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Old 2012-09-02, 22:29   #1
Stargate38
 
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Question Chance of living N years? What's the formula for that?

Can someone please give me a formula for calculating the chance of living N years, given your current age? I really want to know so I can calculate the probability of living to the age of 1000 years or maybe even 4198862272127 years (if the formula holds for that high a number). Also, I need a table to check against the formula.
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Old 2012-09-02, 22:33   #2
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Google "actuarial tables life expectancy".
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Old 2012-09-02, 22:36   #3
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What's the formula used on those?
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Old 2012-09-02, 22:40   #4
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If you're asking for God's formula, I'm afraid we won't see it in this lifetime.

Otherwise, actuarial science uses empirical evidence along with probability measures to compute these values.

Since no one firm uses the same data, there is no consensus on these statistical measures. The day will come when data will be centralized but insurance is still a capitalist game and historical data is still considered a private asset.

Furthermore, one can argue that historical data should be given less and less weight as the years go by. Think of the advancement of medical science but also environment contingencies which along with many other influences modify significantly the observed mortality.

On topic, the usual notation is npx, which means the probability that a person of age x survive at least n years. It is computed precisely using a mortality table and will therefore match the 'expected' result...It should also be clear at this point what the probability of what you're asking is.

You may want to search for public domain mortality tables to get some practice.

Last fiddled with by jeebee on 2012-09-02 at 22:42
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Old 2012-09-02, 22:53   #5
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If you were to remove diseases, accidents, suicide, and cancer, what would the chance of living to each of these ages be (assuming you were 21 years old right now and you aged at an inverse-logrithmic rate with respect to your age)? What's left to cause death?

Code:
100 years
200 years
600 years
2400 years
12000 years
72000 years
504000 years
4032000 years
36288000 years
3628800000 years
M127 years
M43112609 years
MM127 years
1010[sup]100[/sup] years
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Old 2012-09-02, 23:00   #6
retina
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stargate38 View Post
What's left to cause death?
The Big Rip?
The Big Freeze?
The Big Crunch?
The Big Bounce?
Boredom?
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Old 2012-09-02, 23:05   #7
Stargate38
 
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Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more?

Last fiddled with by Stargate38 on 2012-09-02 at 23:07
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Old 2012-09-02, 23:12   #8
retina
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stargate38 View Post
Assuming you could take a wormhole to the youngest parallel universe everytime the current one ends, how long would you live? A Graham's number years or more?
Depends upon how you define 'live'. If it is merely for existing and keeping your heart beating then IMO that is not living. Without Mini-me to complete me I would not be living regardless of whether my physical body is still in good working condition.
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Old 2012-09-02, 23:32   #9
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*insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*
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Old 2012-09-03, 00:35   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firejuggler View Post
*insert obligatory " who want to live forever" song*
Axel Rudi Pell FTW!

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Old 2012-09-03, 00:36   #11
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