranges from these up to n=2500 just to convince yourself of the fact that 85% is too high of a reduction. Remember that S63 has about a 76% reduction from n=1K to 10K but that's a 10-fold increase (vs. 5-fold from n=500 to 2500) in n-value and S63 is much higher-weight than most bases, as are most b=2^q-1 and b==(1 mod 30) bases.
I stated an upper n of 25000, not 2500. I don't know if that affects what you have written.

2011-02-04, 22:48   #27
gd_barnes

May 2007
Kansas; USA

100111111011112 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rogue I stated an upper n of 25000, not 2500. I don't know if that affects what you have written.
I must be losing my mind. I thought it said n=2500. That sounds pretty close for n=25K. Sorry for the confusion.

 2011-02-13, 18:54 #28 Puzzle-Peter     Jun 2009 12368 Posts The table in the first post says the lowest remaining CK is >1000 but Vassilis stats page says there are 3.2% of the 100
2011-02-13, 19:04   #29
Mathew

Nov 2009

2×173 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Puzzle-Peter The table in the first post says the lowest remaining CK is >1000 but Vassilis stats page says there are 3.2% of the 100
I think the catch is the 3.2% are in the "Testing just started" phase. They are reserved, hence removed from the first post. When the results are returned Vassilis' stats page will update accordingly.

2011-02-14, 00:38   #30
vmod

Mar 2010
Hampshire, UK

3·17 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mathew Steine I think the catch is the 3.2% are in the "Testing just started" phase. They are reserved, hence removed from the first post. When the results are returned Vassilis' stats page will update accordingly.
Correct. The script will count a conjecture as tested only after a search limit and the number of k's remaining are shown.

 2014-09-01, 17:22 #31 MyDogBuster     May 2008 Wilmington, DE 1011001001002 Posts Table audited 9/1/2014 - It now matches the automated list
 2015-10-03, 15:07 #32 KEP Quasi Admin Thing     May 2005 3AA16 Posts Please remove the R66 conjecture from the untested Riesel conjectures and if more "just started" bases remain in the untested list, then please remove them. If this thread is not correct it makes it hard for me to show the correct progress in the Overall project progress thread at srbase. Thank you.
2015-10-04, 04:42   #33
gd_barnes

May 2007
Kansas; USA

10,223 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KEP Please remove the R66 conjecture from the untested Riesel conjectures and if more "just started" bases remain in the untested list, then please remove them. If this thread is not correct it makes it hard for me to show the correct progress in the Overall project progress thread at srbase. Thank you.
Done. The first post in these threads are manually updated and are intended as a guideline only. They are checked from time-to-time but there cannot be a 100% guarantee of their accuracy at all times. My suggestion is for you to use the automated status page at http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/tab/CRUS_tab.htm.

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