mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Prime Search Projects > Conjectures 'R Us

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2017-04-01, 08:54   #1
KEP
Quasi Admin Thing
 
KEP's Avatar
 
May 2005

2×7×67 Posts
Default Overall Project Progress

As of April 1st 2017 the total overall progress is as follows:

563,674,901,215,566 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,170 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,972,736 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,642,894,149,240 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,494,941,423,544 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,137,835,572,784 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

648,589 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
186,421 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
835,010 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,137,836,407,794 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

38,597,564,942 Total k's tested or primed

0.0054657112706% of k's tested or primed
99.9945342887294% of k's remaining untested or unprimed

Last fiddled with by KEP on 2017-04-01 at 08:55
KEP is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 03:47   #2
VBCurtis
 
VBCurtis's Avatar
 
"Curtis"
Feb 2005
Riverside, CA

436410 Posts
Default

Stats that would be more relevant to track over the course of years than raw number of k's:
Number of bases proven
Number of bases with 1 k remaining
Number of bases with 2 k's remaining
Perhaps number of bases with 10 or fewer k's remaining
VBCurtis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 09:32   #3
gd_barnes
 
gd_barnes's Avatar
 
May 2007
Kansas; USA

237538 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VBCurtis View Post
Stats that would be more relevant to track over the course of years than raw number of k's:
Number of bases proven
Number of bases with 1 k remaining
Number of bases with 2 k's remaining
Perhaps number of bases with 10 or fewer k's remaining
We already have detailed stats for bases proven and bases with 1, 2, and 3 k's remaining:
http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...crus-stats.htm
http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/tab/CRUS_tab.htm

I too think that the total number of k's remaining on the project is not very relevant. Although I have kept a few files from testing for S280, I don't plan to ever keep track of either R280 or S280 on the pages. There are a few other huge conjectures that I don't plan to track.

I feel like KEP's statistic just encourages people to start huge bases. That is not a direction that I would like to see the project take. I would ask that people not start huge bases unless they plan to start them as part of their own side project.

Last fiddled with by gd_barnes on 2017-04-02 at 09:34
gd_barnes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 09:38   #4
gd_barnes
 
gd_barnes's Avatar
 
May 2007
Kansas; USA

11·929 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KEP View Post
As of April 1st 2017 the total overall progress is as follows:

563,674,901,215,566 Total Riesel k's to test (all bases)
142,501,532,757,170 Total Sierpinski k's to test (all bases)
706,176,433,972,736 Total k's to test (both sides, all bases)

563,642,894,149,240 Untested Riesel k's (all not fully tested bases)
142,494,941,423,544 Untested Sierpinski k's (all not fully tested bases)
706,137,835,572,784 Total untested k's (both sides, all not fully tested bases)

648,589 Remaining Riesel k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
186,421 Remaining Sierpinski k's (all fully and partially tested bases)
835,010 Remaining k's (both sides, all fully and partially tested bases)

706,137,836,407,794 Total k's remaining (both sides, untested+remaining k's)

38,597,564,942 Total k's tested or primed

0.0054657112706% of k's tested or primed
99.9945342887294% of k's remaining untested or unprimed
I think that this is misleading. Are you taking into account k's that have trivial factors for bases that have not been started? If not, that would amount to a huge reduction in the number of k's remaining. Regardless this is mostly irrevelant.

Last fiddled with by gd_barnes on 2017-04-02 at 09:38
gd_barnes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 09:42   #5
rebirther
 
rebirther's Avatar
 
Sep 2011
Germany

2,503 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
We already have detailed stats for bases proven and bases with 1, 2, and 3 k's remaining:
http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/cru...crus-stats.htm
http://www.noprimeleftbehind.net/crus/tab/CRUS_tab.htm

I too think that the total number of k's remaining on the project is not very relevant. Although I have kept a few files from testing for S280, I don't plan to ever keep track of either R280 or S280 on the pages. There are a few other huge conjectures that I don't plan to track.

I feel like KEP's statistic just encourages people to start huge bases. That is not a direction that I would like to see the project take. I would ask that people not start huge bases unless they plan to start them as part of their own side project.
I like the tracking method. Never or less we will reach these huge bases in the future.
rebirther is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 10:07   #6
gd_barnes
 
gd_barnes's Avatar
 
May 2007
Kansas; USA

11×929 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rebirther View Post
I like the tracking method. Never or less we will reach these huge bases in the future.
The tracking method does not reduce the number of k's remaining for k's with trivial factors or algebraic factors on bases that have not been started. I say that because it would take a tremendous amount of time to get that figure exactly correct. So it is extremely misleading. KEP can you confirm that?

Bases R280 and S280 and several other conjectures could not be solved in the entire life of the known universe even with exponentional increases in computing power or with quantum computers. That's because the number of digits in the size of the final prime would be greater than the number of electrons in the entire universe. I'm not talking actual size of the prime; I'm talking the number of digits in the size of the prime. Currently our largest known prime is over 20M digits. Primes for base 280 would have well over a googol (10^100) digits. In other words the actual prime would be well over a googolplex [10^(10^100)]. There's not enough power in the entire universe to solve it. It's pointless to start many of these bases.

With the exception of bases 3/7/15, I do not plan to attempt to track any base with a conjecture > 1e9 on the pages. It is way too much effort. Others are welcome to track them as a side project and I can put a link to that project on the pages. I currently cringe when people start bases with conjectures > 1e6 now. Bases with over 10,000 k's remaining are a lot of admin effort.

If someone wants to start a side project for bases with conjectures over 1e9 I'm very much in favor of it.

Last fiddled with by gd_barnes on 2017-04-02 at 10:09
gd_barnes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 12:45   #7
MisterBitcoin
 
MisterBitcoin's Avatar
 
"Nuri, the dragon :P"
Jul 2016
Good old Germany

11·67 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
The tracking method does not reduce the number of k's remaining for k's with trivial factors or algebraic factors on bases that have not been started. I say that because it would take a tremendous amount of time to get that figure exactly correct. So it is extremely misleading. KEP can you confirm that?

Bases R280 and S280 and several other conjectures could not be solved in the entire life of the known universe even with exponentional increases in computing power or with quantum computers. That's because the number of digits in the size of the final prime would be greater than the number of electrons in the entire universe. I'm not talking actual size of the prime; I'm talking the number of digits in the size of the prime. Currently our largest known prime is over 20M digits. Primes for base 280 would have well over a googol (10^100) digits. In other words the actual prime would be well over a googolplex [10^(10^100)]. There's not enough power in the entire universe to solve it. It's pointless to start many of these bases.

With the exception of bases 3/7/15, I do not plan to attempt to track any base with a conjecture > 1e9 on the pages. It is way too much effort. Others are welcome to track them as a side project and I can put a link to that project on the pages. I currently cringe when people start bases with conjectures > 1e6 now. Bases with over 10,000 k's remaining are a lot of admin effort.

If someone wants to start a side project for bases with conjectures over 1e9 I'm very much in favor of it.

It might be usefull to add on more admin to CRUS to focus on bases ck>1e6. That would reduce the amount of admin time for you.
I did some testings on S280. Sofar I can see on S280 and S540 the prime density is rising on higher k-values. We can even see the same on S3.
I might usefull to start any base with ck<1e6 before starting any other base. (exept 280)
MisterBitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 13:23   #8
KEP
Quasi Admin Thing
 
KEP's Avatar
 
May 2005

2×7×67 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gd_barnes View Post
The tracking method does not reduce the number of k's remaining for k's with trivial factors or algebraic factors on bases that have not been started. I say that because it would take a tremendous amount of time to get that figure exactly correct. So it is extremely misleading. KEP can you confirm that?
No this tracking method, does not remove the k's with trivial and algebraric factors, from the amount of untested k's. However it does remove the k's that you do not show on your website, from the number of remaining k's, from the fully started ranges (ranges=fully started conjecture or partially started and now shown on the CRUS website conjecture).

Since srbsieve is not really using much effort to track down the trivially factored and GFN k's, I really don't see the harm in waiting for the day that all ranges are started, to have a statistics that does only show the k's remaining that actually requires quite an effort to remove from the overall total of k's remaining

Well, since I solved my problems with accessing srbase (by using the new adress), I think I'll just post there for the future as I did for the past. It really doesn't seem like anyone here (who isn't able to find the stats at srbase website) bothers about these stats, so for the future I'll post an update at srbase website

And no, this was not to encourage anyone to start big bases, it was what it is, just plain statistics on how much effort has been done and what remains to be done
KEP is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 13:26   #9
KEP
Quasi Admin Thing
 
KEP's Avatar
 
May 2005

2×7×67 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by VBCurtis View Post
Stats that would be more relevant to track over the course of years than raw number of k's:
Number of bases proven
Number of bases with 1 k remaining
Number of bases with 2 k's remaining
Perhaps number of bases with 10 or fewer k's remaining
Well, it was also available on the srbase advanced version of the overall project progress. I however need to recontruct my spreadsheet, so it actually isn't as time consuming to show how many conjectures remain with a given amount of k's remaining. Also I need to have a better spreadsheet created, to better know how many conjectures are tested to a given n

I'm not sure, when, but it will happen over the next months, maybe around may 1st, you will again see the advanced stats returning to srbase.
KEP is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-02, 14:09   #10
MisterBitcoin
 
MisterBitcoin's Avatar
 
"Nuri, the dragon :P"
Jul 2016
Good old Germany

11·67 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by KEP View Post
Well, it was also available on the srbase advanced version of the overall project progress. I however need to recontruct my spreadsheet, so it actually isn't as time consuming to show how many conjectures remain with a given amount of k's remaining. Also I need to have a better spreadsheet created, to better know how many conjectures are tested to a given n

I'm not sure, when, but it will happen over the next months, maybe around may 1st, you will again see the advanced stats returning to srbase.
I´d like to see these stats here, too. :)
MisterBitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2017-04-03, 21:12   #11
MyDogBuster
 
MyDogBuster's Avatar
 
May 2008
Wilmington, DE

22×23×31 Posts
Default

Quote:
99.9945342887294% of k's remaining untested or unprimed
I find it very disappointing that after 9 years and about 200 million tests by me, that the above stat is true. Doesn't instill get up and go. I'd rather not know.
MyDogBuster is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Progress bsquared YAFU 20 2014-05-22 16:52
Progress R.D. Silverman Factoring 0 2012-05-22 14:03
Special project #3b - Project 400 schickel Aliquot Sequences 307 2011-10-28 01:29
Special project #3a - Project 300 schickel Aliquot Sequences 29 2011-08-12 17:45
In Progress? R.D. Silverman Cunningham Tables 33 2010-05-07 14:02

All times are UTC. The time now is 15:03.

Tue Oct 20 15:03:33 UTC 2020 up 40 days, 12:14, 1 user, load averages: 3.01, 2.95, 2.81

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.