mersenneforum.org pie chart: LL attempts
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 2014-04-09, 11:19 #1 sixblueboxes     Feb 2013 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Posts pie chart: LL attempts This is a pie chart of the table here http://www.mersenne.org/report_top_500_ll/ of LL attempts over the past year. Ordered by rank of GhzDays. Only the first 20 of ~2800 are in the legend. So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime, it looks like there's still a 1/3 chance that the next discovery will go to one of the top three. Is my math right? I guess I'm also assuming that the output of each contributor is constant. Attached Thumbnails
2014-04-09, 12:05   #2
LaurV
Romulan Interpreter

Jun 2011
Thailand

25·5·59 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sixblueboxes So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime
I thought they are all prime!
Regarding the chance of each exponent to generate a mersenne prime, well, that is much lower....

2014-04-09, 13:40   #3
axn

Jun 2003

22·3·7·59 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sixblueboxes So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime
Assuming that every exponent has the same chance of being prime (which isn't actually the case, but close enough), yes, there is a better than 1/3 chance that next prime will go to one of the top 3.

EDIT:- Of course, ANONYMOUS is actually an amalgamation of all users who haven't registered an id.
EDIT2:- Hmmm... There are actually multiple ANONYMOUS there. Does that mean #3 is a single user?

Last fiddled with by axn on 2014-04-09 at 13:42

2014-04-09, 13:45   #4
Mini-Geek
Account Deleted

"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA

17×251 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by axn Assuming that every exponent has the same chance of being prime (which isn't actually the case, but close enough), yes, there is a better than 1/3 chance that next prime will go to one of the top 3.

Didn't LaurV teach you anything? Every exponent does have the same chance of being prime: 1.

2014-04-09, 13:50   #5
axn

Jun 2003

135C16 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mini-Geek Didn't LaurV teach you anything? Every exponent does have the same chance of being prime: 1.
Of course I read LaurV's comment before posting This is my attempt at balancing the pedantry

2014-04-11, 20:06   #6
Aramis Wyler

"Bill Staffen"
Jan 2013
Pittsburgh, PA, USA

3·137 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sixblueboxes So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime, it looks like there's still a 1/3 chance that the next discovery will go to one of the top three. Is my math right?
Your math isn't bad but the premise is flawed - Curtis Cooper already reserved the next 4 or 5 mersenne primes because he knows them in advance. :)

2014-04-18, 00:00   #7
Gordon

Nov 2008

7658 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Aramis Wyler Your math isn't bad but the premise is flawed - Curtis Cooper already reserved the next 4 or 5 mersenne primes because he knows them in advance. :)
He didn't get M2976221 in advance...

 2014-04-18, 04:12 #8 LaurV Romulan Interpreter     Jun 2011 Thailand 223408 Posts @Gordon: That is false, he knew all of them but he didn't want us to see that, so he intentionally left few behind...
2014-04-18, 14:46   #9
R.D. Silverman

Nov 2003

22×5×373 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sixblueboxes This is a pie chart of the table here http://www.mersenne.org/report_top_500_ll/ of LL attempts over the past year. Ordered by rank of GhzDays. Only the first 20 of ~2800 are in the legend. So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime,
Assuming what?

Your last statement above is complete nonsense. May I suggest that you spend some time learning some number theory and statistics?

You also need to learn how to write mathematics and to think about
what you write before you write it. For GIMPS, every
exponent that is checked is prime.

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